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Project Overview Climate change threatens plants and animals across the US, making it important to have tools that can efficiently assess species’ vulnerabilities. In this project, CASC scientists and NatureServe are collaborating to update a popular Climate Change Vulnerability Index to include the latest scientific data, improved metrics, and new user-friendly technology. The tool will help state biologists and scientists prioritize conservation efforts, and in time for preparing updates to State Wildlife Action Plans that are due by 2025. Project Summary Climate change is impacting our nation’s plants and animals. To take preventative actions, public land managers need to know which species are most threatened,...
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Microrefugia can play an important role in determining biological responses to climate change, but the location and characteristics of these habitats are often poorly understood. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) represent critical climatic microrefugia for species dependent on cool, moist habitats. However, knowledge of the distribution and stability of GDE microrefugia is currently lacking. This challenge is typified within moist portions of the Pacific Northwest, where poorly studied cliff-face seeps harbor exceptional biodiversity despite their diminutive size (e.g., ~1-10m width). To enable future management of these habitats as climatic microrefugia, we modeled the distribution and thermal and hydrologic...
Managing rangelands to meet social-ecological goals requires monitoring ecological indicators to inform management responses. These goals and monitoring objectives are grounded in land managers’ understandings, or mental models, of the rangeland system. Rangeland managers’ mental models are often highly place-specific, which can enable management actions to be matched to local conditions. In the western United States, ranchers and federal agency personnel, like those in the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), are two of the primary social groups involved in rangeland management. We compared ranchers’ and BLM personnel's rangeland mental models across two regions. We conducted semi-structured interviews about their...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Highlights Increase in habitat area influences recreational birdwatching in Pacific Northwest estuaries. Increase in forested and emergent wetlands create positive synergies in birdwatching, carbon and fisheries ecosystem services. Transition to aquatic vegetation bed and mudflat from sea level rise creates ecosystem service tradeoffs. Use of ecosystem services in adaptive management considers the societal value of climate adaptation decisions. Abstract Coastal ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services that are valued in diverse ways. The Nisqually River Delta (the Delta), an estuary in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., is co-managed by the Nisqually Indian Tribe and the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate vulnerability can be evaluated by multiple organismal responses. We developed a climate vulnerability framework focused on growth potential of redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss newberri). We employed a bioenergetics model to evaluate spatial variability in growth potential in relation to constraints on body size imposed by stream flow, physiological responses linked to variable thermal regimes, and variation in physiological adaptive capacity inferred from field respirometry. Results indicate that maximum size (g) of redband trout increases with stream discharge. Growth potential is strongly linked to body size, with smaller individuals performing better relative to larger fish in cooler thermal regimes....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Microrefugia can play an important role in determining biological responses to climate change, but the location and characteristics of these habitats are often poorly understood. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) represent critical climatic microrefugia for species dependent on cool, moist habitats. However, knowledge of the distribution and stability of GDE microrefugia is currently lacking. This challenge is typified within moist portions of the Pacific Northwest, where poorly studied cliff-face seeps harbor exceptional biodiversity despite their diminutive size (e.g., ~1-10m width). To enable future management of these habitats as climatic microrefugia, we modeled the distribution and thermal and hydrologic...
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Throughout the Pacific Northwest, invasive flora threaten river ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. Invasive plants harm water quality, occupy habitat for native species, reduce recreation opportunities, and damage infrastructure such as pumps and dams. Resource managers from federal, state, and local agencies, as well as local non-profits, spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on monitoring and exterminating invasive plants. Management costs and damages are likely to rise as climate change warms temperatures and reduces rainfall across the basin, expanding potential habitat for invasive plants and affecting the effectiveness of management. For some time, scientists have recognized the potential...
The State of Climate Adaptation Science for Ecosystems in the Northwest synthesizes current scientific information on expected changes in the climate, water, and ecosystems in the northwest. The purpose of this synthesis is to support natural resource managers in decision making and planning as they manage ecosystems and habitats in a changing climate. Whenever possible, the synthesis relies on literature published in the last 10 years but also includes key foundational literature and features science funded by the Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (NW CASC). Information is synthesized in accessible overview reports organized with bolded key statements and supporting information in a bulleted list. For...
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The endangered Cascade red fox, native to Washington’s southern Cascades, faces threats from climate change, habitat loss, and coyotes, which are both competitors and predators. Researchers supported by this Northwest CASC project will track Cascade red fox population sizes, movement, habitat use, and survival using GPS collars. They will use the collected data in collaboration with state, federal, and tribal agencies to develop and evaluate conservation strategies to protect the Cascade red fox in a changing environment. The Cascade red fox (CRF) is a rare, high-elevation subspecies of the red fox, now limited to Washington’s southern Cascades. Because of its scarcity, elusive nature, and lack of research,...
We modeled the distribution and thermal and hydrologic stability of cliff-face seeps across moist portions of the Pacific Northwest, USA. We conducted surveys for cliff-face seeps across ~1,600km of roads, trails, and watercourses in Washington and Idaho and monitored water availability and air and water temperatures at a subset of these seeps. We detected 457 total seeps through an iterative process involving surveying, modeling, ground-truthing, and then remodeling the spatial distribution of seeps using boosted regression trees. Additionally, we used linear and generalized linear models to assess environmental correlates of seep thermal and hydrologic stability. Seeps were generally most concentrated in steep...
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Forests in the Pacific Northwest support an extensive network of headwater streams and critical habitats for over 50 amphibian species, but face challenges from historical resource extraction, forest management, and climate change. Researchers supported by this Northwest CASC project will identify and map climate refugia to guide conservation strategies for at-risk amphibians, producing tools and resources for regional managers to enhance habitat connectivity and prioritize adaptation strategies for long-term ecosystem resilience. Forests of the Pacific Northwest have experienced substantial change over the last century, due to a legacy of resource extraction, changes in forest management practices, and the growing...
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Predicted snow disappearance dates on Moscow Mountain in Latah County, ID. Predictors used to make the map are elevation, aspect, canopy cover, and cold-air pooling.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Idaho, Latah, Moscow Mountain, biota


    map background search result map search result map Integrating Economics and Ecology to Inform Climate-Ready Aquatic Invasive Species Management for Vulnerable Pacific Northwest River Communities Map of predicted relative snow disappearance dates across Moscow Mountain in Latah County, ID FY 2023 Projects Developing a Next-Generation Climate Change Vulnerability Index in Support of Climate-Informed Natural-Resource Management Mapping Habitat Connectivity and Climate Refugia in Headwater Ecosystems to Support Amphibian Conservation Estimates of the distribution and refugial properties of cliff-face seeps across the Pacific Northwest (low-confidence predictions included) Estimates of the distribution and refugial properties of cliff-face seeps across the Pacific Northwest (high/medium confidence areas only) FY 2024 Projects Evaluating Climate-related Threats and Conservation Strategies for the Cascade Red Fox in Washington Evaluating Climate-related Threats and Conservation Strategies for the Cascade Red Fox in Washington Integrating Economics and Ecology to Inform Climate-Ready Aquatic Invasive Species Management for Vulnerable Pacific Northwest River Communities Mapping Habitat Connectivity and Climate Refugia in Headwater Ecosystems to Support Amphibian Conservation Estimates of the distribution and refugial properties of cliff-face seeps across the Pacific Northwest (high/medium confidence areas only) FY 2023 Projects Estimates of the distribution and refugial properties of cliff-face seeps across the Pacific Northwest (low-confidence predictions included) Developing a Next-Generation Climate Change Vulnerability Index in Support of Climate-Informed Natural-Resource Management