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National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with...
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Assessing the impact of flow alteration on aquatic ecosystems has been identified as a critical area of research nationally and in the Southeast U.S. This project aimed to address the Ecohydrology Priority Science Need of the SE CSC FY2012 Annual Science Work Plan by developing an inventory and evaluation of current efforts and knowledge gaps in hydrological modeling for flow-­‐ecology science in global change impact studies across the Southeast. To accomplish this goal, we completed a thorough synthesis and evaluation of hydrologic modeling efforts in the Southeast region (including all states of the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (SEAFWA) including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,...
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In the northern Gulf of Mexico, mangrove forests have been expanding their northern range limits in parts of Texas, Louisiana, and north Florida since 1989. In response to warming winter temperatures, mangroves, which are dominant in warmer climates, are expected to continue migrating northward at the expense of salt marshes, which fare better in cooler climates. The ecological implications and timing of mangrove expansion is not well understood, and coastal wetland managers need information and tools that will enable them to identify and forecast the ecological impacts of this shift from salt marsh to mangrove-dominated coastal ecosystems. To address this need, researchers will host workshops and leverage existing...
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Climate change is expected to worsen the harmful effects of invasive species on native wildlife. This presents a growing conservation challenge for invasive species managers in the southeastern United States where thousands of invasive species exist. While many of these invasive species currently have relatively small ranges in the southeastern U.S., climate change may allow them to expand into new regions. To effectively plan and respond to the redistribution of invasive species, it is crucial to coordinate existing information and identify future information needs across regional boundaries. The ultimate goal of this project is to improve invasive species management in the face of climate change by establishing...
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The objective of this project is to map the supply of ecosystem services (where natural ecosystems have the capacity to provide a certain product or service that could be of use to people), use of those services (where people or other entities that use the product or service exist), and the condition of ecosystems providing these services over time. The resulting datasets were used to generate metrics for pilot ecosystem accounts for the southeast – part of natural capital accounts that assess ecosystems’ contributions to the economy in order to help governments better understand their reliance on natural systems and manage natural resources to ensure their benefits are sustained into the future. These data were...
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Coastal wetlands and the many beneficial services they provide (e.g., purifying water, buffering storm surge, providing habitat) are changing and disappearing as a result of sea-level rise brought about by climate change. Scientists have developed a wealth of information and resources to predict and aid decision-making related to sea-level rise. However, while some of these resources are easily accessible by coastal managers, many others require more expert knowledge to understand or utilize. The goal of this project was to collate science and models pertaining to the effects of sea-level on coastal wetlands into a format that would be accessible and useful to resource managers. Researchers conducted training sessions...
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Frequent, low-intensity wildfires were once widespread across the Southeast US, which led to a reduction in unchecked vegetation growth that provided fuel for high-intensity fires. Both intentional and unintentional fire suppression and land-use changes have reduced many of these wildfires and the fire-adapted habitats in the region over time. This loss of frequent low-intensity wildfires on the landscape also increases the severity of wildfires due to fuel buildup and the encroachment of woody species. The remaining habitats and their native species (many of which are of conservation concern) are now almost completely dependent on prescribed burns for their persistence and survival. Successful application of fire...
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The continental United States (CONUS) was modeled to produce simulations of historical and potential future streamflow using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) application of the USGS National Hydrologic Model infrastructure (NHM; Regan and others, 2018). This child page specifically contains atmospheric forcings (daily minimum air temperature, daily maximum air temperature, and daily precipitation accumulation) from each of the global circulation models (GCMs) presented in table1_GCMs_used.csv, using the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 for simulating potential future streamflow for the period 2006 - 2100.
