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Maintaining the native prairie lands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), which provide an important habitat for declining grassland species, requires anticipating the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and climate change on the region’s vegetation. Specifically, climate change threatens NGP grasslands by increasing the potential encroachment of native woody species into areas where they were previously only present in minor numbers. This project used a dynamic vegetation model to simulate vegetation type (grassland, shrubland, woodland, and forest) for the NGP for a range of projected future climates and relevant management scenarios. Comparing results of these simulations illustrates...
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Water scarcity is a growing concern in Texas, where surface water is derived almost entirely from rainfall. Changes in air temperature and precipitation patterns associated with global climate change are anticipated to regionally affect the quality and quantity of inland surface waters and consequently their suitability as habitat for freshwater life. In addition to directly affecting resident organisms and populations, these changes in physicochemical traits of aquatic habitats may favor the establishment of harmful invasive species. As conflicts over the use of water resources grow in intensity, this information will become important for fish and wildlife managers to anticipate impacts of climate change on trust...
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Throughout its native range in the Eastern U.S., the brook trout is a culturally and economically important species that is sensitive to warming stream temperatures and habitat degradation. The purpose of this assessment was to determine the impacts that projected future land use and climate changes might have on the condition of stream habitat to support self-sustaining brook trout populations. The study region encompassed the historic native range of brook trout, which includes the northeastern states and follows the Appalachian Mountains south to Georgia, where the distribution is limited to higher elevation streams with suitable water temperatures. Relationships between recent observations of brook trout and...
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Climate in the southeastern U.S. is predicted to be changing at a slower rate than other parts of North America; however, land use change associated with urbanization is having a significant effect on wildlife populations and habitat availability. We sought to understand the effect of global warming on both beneficial and pest insects of trees. We used urban warming as a proxy for global warming in as much as many cities have already warmed as much, due to heat island effects, as they are expected to warm due to climate change by 2050 or even 2100. We were able to develop good predictive models of how warming influences beneficial and pest insects for cities in the Southeast and across the east coast more generally....
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This data set consists of ground control points used for independent pixel-level model validation (ground_control_points.gpkg): This dataset consists of 295 points distributed across the 15 vegetation classes on the island of Lāna‘i. The points were randomly generated from the final species-specific land cover classification map and stratified by class to ensure representation across all classes. The dataset provides species-specific land cover labels for the points, with the spatial location corresponding to the pixel coordinate location on the 2m resolution land cover map. Comparing modeled class assignments to these expert-validated classes enables an independent accuracy assessment supplemental to the polygon-based...
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Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration of future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape-scale changes from urbanization, and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages...
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This data release was produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation to present the results of monitoring efforts on the Yellowstone River fish bypass channel according to the specifications of the Lower Yellowstone Adaptive Management and Monitoring Plan. The fish bypass channel was constructed to provide upstream migrating fish with a route around a diversion dam. The objective of this study is to monitor the physical and hydraulic characteristics of the bypass channel, including flow split, minimum depth for the deepest continuous 30 cross sectional feet, and mean channel velocity, which are summarized in the data files in this data release. Physical and hydraulic...
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Great Lakes fishery managers and stakeholders have little information regarding how climate change could affect the management and conservation of fish populations, including those of high recreational and commercial value. Scientists from the US Geological Survey (USGS) worked closely with state management agencies and the National Wildlife Federation to complete several objectives that provide knowledge to aid their planning and management strategies in anticipation of coming changes. First, researchers updated a regional Great Lakes climate model to predict water level changes, water temperatures, and ice cover data for the entire Great Lakes basin 50-100 years into the future. Second, researchers used satellite...
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This data set consists of ground control polygons used for model training and evaluation (ground_control_polygons.gpkg): This dataset consists of refined vegetation polygons digitized across the island of Lāna‘i representing the 15 land cover classes of interest. High-resolution aerial imagery and extensive field experience were used to iteratively collect and improve the polygons through expert review and interpretation. The polygons were divided into a 250m grid overlaying the island to balance sample size and spatial resolution while reducing spatial autocorrelation, resulting in 1,754 smaller polygons. These polygon data served as the primary dataset used to train, validate, and evaluate the classification models...
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Tens of millions of migratory birds are dependent on wetland and riparian stopovers in arid and semiarid regions of North America. Global climate change would superimpose even greater stress on these ecosystems as indicated by climate change model predictions of higher temperatures and less precipitation in the southwestern United States. In partnership with the University of Arizona, the Nebraska Cooperative Research Unit, and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USGS scientists have investigated (1) how climate change may alter the spacing and quality of critical wetland stopover habitats; (2) the sensitivities of migrating songbirds to loss of riparian forests due to climate change and water-use patterns; (3)...
    map background search result map search result map Projected Impacts of Future Climate on Bird Conservation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Forecasting Climate Change Induced Effects on Recreational and Commercial Fish Populations in the Great Lakes Modeling and Projecting the Influence of Climate Change on Texas Surface Waters and their Aquatic Biotic Communities Understanding How Warming Temperatures Will Impact Trees and Insects Using Cities as a Proxy Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Projected Vulnerability of Brook Trout to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Eastern U.S. (Regional Assessment) Informing the Identification of High-Priority Lands for the Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge Considering Future Climate and Urbanization Physical and Hydraulic Monitoring on the Yellowstone River Fish Bypass Channel, Montana, May 2022 to August 2023 High-Resolution Land Cover Maps of Lāna‘i, Hawai‘i, 2020 - Ground Control Points High-Resolution Land Cover Maps of Lāna‘i, Hawai‘i, 2020 - Ground Control Polygons Physical and Hydraulic Monitoring on the Yellowstone River Fish Bypass Channel, Montana, May 2022 to August 2023 High-Resolution Land Cover Maps of Lāna‘i, Hawai‘i, 2020 - Ground Control Points High-Resolution Land Cover Maps of Lāna‘i, Hawai‘i, 2020 - Ground Control Polygons Informing the Identification of High-Priority Lands for the Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge Considering Future Climate and Urbanization Understanding How Warming Temperatures Will Impact Trees and Insects Using Cities as a Proxy Modeling and Projecting the Influence of Climate Change on Texas Surface Waters and their Aquatic Biotic Communities Projected Impacts of Future Climate on Bird Conservation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Forecasting Climate Change Induced Effects on Recreational and Commercial Fish Populations in the Great Lakes Projected Vulnerability of Brook Trout to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Eastern U.S. (Regional Assessment)