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Filters: Tags: {"scheme":"USGS Publications Warehouse"} (X) > partyWithName: J.E. Hines (X)

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The reality is that the statistical methods used for analysis of data depend upon the availability of software. Analysis of marked animal data is no different than the rest of the statistical field. The methods used for analysis are those that are available in reliable software packages. Thus, the critical importance of having reliable, up–to–date software available to biologists is obvious. Statisticians have continued to develop more robust models, ever expanding the suite of potential analysis methodsavailable. But without software to implement these newer methods, they will languish in the abstract, and not be applied to the problems deserving them.In the Computers and Software Session, two new software packages...
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Inferences about spatial variation in species richness and community composition are important both to ecological hypotheses about the structure and function of communities and to community-level conservation and management. Few sampling programs for animal communities provide censuses, and usually some species present. We present estimators useful for drawing inferences about comparative species richness and composition between different sampling locations when not all species are detected in sampling efforts. Based on capture-recapture models using the robust design, our methods estimate relative species richness, proportion of species in one location that are also found in another, and number of species found...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Conservation Biology
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Several papers have demonstrated the advantages of collecting capture-recapture data using subsamples (i.e., Pollock?s robust design). Compared to a standard design (i.e., one sample per period), this approach (1) permits the estimation of more demographic parameters and (2) in many cases produces more efficient estimators. Program SURVIV is a powerful tool for computing parameter estimates under the robust design. However, multinomial models developed for the robust design require cells for each possible capture history that occurs across the subsamples within a period. This makes the process of entering cell probabilities in SURVIV very tedious and subject to errors. Program RDSURVIV combines SURVIV with a front...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Bird Study
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Ecology has long been troubled by the controversy over how populations are regulated. Some ecologists focus on the role of environmental effects, whereas others argue that density-dependent feedback mechanisms are central. The relative importance of both processes is still hotly debated, but clear examples of both processes acting in the same population are rare. Keyfactor analysis (regression of population changes on possible causal factors) and time-series analysis are often used to investigate the presence of density dependence, but such approaches may be biased and provide no information on actual demographic rates. Here we report on both density-dependent and density-independent effects in a murid rodent pest...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Nature
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Coloniality has mainly been studied from an evolutionary perspective, but relatively few studies have developed methods for modelling colony dynamics. Changes in number of colonies over time provide a useful tool for predicting and evaluating the responses of colonial species to management and to environmental disturbance. Probabilistic Markov process models have been recently used to estimate colony site dynamics using presence-absence data when all colonies are detected in sampling efforts. Here, we define and develop two general approaches for the modelling and analysis of colony dynamics for sampling situations in which all colonies are, and are not, detected. For both approaches, we develop a general probabilistic...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Oikos
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Dispersal in animal populations is intimately linked with accession to reproduction, i.e. recruitment, and population regulation. Dispersal processes are thus a key component of population dynamics to the same extent as reproduction or mortality processes. Despite the growing interest in spatial aspects of population dynamics, the methodology for estimating dispersal, in particular in relation with recruitment, is limited. In many animal populations, in particular vertebrates, the impossibility of following individuals over space and time in an exhaustive way leads to the need to frame the estimation of dispersal in the context of capture-recapture methodology. We present here a class of age-dependent multistate...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Oikos
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Many metapopulation models assume rules of population connectivity that are implicitly based on what we know about within-population dispersal, but especially for vertebrates, few data exist to assess whether interpopulation dispersal is just within-population dispersal "scaled up." We extended existing multi-stratum mark-release-recapture models to incorporate the robust design, allowing us to compare patterns of within- and between-population movement in the banner-tailed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys spectabilis). Movement was rare among eight populations separated by only a few hundred meters: seven years of twice-annual sampling captured >1200 individuals but only 26 interpopulation dispersers. We developed a program...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecology
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We modelled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-year-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-year-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-year maturation period of prebreeding...
