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Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the forecasting scenarios of land-use change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit data sets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United...
Riverine exports of organic and inorganic carbon (OC, IC) to oceans are intricately linked to processes occurring on land. Across high latitudes, thawing permafrost, alteration of hydrologic flow paths, and changes in vegetation may all affect this flux, with subsequent implications for regional and global carbon (C) budgets. Using a unique, multi-decadal dataset of continuous discharge coupled with water chemistry measurements for the Mackenzie River, we show major increases in dissolved OC (DOC) and IC (as alkalinity) fluxes since the early 1970s, for a watershed that covers 1.8 M km2 of northwestern Canada, and provides substantial inputs of freshwater and biogeochemical constituents to the Arctic Ocean. Over...
Cultivated lands in the U.S. Midwest have been affected by soil erosion, causing soil organic carbon (SOC) redistribution in the landscape and other environmental and agricultural problems. The importance of SOC redistribution on soil productivity and crop yield, however, is still uncertain. In this study, we used a model framework, which includes the Unit Stream Power-based Erosion Deposition (USPED) and the Tillage Erosion Prediction (TEP) models, to understand the soil and SOC redistribution caused by water and tillage erosion in two agricultural fields in the U.S. Midwest. This model framework was evaluated for different digital elevation model (DEM) spatial resolutions (10-m, 24-m, 30-m, and 56-m) and topographic...
Quantitative assessment of forest burn severity and determination of its spatial variation are important for post-fire forest restoration and forest fire management. In this paper, we assessed forest burn severity using pre- and post-fire Landsat TM/ETM+ data and field-surveyed data and explored the spatial variation in burn severity and its influencing factors. Our results showed a relatively strong linear relationship between normalized burn ratio (NBR) and composite burn index (CBI) (R2 = 0.63), suggesting that NBR was the best spectral index and could be used to assess forest burn severity in Heilongjiang Province. The forest burn severity showed obvious spatial variation. The majority of heavily burned areas...
A warming climate influences boreal forest productivity, dynamics, and disturbance regimes. We used ecosystem models and 250 m satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data averaged over the growing season (GSN) to model current, and estimate future, ecosystem performance. We modeled Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), or anticipated productivity, in undisturbed stands over the 2000–2008 period from a variety of abiotic data sources, using a rule-based piecewise regression tree. The EEP model was applied to a future climate ensemble A1B projection to quantify expected changes to mature boreal forest performance. Ecosystem Performance Anomalies (EPA), were identified as the residuals of the EEP and...
Quantification of aboveground biomass (AGB) in Alaska’s boreal forest is essential to the accurate evaluation of terrestrial carbon stocks and dynamics in northern high-latitude ecosystems. Our goal was to map AGB at 30 m resolution for the boreal forest in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska using Landsat data and ground measurements. We acquired Landsat images to generate a 3-year (2008–2010) composite of top-of-atmosphere reflectance for six bands as well as the brightness temperature (BT). We constructed a multiple regression model using field-observed AGB and Landsat-derived reflectance, BT, and vegetation indices. A basin-wide boreal forest AGB map at 30 m resolution was generated by applying the regression model...
Global land-use/land-cover (LULC) change projections and historical datasets are typically available at coarse grid resolutions and are often incompatible with modeling applications at local to regional scales. The difficulty of downscaling and reapportioning global gridded LULC change projections to regional boundaries is a barrier to the use of these datasets in a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) framework. Here we compare three downscaling techniques to transform gridded LULC transitions into spatial scales and thematic LULC classes appropriate for use in a regional STSM. For each downscaling approach, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) LULC...
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters (+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated...
Climate change coupled with an intensifying wildfire regime is becoming an important driver of permafrost loss and ecosystem change in the northern boreal forest. There is a growing need to understand the effects of fire on the spatial distribution of permafrost and its associated ecological consequences. We focus on the effects of fire a decade after disturbance in a rocky upland landscape in the interior Alaskan boreal forest. Our main objectives were to (1) map near-surface permafrost distribution and drainage classes and (2) analyze the controls over landscape-scale patterns of post-fire permafrost degradation. Relationships among remote sensing variables and field-based data on soil properties (temperature,...
Abstract: Time series Landsat data have been used to track ecosystem disturbances using an algorithm such as the vegetation change tracker. However, efficiently identifying and separating types of disturbances (e.g., wildfires and harvests) still remain a technical challenge. In this letter, we tested the support vector machine algorithm in separating forest disturbance types, including wildfires, harvests, and other disturbance types (a generalized disturbance class, including insect disease outbreak, tornado, snow damage, and drought-induced mortality) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) using annual Landsat images from 1984 to 2010. The algorithm has been proven to be highly reliable, with overall accuracy...