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The continental United States (CONUS) was modeled to produce simulations of historical and potential future streamflow using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) application of the USGS National Hydrologic Model infrastructure (NHM; Regan and others, 2018). This child page specifically contains outputs of streamflow for each stream segment in the model domain and is based on parameterization with dynamic land cover. The parameters that were allowed to vary were related to dominant land cover type, percent impervious area, and precipitation interception by the plant canopy and snowpack.The PRMS parameters describing vegetation and impervious area were derived from annual estimates of land cover to incorporate...
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A hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS were used to inform other types of simulations such as water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations.
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In this proposal we investigate how tree selection at the local scale affects biodiversity and ecosystem services (Obj. 1). We then look regionally to determine the extent to which trees in cities can be used to predict heat-related threats to rural forests (Obj. 2). We will leverage ongoing investigations of heat-related stress and pest outbreaks in urban and rural forests to develop management recommendations for both systems. These ongoing projects provide a knowledge-base, infrastructure (e.g. study sites), equipment (e.g. Li-Cor Photosynthesis System), and outreach opportunities that will extend the impact of this project (see Synergistic and Future Funding section below). We will also convene a working group...
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States in the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (SEAFWA) region have faced challenges when trying to develop regional plans or actions for many conservation issues. Leadership in many SEAFWA states is hesitant to approach the topic of climate change at all, let alone engage in multi-state efforts to mitigate climate impacts. Recent Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SE CASC) supported research surveyed agency directors and supervisory boards, and discovered their primary concerns revolved around agency budgets, “R3” efforts (i.e., to recruit, retain, and reactivate hunters and anglers), and public outreach to maintain social relevance. Another project supported by the SE CASC and the...
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Many shorebirds and nearshore waterbirds are of conservation concern across the Gulf of Mexico due to stressors such as human disturbance, predation, and habitat loss and degradation. Conservation and protection of these birds is important for the functioning of healthy ecosystems and for maintaining biodiversity in North America. Consequently, resource managers along the gulf need decision-aiding tools that can efficiently help to answer important conservation questions for different species (e.g. which areas and how much area should be targeted by management actions to meet a particular species’ needs). To address this need, project researchers are developing statistical models that will help identify habitat...
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The populations of many forest birds have declined in recent decades due to loss of habitat area and degradation of habitat quality. Past land management has left the landscape of the heavily forested Appalachian Mountains with too little old growth as well as too few young, regenerating forests. This change in habitat structure has led to the listing of several forest birds as Species of Greatest Conservation Need. Active management is needed to maintain habitat for these species, but climate change may alter the kinds of management that are effective. Climate change is likely to affect forest structure – and bird habitat suitability – because of shifts in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance. While current...
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The fast pace of change in coastal zones, the trillions of dollars of investment in human communities in coastal areas, and the myriad of ecosystem services natural coastal environments provide makes managing climate-related risks along coasts a massive challenge for all of the U.S. coastal states and territories. Answering questions about both the costs and the benefits of alternative adaptation strategies in the near term is critical to taxpayers, decision-makers, and to the biodiversity of the planet. There is significant public and private interest in using ecosystem based adaptation approaches to conserve critical significant ecosystems in coastal watersheds, estuaries and intertidal zones and to protect man-made...
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To better understand the impacts of climate change, ecological studies are increasingly addressing the different effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. These sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements, but a review of 18 years of ecological literature indicated that shielding practices vary across studies (when the shielding is reported at all), and that ecologists often invent and construct ad-hoc radiation shields without testing their efficacy. The project researchers performed two field experiments to examine the accuracy...
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The objective of this project was to provide scientists and the general public with access to information about the existence and operation of programs that monitor the effects of global change processes, such as climate and land use change, on important air, land, and water resources. This was a public service project intended to support both education and decision making by providing comprehensive “one stop” access to information about hundreds of monitoring programs in North Carolina and throughout the Southeast. This work aimed to provide additional development of the Global Change Monitoring Portal, which is currently in the pilot phase. Tasks included: • Compile, inventory, and map geographically, additional...