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The relationship between habitat conditions in prairie breeding areas of North America and mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) survival rates was investigated. Annual survival-rate estimates for mallards generally were higher during years of high May pond numbers and low mallards-per-pond ratios than during years of low pond numbers and high ratios. This tendency was most pronounced among males. These results suggest that mallard survival probabilities may be affected by breeding-ground habitat conditions.
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Beginning in 1977the FWS provided southern Atlantic Flyway states the opportunity to liberalize wood duck harvest regulations. Harvest subsequently increased throughout the flyway but appeared to be more a function of population growth than changes in regulations. In the South, harvest rate increased only slightly for young males and no decline in average survival was detected. We found no evidence of increased harvest pressure on nontarget northern populations. We concluded that liberalized regulations provided increased hunting opportunities in southern states without adversely impacting northern populations.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Wildlife Society Bulletin
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We developed an extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to handle a complex mark-recapture problem in which (a) the sex of birds cannot be determined prior to first moult, but can be predicted on the basis of body measurements, and (b) a significant portion of captured birds appear to be transients (i.e. are captured once but leave the area or otherwise become 'untrappable'). We applied this methodology to a data set of 4184 serins (Serinus serinus) trapped in northeastern Spain during 1985-96, in order to investigate age-, sex-, and time-specific variation in survival rates. Using this approach, we were able to successfully incorporate the majority of ringings of serins. Had we eliminated birds not previously captured...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Bird Study
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The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Wildlife Monographs
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We conclude a mark-recapture study in which drag-collected ticks were removed from some park trails weekly from April to July. Weekly survival rates (probability of surviving and remaining on the trails) were significantly lower on trials used heavily by hikers, horses, and pets than on trails used less frequently. Although usage was the only obvious difference among these trails, differences in weekly survival rate estimates may be attributable to differential success in acquiring hosts. The estimated probability of capturing a host-seeking tick located along a trail on a single drag was 0.20 on the drag alone, and 0.25 including the person dragging. When routes parallel to the trails and of equal lengths were...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Environmental Entomology
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We tested the hypotheses that mass at fledging and fledge date within the breeding season affect postfledging survival in European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Nestlings were weighed on day 18 after hatch and tagged with individually identifiable patagial tags. Fledge date was recorded. Marked fledglings were resighted during weekly two-day intensive observation periods for 9 weeks postfledging. Post-fledging survival and sighting probabilities were estimated for each of four groups (early or late fledging by heavy or light fledging mass). Body mass was related to post-fledging survival for birds that fledged early. Results were not clear-cut for relative fledge date, although there was weak evidence that this...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecology
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Using data from 10 preseason and 10 winter major reference areas from 1950-83, the authors tested hypotheses regarding the effects of hunting on the survival and recovery rates of the American black duck (Anas rubripes ). Although estimates of the proportion of total annual mortality due to hunting are low (35% for ad and 45% for young) compared to Blandin's (1982) estimates, mean mortality and kill rates have increased since 1982. When hunting regulations were liberalized, recovery rates increased and survival rates decreased in males whereas only recovery rates increased in females. Changes in hunting regulations appeared to affect survival rates of adult males and young American black ducks.
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General goodness-of-fit tests for the Jolly-Seber model are proposed. These tests are based on conditional arguments using minimal sufficient statistics. The tests are shown to be of simple hypergeometric form so that a series of independent contingency table chi-square tests can be performed. The relationship of these tests to other proposed tests is discussed. This is followed by a simulation study of the power of the tests to detect departures from the assumptions of the Jolly-Seber model. Some meadow vole capture-recapture data are used to illustrate the testing procedure which has been implemented in a computer program available from the authors.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Biometrics
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Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Biometrics
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Many species of seabirds exhibit delayed maturity and do not return to the natal colony to breed for several years after fledging. Capture-recapture studies are frequently conducted at such breeding colonies and often include marking of young birds. However, because of the absence of these birds from the natal colony during the first few years after banding, the data do not fit neatly into existing capture-recapture models. Here we present a method for estimating prebreeding survival rate from capture-recapture studies on species exhibiting such patterns of delayed maturation. We illustrate the method using data from a capture-recapture study of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii ) on Falkner Island, Connecticut. The...