Inland water ecosystems dynamically process, transport, and sequester carbon. However, the transport of carbon through aquatic environments has not been quantitatively integrated in the context of terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present the first integrated assessment, to our knowledge, of freshwater carbon fluxes for the conterminous United States, where 106 (range: 71–149) teragrams of carbon per year (TgC⋅y−1) is exported downstream or emitted to the atmosphere and sedimentation stores 21 (range: 9–65) TgC⋅y−1 in lakes and reservoirs. We show that there is significant regional variation in aquatic carbon flux, but verify that emission across stream and river surfaces represents the dominant flux at 69 (range:...
The Upper Mississippi River, engineered for river navigation in the 1930s, includes a series of low-head dams and navigation pools receiving elevated sediment and nutrient loads from the mostly agricultural basin. Using high-resolution, spatially resolved water quality sensor measurements along 1385 river kilometers, we show that primary productivity and organic matter accumulation affect river carbon dioxide and methane emissions to the atmosphere. Phytoplankton drive CO2to near or below atmospheric equilibrium during the growing season, while anaerobic carbon oxidation supports a large proportion of the CO2 and CH4 production. Reductions of suspended sediment load, absent of dramatic reductions in nutrients, will...
The U.S. Corn Belt is one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world and is drained by the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), which forms one of the largest drainage basins in the U.S. While the effects of agricultural nitrate (NO3−) on water quality in the UMR have been well documented, its impact on the production of nitrous oxide (N2O) has not been reported. Using a novel equilibration technique, we present the largest data set of freshwater dissolved N2O concentrations (0.7 to 6 times saturation) and examine the controls on its variability over a 350 km reach of the UMR. Driven by a supersaturated water column, the UMR was an important atmospheric N2O source (+68 mg N2O N m−2 yr−1) that varies nonlinearly...
High-latitude regions are experiencing rapid and extensive changes in ecosystem composition and function as the result of increases in average air temperature. Increasing air temperatures have led to widespread thawing and degradation of permafrost, which in turn has affected ecosystems, socioeconomics, and the carbon cycle of high latitudes. Here we overcome complex interactions among surface and subsurface conditions to map near-surface permafrost through decision and regression tree approaches that statistically and spatially extend field observations using remotely sensed imagery, climatic data, and thematic maps of a wide range of surface and subsurface biophysical characteristics. The data fusion approach...
Spatially explicit forest carbon (C) monitoring aids conservation and climate change mitigation efforts, yet few approaches have been developed specifically for the highly heterogeneous landscapes of oceanic island chains that continue to undergo rapid and extensive forest C change. We developed an approach for rapid mapping of aboveground C density (ACD; units = Mg or metric tons C ha−1) on islands at a spatial resolution of 30 m (0.09 ha) using a combination of cost-effective airborne LiDAR data and full-coverage satellite data. We used the approach to map forest ACD across the main Hawaiian Islands, comparing C stocks within and among islands, in protected and unprotected areas, and among forests dominated by...
Organic carbon (OC) burial in lacustrine sediments represents an important sink in the global carbon cycle; however, large-scale OC burial rates are poorly constrained, primarily because of the sparseness of available data sets. Here we present an analysis of OC burial rates in water bodies of the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) that takes advantage of recently developed national-scale data sets on reservoir sedimentation rates, sediment OC concentrations, lake OC burial rates, and water body distributions. We relate these data to basin characteristics and land use in a geostatistical analysis to develop an empirical model of OC burial in water bodies of the CONUS. Our results indicate that CONUS water bodies sequester...
We quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic carbon (SOC), and water supply (recharge and runoff). For six case study watersheds we quantified the interactions of future development and changing climate on recharge, runoff and streamflow, and precipitation thresholds where dominant watershed hydrological processes shift through analysis of covariance.
The pine forests in the southern portion of the Rocky Mountains are a heterogeneous mosaic of disturbance and recovery. The most extensive and intensive stress and mortality are received from human activity, fire, and mountain pine beetles (MPB;Dendroctonus ponderosae). Understanding disturbance interactions and disturbance-succession pathways are crucial for adapting management strategies to mitigate their impacts and anticipate future ecosystem change. Driven by this goal, we assessed the forest disturbance and recovery history in the Southern Rocky Mountains Ecoregion using a 13-year time series of Landsat image stacks. An automated classification workflow that integrates temporal segmentation techniques and...
Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C)storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical...
Wildland fire is a key ecosystem process that shapes the landscape of Western United States. Changes in fire regimes can therefore have profound impact on ecosystem functions and services, including carbon cycling, habitat conditions, and biodiversity. This study examined fire regime changes in the Northern Rocky Mountain region using a landscape succession model (LANDSUMv4). The objective is to report a new method to develop fire regime condition class (FRCC) maps by comparing historical reference conditions of fire regimes – simulated using historical fire record and the LANDSUMv4 model – with current fire regimes developed using 27 years remote sensing fire product and LANDSUMv4. Results of this study indicate...