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Strong indicators of species’ sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability to climate change are provided by changes in phenology, the timing of recurring life events (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003). We possess poor information on climate induced shifts in phenology of marine organisms, especially top predators. The Gulf of Maine (GOM) Seasonal Migrants Project is an ongoing effort to determine the phenological changes occurring in the GOM across marine mammals, sea turtles, and other marine species of conservation concern. As part of that study, stranding data of injured or dead animals was explored for its utility to serve as supplemental data to amend more traditional survey data where observations are...
With the extensive loss and fragmentation of most native habitats, connectivity has become increasingly important for sustaining wildlife populations and communities. Connectivity can be defined as the extent to which the landscape facilitates or impedes the movement of organisms among patches of habitat. The goal of this project was to evaluate terrestrial connectivity across the South Central United States. We addressed this goal using a variety of approaches, including evaluating connectivity of major habitats (grasslands and forests), predicting future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species under future land-use change scenarios, assessing terrestrial vertebrate diversity in relation to habitat...
We assessed the vulnerability of ecological processes and vegetation to climate change in the US Northern Rocky Mountains with a focus on the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that climate has warmed substantially since 1900 while precipitation has increased. An index of aridity decreased until about 1980 and then increased slightly. Projected future climate indicates warming of about 3-7 degrees C by 2100 and a substantial increase in aridity, depending on climate scenario. Snow pack, soil moisture, runoff, and primary productivity are projected to decrease dramatically in summer under future climate scenarios, with snow pack and runoff declining annually. Habitat suitability for the four subalpine tree species...
Natural climate variability can obscure or enhance long-term trends in experienced weather due to climate change. This can happen temporarily on timescales of a season to several years to a decade or two. Natural variability is poorly described and attributed to specific causes, contributing to uncertainty and misunderstandings about the nature of climate change that stakeholders and resource managers attempt to anticipate. There exists, therefore, a need to clarify the magnitude and causality of natural climate variability. This connection needs to be explained for locally-experienced weather and particularly for daily extreme events, whose seasonal behavior impacts both resources and imagination. Conversely, it...
Climate impacts potentially affect all levels of park planning and management. Climate adaptation planning seeks to identify and proactively prepare for potential climate change impacts on management sectors. Taking a proactive approach can help reduce future risks, capitalize on new opportunities, and minimize losses due to climate change. Most importantly, integrating climate impacts into park planning and management will help park managers continue to meet their mission of protecting natural and cultural resources, providing recreation opportunities, and protecting the health and safety of park visitors.
This annotated bibliography is a supplement to the Guidelines for Considering Traditional Knowledges in Climate Change Initiatives and is intended to demonstrate the ways that existing is already considering TKs in law, policy and natural resource management. Additionally, this bibliography provides access to research which addresses ongoing issues surrounding the protection and use of TKs, including appropriation of Indigenous cultural and intellectual property, legal and policy hurdles that TK users and holders face in collaborating in an equitable manner with researchers, government agencies and others, and the development of research protocols to ensure just collaboration between TK holders and researchers....
This project sought to create a targeted and easily understandable guide to tools that support landscape-level planning in the face of climate change for NPLCC partners. The guide built upon previous NPLCC research on decision support needs with an emphasis on tools currently in use in the region. A survey of NPLCC partners was used to discover who is currently using or planning to use tools in the region, tools they are using, how well these tools are meeting their needs, and regional and outside experts engaged in tool use. Additional tools research provided information on tools not currently in use in the region that could also provide needed functionality. This project used a previous study of tool functional...
Changing climate conditions can make water management planning and drought preparedness decisions more complicated than ever before. Federal and State natural resource managers can no longer rely solely on historical trends as a baseline and thus are in need of science that is relevant to their specific needs to inform important planning decisions. Questions remain, however, regarding the most effective and efficient methods for extending scientific knowledge and products into management and decision-making. This project analyzed two unique cases of water management to better understand how science can be translated into resource management actions and decision-making, focusing particularly on how the context of...
Final project report for the NPLCC includes accomplishments, outreach and communication, and lessons learned.
Types: Report
Project Accomplishments: 1) A soil vulnerability index was created for the NP LCC. It is being incorporated into a visualization tool with the CA LCC in a Multi-LCC project. 2) Statistical analyses were performed on correlations between forest mortality (>50 of a stand) and soil characteristics in the NP LCC between 1997 and 2010. In California and Oregon, soil characteristics, especially available soil water storage capacity and pH were predictors in areas of tree mortality. In Washington, soil did not improve predictability of forest mortality. (unpublished) 3) New MC2 simulations were run with the AR5 data. These are available on 4) The new MC2 AR5 simulations were used in a sensitivity analysis...
The Improving Crop Coefficients for the Middle Rio Grande Project (ICCMRG Project) was completed by the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer (NMOSE) under a grant from the United States Bureau of Reclamation. The objective of the ICCMRG Project is to assess actual crop water use for the years 2011 and 2013 through remote sensing technologies that estimate the evapotranspiration (ET) of individual crops within the Middle Rio Grande (MRG). The purpose of this assessment is to verify and/or improve crop coefficient (Kc) values being used in reference ET methods, modeling, and decision making tools. Current models rely on locally calibrated methods that are decades old, or on generic ET methods that must be calibrated...
The Liaison Project increased communications between the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), other USGS Science Centers and potential collaborators including active members of the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC) included in the NC CSC area. The project was initiated with listening sessions to determine partners’ interest in liaising with the NC CSC, and USGS liaison proposals were selected based on demonstrated ability to continue and initiate relationships with state, federal, tribal, university and other partners. Increased communications has resulted in activities to co-produce knowledge to support management decisions that are impacted by climate.

map background search result map search result map Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World Annotated Bibliography: Examples of Traditional Knowledges in Climate Research Climate Adaptation Planning for British Columbia Provincial Parks: A Guidance Report Annotated Bibliography: Examples of Traditional Knowledges in Climate Research Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World Climate Adaptation Planning for British Columbia Provincial Parks: A Guidance Report