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Abstract (from http://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/early/2015/10/09/SP408.11.abstract): We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecy.1853/full): Predicting species responses to perturbations is a fundamental challenge in ecology. Decision makers must often identify management perturbations that are the most likely to deliver a desirable management outcome despite incomplete information on the pattern and strength of food web links. Motivated by a current fishery decline in inland lakes of the Midwestern United States, we evaluate consistency of the responses of a target species (walleye (Sander vitreus)) to press perturbations. We represented food web uncertainty with 196 plausible topological models and applied four perturbations to each one. Frequently the direction of the focal...
We classified walleye ( Sander vitreus) recruitment with 81% accuracy (recruitment success and failure predicted correctly in 84% and 78% of lake-years, respectively) using a random forest model. Models were constructed using 2779 surveys collected from 541 Wisconsin lakes between 1989 and 2013 and predictor variables related to lake morphometry, thermal habitat, land use, and fishing pressure. We selected predictors to minimize collinearity while maximizing classification accuracy and data availability. The final model classified recruitment success based on lake surface area, water temperature degree-days, shoreline development factor, and conductivity. On average, recruitment was most likely in lakes larger than...
Our knowledge of avian behaviors during the non-breeding period still lags behind that of the breeding season, but the last decade has witnessed a proliferation in research that has yielded significant progress in understanding migration patterns of North American birds. And, although the great majority of migration research has historically been conducted in the eastern half of the continent, there has been much recent progress on aspects of avian migration in the West. In particular, expanded use of techniques such as radar, plasma metabolites, mist-netting, count surveys, stable isotopes, genetic data, and animal tracking, coupled with an increase in multi-investigator collaborations, have all contributed to...
Habitat loss and alteration from land use change, species invasion, and more recently, climate change have reduced biodiversity and ecosystem function worldwide. Habitat decisions have important implications to individual fitness as well as population dynamics and community structure. Resource limitation, predation, competition, and unfavorable abiotic conditions all have the potential to influence survival and future reproductive potential. Understanding how changes to ecosystem structure and function impact species and populations of conservation concern is essential for conservation delivery to be effective. Similar to many migratory species, shorebird populations are declining worldwide and declines may be related...
Great Lakes fishery managers and stakeholders have little information regarding how climate change could affect the management of recreationally and commercially important fisheries, which have been valued at more than $7 billion USD annually. Our research focused on how climate change could influence fish habitat (including water temperature, ice cover, and water levels), phytoplankton production that supports fish biomass, and ultimately the growth and consumption of many important recreational and commercial fish species. This final report was produced for the NCCWSC-funded project Forecasting Climate Change Induced Effects on Recreational and Commercial Fish Populations in the Great Lakes.
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X15005518): Although localized effects of individual dams on stream fish assemblages have been relatively well-studied, less is known about the effects of multiple dams within a stream network on fishes and the patterns that emerge when the combined effects of individual and multiple dams are viewed across entire river basins, ecoregions, and states. This study evaluated multiple stream network fragmentation metrics representing localized (e.g., distance-to-dams) and cumulative (e.g., total upstream reservoir storage) dam influences on streams in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, developing an approach for identifying suitable fish indicators...
Abstract (from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02755947.2016.1146179): Over the last decade, the abundance of Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoideshas increased in many northern Wisconsin lakes, causing concern among anglers and biologists regarding the potential for Largemouth Bass to negatively affect populations of Walleye Sander vitreus through predation or competition for prey. Our objectives were to determine whether (1) diet overlap and predation occurred between adult Walleyes and Largemouth Bass in four northern Wisconsin lakes and (2) the use of DNA barcoding to reduce unidentifiable fish in diet samples affected conclusions regarding diet overlap. A single occurrence of Walleye predation was...
We modeled the current and future breeding ranges of seven bird and five reptile species in the Southwestern United States with sets of landscape, biotic (plant), and climatic global circulation model (GCM) variables. For modeling purposes, we used PRISM data to characterize the climate of the Western United States between 1980 and 2009 (baseline for birds) and between 1940 and 2009 (baseline for reptiles). In contrast, we used a pre-selected set of GCMs that are known to be good predictors of southwestern climate (five individual and one ensemble GCM), for the A1B emission scenario, to characterize future climatic conditions in three time periods (2010–39; 2040–69; and, 2070–99). Our modeling approach relied on...
Abstract (from http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/282/1799/20142454): Hybridization between native and non-native species has serious biological consequences, but our understanding of how dispersal and selection interact to influence invasive hybridization is limited. Here, we document the spread of genetic introgression between a native ( Oncorhynchus clarkii) and invasive ( Oncorhynchus mykiss) trout, and identify the mechanisms influencing genetic admixture. In two populations inhabiting contrasting environments, non-native admixture increased rapidly from 1984 to 2007 and was driven by surprisingly consistent processes. Individual admixture was related to two phenotypic traits associated with fitness:...
Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0148795): Arid climates have unpredictable precipitation patterns, and wildlife managers often provide supplemental water to help desert ungulates endure the hottest, driest periods. When surface water is unavailable, the only source of water for ungulates comes from the forage they consume, and they must make resourceful foraging decisions to meet their requirements. We compared two desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni) populations in Arizona, USA: a treatment population with supplemental water removed during treatment, and a control population. We examined whether sheep altered their seasonal diets without supplemental water....
Abstract (from http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES15-00266.1): Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period)...
Abstract (from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00028487.2014.963256#.VRQIaY7F8qY): The Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis is an important species of conservation concern in the eastern USA. We developed a model to predict Brook Trout population status within individual stream reaches throughout the species’ native range in the eastern USA. We utilized hierarchical logistic regression with Bayesian estimation to predict Brook Trout occurrence probability, and we allowed slopes and intercepts to vary among ecological drainage units (EDUs). Model performance was similar for 7,327 training samples and 1,832 validation samples based on the area under the receiver operating curve (∼0.78) and Cohen's kappa statistic...
Climate change is expected to result in widespread changes in species distributions (e.g., shifting, shrinking, expanding species ranges; e.g., Parmesan and Yohe 2003), especially for freshwater fish species (Heino et al. 2009). Although anglers and other resource users could be greatly affected by changes in species distributions, predicted changes are rarely reported in ways that can be easily understood by the general public. In contrast, climate science that more directly affects human welfare or livelihoods is often more readily communicated to the general public because it is of greater concern or closely related to everyday life. Read More at http://news.fisheries.org/translating-climate-change-effects-into-everyday-language-an-example-of-more-driving-and-less-angling/.
Abstract (from NRC Research Press): Walleye (Sander vitreus) populations are declining in Wisconsin and neighboring regions, motivating broader interest in walleye biology amidst ecological change. In fishes, growth integrates variation in ecological drivers and provides a signal of changing ecological conditions. We used a 23-year data set of length-at-age from 353 walleye populations across Wisconsin to test whether walleye growth rates changed over time and what ecological factors best predicted these changes. Using hierarchical models, we tested whether spatiotemporal variation in walleye growth was related to adult walleye density (density-dependent effects), water temperature, and largemouth bass (Micropterus...
Abstract (from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03632415.2016.1160894): To identify past successes and future opportunities for improved fisheries management in Wisconsin, we synthesized size-structure information on 19 gamefish species from 1944 to 2012, incorporating data on more than 2 million measured individuals. Since the 1940s, mean and mean maximum sizes of five “gamefish” species (Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens, Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, Smallmouth Bass M. dolomieu, Northern Pike Esox lucius, and Sauger Sander canadensis) have stayed fairly stable, and one (Muskellunge E. masquinongy) initially dropped and then rebounded—most likely as a product of increased catch-and-release...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13681/full): Hybridization between invasive and native species, a significant threat to worldwide biodiversity, is predicted to increase due to climate-induced expansions of invasive species. Long-term research and monitoring are crucial for understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes that modulate the effects of invasive species. Using a large, multidecade genetics dataset (N = 582 sites, 12,878 individuals) with high-resolution climate predictions and extensive stocking records, we evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of hybridization between native cutthroat trout and invasive rainbow trout, the world's most widely introduced invasive fish,...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-009-9644-9): Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in...
Summary (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fwb.12807/abstract) Conservation of freshwater unionid mussels presents unique challenges due to their distinctive life cycle, cryptic occurrence and imperilled status. Relevant ecological information is urgently needed to guide their management and conservation. We adopted a modelling approach, which is a novel application to freshwater mussels to enhance inference on rare species, by borrowing data among species in a hierarchical framework to conduct the most comprehensive occurrence analysis for freshwater mussels to date. We incorporated imperfect detection to more accurately examine effects of biotic and abiotic factors at multiple scales on the occurrence...
Largemouth Bass (LMB) Micropterus salmoides is one of the most popular sport fish in the United States and is intensively managed across much of its range. Beginning in 1989, Wisconsin implemented more restrictive harvest regulations for LMB, including greater minimum length limits, reduced bag limits, and a catch-and-release-only season during the spawning period across much of northern Wisconsin. We tested for trends in LMB relative abundance, growth, and angler catch and harvest in relation to LMB management policies from 1990 to 2011. We also tested for potential sport fish community responses to changes in LMB abundances using Walleye (WAE) Sander vitreus as an example. Angler catch rates and electrofishing...