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The purpose of this grant was to provide research opportunities to students and staff working with the Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) with a focus on decision analysis and science communication. Research activities occured primarily within the framework of existing SE CSC-funded projects. Student research supported project activities associated with the development and use of science-based information to make climate adaptation management decisions. Student abilities to participate in these research activities were enhanced by participation in a course entitled “Introduction to Structured Decision Making” taught at the National Conservation Training Center (NCTC) in Shepherdstown, WV. In addition to participation...
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Coastal ecosystems are uniquely vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of freshwater discharge. With a warming climate, changes in freshwater discharge into estuaries will interact with rising sea levels. Coastal natural resource managers need guidance on the potential impacts and vulnerabilities to better manage the risks to aquatic species and habitats and to mitigate species decline or collapse resulting from changes in freshwater availability. This project will inform resource managers on the development of management plans that protect coastal ecosystems and species while accounting for changes in freshwater availability under climate uncertainty. To achieve this, the proposed project has three objectives....
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Coastal marshes are vital habitats that protect and support our coastal communities and economies by providing protection from storm surge, filtering pollutants, and providing recreational opportunities. Rising sea levels threaten marshes and jeopardize the benefits they provide to human communities and ecosystems. To preserve these benefits, coastal resource managers need to understand how marshes will change in the short- and long-term in response to rising sea levels. Scientific models provide resource managers with an effective way to visualize and understand these changes, but the numerous choices of marsh models currently available can be overwhelming to coastal managers. The similarities and differences...
map background search result map search result map Evaluating the Use of Models for Projecting Future Water Flow in the Southeast A Handbook for Resource Managers to Understand and Utilize Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Wetland Models Supporting Students and Early Career Researchers in the Development of Science to Inform Adaptation Management Decisions Global Change Monitoring Portal: Continued Work to Increase Accessibility of Data by Resource Managers SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Identifying Conservation Objectives for the Gulf Coast Habitats of the Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern Testing the Impacts of Sun Exposure and Impervious Surfaces on the Accuracy of Temperature Sensors Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Improving the Usability of Modeling Tools for Predicting Coastal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience Development of an Early Warning System to Identify Changing Prescribed Burn Opportunities Across Southeast US Fire-Adapted Habitats Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Improving Support for Regional Conservation Efforts in the Region Managed by the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Input Files for Hydrologic Simulations for the Conterminous United States for Future Conditions Using the National Hydrologic Model Infrastructure (NHM) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 Output Files from Hydrologic Simulations for the Conterminous United States for Historical and Future Conditions Using the National Hydrologic Model Infrastructure (NHM) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) with Dynamic Land Cover Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in the Freshwater/Saltwater Interface and Related Impacts to Aquatic Species Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Southeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network (SE RISCC) Testing the Impacts of Sun Exposure and Impervious Surfaces on the Accuracy of Temperature Sensors Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Identifying Conservation Objectives for the Gulf Coast Habitats of the Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern Improving the Usability of Modeling Tools for Predicting Coastal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise Southeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network (SE RISCC) Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting A Handbook for Resource Managers to Understand and Utilize Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Wetland Models Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Evaluating the Use of Models for Projecting Future Water Flow in the Southeast Supporting Students and Early Career Researchers in the Development of Science to Inform Adaptation Management Decisions Development of an Early Warning System to Identify Changing Prescribed Burn Opportunities Across Southeast US Fire-Adapted Habitats Global Change Monitoring Portal: Continued Work to Increase Accessibility of Data by Resource Managers Improving Support for Regional Conservation Efforts in the Region Managed by the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Input Files for Hydrologic Simulations for the Conterminous United States for Future Conditions Using the National Hydrologic Model Infrastructure (NHM) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 Output Files from Hydrologic Simulations for the Conterminous United States for Historical and Future Conditions Using the National Hydrologic Model Infrastructure (NHM) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) with Dynamic Land Cover Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in the Freshwater/Saltwater Interface and Related Impacts to Aquatic Species Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience