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Abstract (from esa): For decades, botanists have recognized that rare plants are clustered into ecological “islands”: small and isolated habitat patches produced by landscape features such as sinkholes and bedrock outcrops. Insular ecosystems often provide unusually stressful microhabitats for plant growth (due, for example, to their characteristically thin soils, high temperatures, extreme pH, or limited nutrients) to which rare species are specially adapted. Climate‐driven changes to these stressors may undermine the competitive advantage of stress‐adapted species, allowing them to be displaced by competitors, or may overwhelm their coping strategies altogether. Special features of insular ecosystems – such as...
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Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum...
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Nutritional ecology forms the interface between environmental variability and large herbivore behaviour, life history characteristics, and population dynamics. Forage conditions in arid and semi-arid regions are driven by unpredictable spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall. Diet selection by herbivores should be directed towards overcoming the most pressing nutritional limitation (i.e. energy, protein [nitrogen, N], moisture) within the constraints imposed by temporal and spatial variability in forage conditions. We investigated the influence of precipitation-induced shifts in forage nutritional quality and subsequent large herbivore responses across widely varying precipitation conditions in an arid environment....
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11160-017-9477-y): To date, there are few comprehensive assessments of how climate change affects inland finfish, fisheries, and aquaculture at a global scale, but one is necessary to identify research needs and commonalities across regions and to help guide decision making and funding priorities. Broadly, the consequences of climate change on inland fishes will impact global food security, the livelihoods of people who depend on inland capture and recreational fisheries. However, understanding how climate change will affect inland fishes and fisheries has lagged behind marine assessments. Building from a North American inland fisheries assessment, we convened...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12568/abstract): Anthropogenic climate change has created myriad stressors that threaten to cause local extinctions if wild populations fail to adapt to novel conditions. We studied individual and population-level fitness costs of a climate change-induced stressor: camouflage mismatch in seasonally colour molting species confronting decreasing snow cover duration. Based on field measurements of radiocollared snowshoe hares, we found strong selection on coat colour molt phenology, such that animals mismatched with the colour of their background experienced weekly survival decreases up to 7%. In the absence of adaptive response, we show that these mortality...
Abstract: Greenhouse gas-induced climate change will have notable effects on the Great Lakes region, in the atmosphere, land surfaces, and lakes themselves. Simulations of these effects were carried out using the Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Research Model (CHARM), driven by output from the Canadian General Circulation Model version 3 (CRCM3) for past and future time periods. This results in increased downward longwave radiation and near-surface air temperature. The air temperature increases during summer have strong spatial minima directly over the lakes that are limited to the lowest model layer and seem to be associated with frequent fog depicted by CHARM. Precipitation is also generally increased, with the...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10980-015-0205-5): Context The Florida Everglades has diminished in size and its existing wetland hydrology has been altered. The endangered snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis) has nearly abandoned the Everglades, and its prey, the apple snail (Pomacea paludosa), has declined. Objective We developed a population model (EverSnail) to understand apple snail response to inter- and intra-annual fluctuations in water depths over the Everglades landscape. EverSnail was developed as a tool to understand how apple snails respond to different hydrologic scenarios. Methods EverSnail is an age- and size-structured, spatially-explicit landscape model of P. paludosa...
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The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e., green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals, and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate, and duration of green-up along migratory routes, was the primary factor influencing surfing. Our results indicate that...
Abstract (from Ecological Society of America): Species that are primarily seral may form stable (self‐sustaining) communities under certain disturbance regimes or environmental conditions, yet such populations may also be particularly vulnerable to ecological change. Aspen (Populus spp.) are generally considered seral throughout the Northern Hemisphere, including P. tremuloides, the most widely distributed tree species in North America. Recent declines in aspen populations have occurred, especially along drought‐sensitive margins of its range and where fire exclusion and herbivory have promoted community transition. However, aspen also forms stable stands, and examination of the mechanisms that influence persistence...
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The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e., green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals, and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate, and duration of green-up along migratory routes, was the primary factor influencing surfing. Our results indicate that...
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The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e., green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals, and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate, and duration of green-up along migratory routes, was the primary factor influencing surfing. Our results indicate that...
This update was provided to FWS on March 21, 2013. The assessment incorporates an evaluation of climate and non-climate threats, and potential interactions among them to evaluate potential bull trout persistence. In summary, it includes the following steps: 1) Map suitable habitat "patches" across the species' range in the conterminous United States; 2) Attribute patches with information on local and climate related threats; 3) Map and attribute migratory habitats for the species and their relationship to "patches;" and 4) model persistence of bull trout in relation to local and climate related threats in patches and migratory habitats. For more information, contact Jason Dunham, U.S. Geological Survey, Forest...
Abstract (from Ecosphere): Conservation planning for wildlife species requires mapping and assessment of habitat suitability across broad areas, often relying on a diverse suite, or stack, of geospatial data presenting multidimensional controls on a species. Stacks of univariate, independently developed vegetation layers may not represent relationships between each variable that can be characterized by multivariate modeling techniques, leading to inaccurate inferences on the distribution of suitable habitat. In this paper, we examine the role of variable combining in mapping multiple dimensions of greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, GRSG) habitat as a basis for GRSG conservation in the great basin ecoregion...
Abstract (from IOPScience): Ecological droughts are deficits in soil-water availability that induce threshold-like ecosystem responses, such as causing altered or degraded plant-community conditions, which can be exceedingly difficult to reverse. However, 'ecological drought' can be difficult to define, let alone to quantify, especially at spatial and temporal scales relevant to land managers. This is despite a growing need to integrate drought-related factors into management decisions as climate changes result in precipitation instability in many semi-arid ecosystems. We asked whether success in restoration seedings of the foundational species big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) was related to estimated water...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901114000641): As climate change research burgeons at a remarkable pace, it is intersecting with research regarding indigenous and rural people in fascinating ways. Yet, there remains a significant gap in integrated quantitative and qualitative methods for studying rural climate change perception and policy support, especially with regard to Native Americans. The objectives of this paper are to utilize our multi-method approach of integrating surveys, interviews, video, literature and fieldwork in innovative ways to: (1) address the aforementioned gap in rural studies, while advancing knowledge regarding effective methodologies for investigation...
Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the northeast and Midwest. Because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple sugaring as climate changes throughout the region. At the same time the demand for this natural sweetener and the production of maple syrup are increasing rapidly. Our research addressed the impact of climate on the quality of maple sap used to make maple syrup. We examined yields coupled with the sugar and biochemical composition...
Abstract (from USGS): Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. The objective of...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534715000075): Extrinsic factors influencing evolutionary processes are often categorically lumped into interactions that are environmentally (e.g., climate, landscape) or community-driven, with little consideration of the overlap or influence of one on the other. However, genomic variation is strongly influenced by complex and dynamic interactions between environmental and community effects. Failure to consider both effects on evolutionary dynamics simultaneously can lead to incomplete, spurious, or erroneous conclusions about the mechanisms driving genomic variation. We highlight the need for a landscape community genomics (LCG) framework to...
This project seeks to assess the vulnerability of forests in the southwestern U.S. to climate change and wildfire, in order to understand how these ecosystems might become altered as a result. Researchers will examine (a) how climate change will impact wildfires in the region, to better understand fire risk; (b) identify where and when vegetation will be most sensitive to changing climate and fire conditions; and (c) determine the ability of vegetation to adapt to changing conditions, given appropriate management. Researchers will then work closely with public land managers to develop strategic management plans that enable forests to adapt to the changes that are occurring.


map background search result map search result map Thermal metrics: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes The greenscape shapes surfing of resource waves in a large migratory herbivore Extreme precipitation variability, forage quality and large herbivore diet selection in arid environments Individual Variability in Surfing Migration Dates Extreme precipitation variability, forage quality and large herbivore diet selection in arid environments The greenscape shapes surfing of resource waves in a large migratory herbivore Individual Variability in Surfing Migration Dates Thermal metrics: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes