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These data are netcdf files of the projected timing of the onset of thermal stress severe enough (>8 Degree Heating Weeks) to cause coral bleaching 2x per decade and 10x per decade (annual) under emissions scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The projected timing (a year between 2006 and 2100) is the data value. Values are only shown for the ~60,000 four-km pixels where coral reefs are known to occur.
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This data set describes the predicted daily climate (temperature and rainfall) for low, mid, and high-elevations on Mona Loa, Island of Hawaii from 2098-2100. Climate predictions are based on 3 alternative climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, A1B, and RCP 8.5) - see Liao et al. 2015 for more details and climate references. The predicted daily risk of susceptible Hawaiian honeycreepers are based on the daily climate data, mosquito abundance and other factors. Also see Samuel et al. 2011 The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native Hawaiian birds: a modeling approach. Ecological Applications 21:2960-2973 for description of the epidemiological model used for avian malaria risk predictions.
The TopoWx ("Topography Weather") gridded dataset contains historical 30-arcsec resolution (~800-m) interpolations of minimum and maximum topoclimatic air temperature for the conterminous U.S. Using both DEM-based variables and MODIS land skin temperature as predictors of air temperature, interpolation procedures include moving window regression kriging and geographically weighted regression. This temperature set was created independently of the NCCWSC funded project, "Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Downscaled Climate Models to Adaptation for a Key Forest Species", but was in part motivated by the project.
This data release is provided in support of Arismendi, I., Dunham, J.B., Heck, M.P., Schultz, L.D., Hockman-Wert, D.P., 2017, A statistical method to predict flow permanence in dryland streams from time series of stream temperature: Water, v. 9, no. 12, p. 946, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9120946. This code release contains all of the source code from the "Hidden Markov Model" sections of the associated manuscript. The source code was written using the R programming language (www.r-project.org, version 3.3.1). Running the code requires knowlege of the R programming language. The code snippet requires the folder location containing the data, and the site being processed, to be updated. The code requires certain R packages,...
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This data set contains links that are important to each species' habitat network. Those important links are scored based on the percent currently under protection status, projected change in climate suitability by the middle of the 21st century, and projected change in percent urbanized by the middle of the 21st century. Important links were identified from all links in the networks of each species based on their Integral Index of Connectivity (dIIC). Any links with dIIC scores > 0.9 or which connected to nodes with dIIC > 0.9 were retained here as "important" links.
These data represent the extent of urbanization (for the year indicated) predicted by the model SLEUTH, developed by Dr. Keith C. Clarke, at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Department of Geography and modified by David I. Donato of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Eastern Geographic Science Center (EGSC). Further model modification and implementation was performed at the Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center at North Carolina State University
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Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern U.S. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better understand some of the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological effects of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought;...
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Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern U.S. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better understand some of the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological effects of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought;...
1) Raw parcel-level habitat data for the South Carolina Lowcountry surrounding Cape Romain NWR and Francis Marion NF, from current current conditions and for three projected sea-level rise futures based on SLAMM model outputs, NLCD land cover and the projected distribution of sea levels for 2050. 2) a table of parcel identification numbers (without georeference) with parcel size (Ha) and sub-group identity. 3) Optimization-model derived reserve design portfolios that define the Pareto-optimal frontier for each sub-group and for four budget scenarios along axes of reserve design benefits and risk.
This capacity-building activity supported three tribal college and university (TCU) mini-­grants to initiate student phenological and meteorological observation projects in support of climate change research, to document impacts of climate change and development of indigenous geography curriculum. Students made observations of culturally and/or traditionally significant plants to generate data sets for use in climate change impact assessment of these plants and plant communities. The activity contributed to the larger national efforts of the Smithsonian National Museum of the American Indian’s “Indigenous Geography” curricula, by engaging with students at tribal colleges to explore the linkage between the “seasonality”...
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Locating meadow study sitesMeadow centers as recorded in the ‘Copy of sitecords_areaelev from Caruthers thesis.xls’ file delivered by Debinski in November 2012 were matched to polygons as recorded in files ‘teton97map_area.shp’ and ‘gallatin97map_area.shp’ both also delivered by Debinski in November 2012.In cases where the meadow center did not fall within a meadow polygon, if there was a meadow polygon of the same meadow TYPE nearby (judgment was used here), the meadow center was matched with the meadow polygon of same meadow TYPE. In total, 29 of 30 Gallatin meadow sites and 21 of 25 Teton meadow sites were positively located.Identifying meadow pixels for analysisThe native MODIS 250-meter grid was reprojected...
Historical and projected climate data and water balance data under three GCMs (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR) from 1980 to 2099 was used to assess projected climate change impacts in North Central U.S. We obtained required data from MACA data (https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/MACA/). Historical time period ranges from 1980 to 2005, and projected time period ranges from 2071 to 2099. The climate data includes temperature and precipitation whereas water balance data includes Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and Moisture Index (MI) estimated using Penman-Monteith and Thornthwaite methods defining as Penman PET, Penman MI, Thornthwaite PET and Thornthwaite MI. Both types of MI was estimated as a ratio of...
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Locating meadow study sitesMeadow centers as recorded in the ‘Copy of sitecords_areaelev from Caruthers thesis.xls’ file delivered by Debinski in November 2012 were matched to polygons as recorded in files ‘teton97map_area.shp’ and ‘gallatin97map_area.shp’ both also delivered by Debinski in November 2012.In cases where the meadow center did not fall within a meadow polygon, if there was a meadow polygon of the same meadow TYPE nearby (judgment was used here), the meadow center was matched with the meadow polygon of same meadow TYPE. In total, 29 of 30 Gallatin meadow sites and 21 of 25 Teton meadow sites were positively located.Identifying meadow pixels for analysisThe native MODIS 250-meter grid was reprojected...
Historical and projected climate data and water balance data under three GCMs (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR) from 1980 to 2099 was used to assess projected climate change impacts in North Central U.S. We obtained required data from MACA data (https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/MACA/). Historical time period ranges from 1980 to 2005, and projected time period ranges from 2071 to 2099. The climate data includes temperature and precipitation whereas water balance data includes Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and Moisture Index (MI) estimated using Penman-Monteith and Thornthwaite methods defining as Penman PET, Penman MI, Thornthwaite PET and Thornthwaite MI. Both types of MI was estimated as a ratio of...
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This landcover raster was generated through a Random Forest predictive model developed in R using a combination of image-derived and ancillary variables, and field-derived training points grouped into 18 classes. Overall accuracy, generated internally through bootstrapping, was 75.5%. A series of post-modeling steps brought the final number of land cover classes to 28.
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Training points collected in the field between 2012 and 2013 were grouped into 18 classes: Forested Burn (66), Foothill Woodland Steppe Transition (73), Greasewood Flat (73), Greasewood Steppe (239), Greasewood Sage Steppe (277), Great Plains Badlands (166), Great Plains Riparian (255), Low Density Sage Steppe (776), Medium Density Sage Steppe (783), Mixed Grass Prairie (555), Mixed Grass Prairie Burned (278), Ponderosa Pine Woodland and Shrubland (512), Riparian Floodplain (223), Semi-Desert Grassland (103), Sparsely Vegetated Mixed Shrub (252), Silver Sage Flat (70) , Silver Sage Steppe (64), and Water (246). When insufficient field data were available for a class, we augmented it through photointerpretation of...
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Within large-river ecosystems, floodplains serve a variety of important ecological functions. A recent survey of 80 managers of floodplain conservation lands along the Upper and Middle Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers in the central United States found that the most critical information needed to improve floodplain management centered on metrics for characterizing depth, extent, frequency, duration, and timing of inundation. These metrics can be delivered to managers efficiently through cloud-based interactive maps. To calculate these metrics, we interpolated an existing one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model for the Lower Missouri River, which simulated water surface elevations at cross sections spaced (<1...
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These datasets contain time series of anomalies, relative to 1950-1999 period, in the annual and seasonal soil moisture (%) and runoff (%) in the Pinyon-Juniper ecosystem of Southwest Colorado for the three future climate scenarios considered in the Social Ecological and Climate Resiliency (SECR) project.


map background search result map search result map Hydrological Analysis of Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Montane Meadow Condition using MODIS data New soil data collection: subplot-level shear strength New porewater data collection: subplot-level physicochemical Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge Spot Landcover Classification in Relation to Greater Sage Grouse Training Points Predicted climate and avian malaria risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers on the Island of Hawaii from 2098-2100 Water Balance and Habitat Suitability Data for Pinus Albicaulis in Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem An analysis of montane meadow drying in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem using remotely sensed NDVI from the MODIS period of record (lsp metrics) Important links for Black bear, Rafinesque's big-eared bat, and timber rattlesnake Climate Change Scenario Inundation Metrics along the Upper and Middle Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers Time Series of the Anomalies in Soil Moisture and Runoff Between 1950-2099 for the Pinyon-Juniper Ecosystem of Southwest Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Hydrological Analysis of Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Montane Meadow Condition using MODIS data An analysis of montane meadow drying in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem using remotely sensed NDVI from the MODIS period of record (lsp metrics) Time Series of the Anomalies in Soil Moisture and Runoff Between 1950-2099 for the Pinyon-Juniper Ecosystem of Southwest Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Predicted climate and avian malaria risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers on the Island of Hawaii from 2098-2100 Training Points Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge Spot Landcover Classification in Relation to Greater Sage Grouse Climate Change Scenario Inundation Metrics along the Upper and Middle Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers Water Balance and Habitat Suitability Data for Pinus Albicaulis in Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem New soil data collection: subplot-level shear strength New porewater data collection: subplot-level physicochemical Important links for Black bear, Rafinesque's big-eared bat, and timber rattlesnake