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Exposure (vulnerability) index for the future time period (2041-2060) representing projected climate conditions from the Meterological Research Institute's Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (MRI-CGCM3) and the rcp45 emissions scenario. The exposure model uses LANDFIRE vegetation data and Worldclim climate data .The raster values represent exposure scores for the corresponding vegetation type. The modeled vegetation types can be spatially associated with the exposure values by overlaying them with the "landfire_veg_sw_300m.tif" raster.Exposure values represent where the location falls in climate space relative to its recent historical distribution:5 (core 5% of historical climate space); 10 (5 -...
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This layer depicts projected abundance of native and non-native plant species in the main Hawaiian Islands with high levels of uncertainty removed in post-processing. To estimate native and invasive species abundance in baseline climate conditions, a map was generated that considered abundance as percent cover and used high coefficient of variation values as a mask. The primary sources for post-processing the uncertainty masks are the Hawaiian Islands plant species abundance modeled means and standard deviation values (Wong et al., in preparation). These maps cover the entire landscape (including urban and agricultural areas), and therefore they can be applied in a variety of ways. Maps can be utilized to evaluate...
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The Monarch’s View of a City project will lay the groundwork for design principles to guide the development, testing and deployment of future urban conservation for the Monarch butterfly across the Eastern half of the country. This strategy will need to reflect an integrated and interdisciplinary approach, one that includes ecological and social dimensions specific to an urban landscape. Pilot design projects at various scales in at least two cities will advance the state of science for developing landscape conservation design (LCD) guidelines for monarch butterfly conservation in urban areas as described below. While the ETPBR LCC, working through US Fish & Wildlife Service staff, will select cities and manage...
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This dataset provides bi-monthly data on seed biomass collected in shallow water habitats across the fresh to saline gradient at coastal sites in Barataria Bay, Louisiana. This project was co-funded by the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and the Gulf Coast Prairie and the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. An alternate reference to this product can be found here.
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This dataset contains the result of the bioclimatic-envelope modeling of nine bird species -- Northern/Masked Bobwhite Quail (Colinus virginianus), Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Pinyon Jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus), Juniper Titmouse (Baeolophus ridgwayi), Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida), Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii), Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), Montezuma Quail (Cyrtonyx montezumae), and White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucurus) -- in the South Central US using the downscaled data provided by WorldClim. We used five species distribution models (SDM) including Generalized Linear Model, Random Forest, Boosted Regression Tree, Maxent, and Multivariate Adaptive...
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The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e., green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals, and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate, and duration of green-up along migratory routes, was the primary factor influencing surfing. Our results indicate that...
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The Global River Points dataset is a high-resolution vector file geodatabase of 73 rivers world-wide. Each river is represented by a series of points spaced 150 meters apart and each point has attached environmental attributes extracted from multiple data sets. The attributes include physical information (slope, elevation, temperature, precipitation, river width and discharge) and landscape variables (human influence, fishing pressure, and organic load). The dataset also incorporates the river classification data from the Global River Reach Classifications GloRiC Version 1.0 dataset.
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Dataset includes weekly individual snowshoe hare observations on coat color molt phenology and anti-predatory behaviors collected in field study sites near Seeley Lake MT, Gardiner, MT and Lincoln, MT,USA. Data were analyzed and results published at: 1. Zimova M., Mills L.S., Lukacs P.M., Mitchell M.S. 2014 Snowshoe hares display limited phenotypic plasticity to mismatch in seasonal camouflage. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281(1782). (doi:10.1098/rspb.2014.0029).
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Establishing connections among natural landscapes is the most frequently recommended strategy for adapting management of natural resources in response to climate change. The U.S. Northern Rockies still support a full suite of native wildlife, and survival of these populations depends on connected landscapes. Connected landscapes support current migration and dispersal as well as future shifts in species ranges that will be necessary for species to adapt to our changing climate. Working in partnership with state and federal resource managers and private land trusts, we sought to: 1) understand how future climate change may alter habitat composition of landscapes expected to serve as important connections for wildlife,...
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This dataset represents the area in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem prioritized for different whitebark pine(Pinus albicaulis) management activities, summarized by land classes. This data was developed for use in a landscape simulation modeling study aimed at evaluating how well alternative management strategies maintain whitebark pine populations under historical climate and future climate conditions. For the study, we developed three spatial management alternatives for whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem representing no active management, current management, and climate-informed management. These management alternatives were implemented in the simulaton model FireBGCv2 under historical climate...
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Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance...
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This dataset includes evaluation data ("test" data) and performance metrics for water temperature predictions from multiple modeling frameworks. Process-Based (PB) models were configured and calibrated with training data to reduce root-mean squared error. Uncalibrated models used default configurations (PB0; see Winslow et al. 2016 for details) and no parameters were adjusted according to model fit with observations. Deep Learning (DL) models were Long Short-Term Memory artificial recurrent neural network models which used training data to adjust model structure and weights for temperature predictions (Jia et al. 2019). Process-Guided Deep Learning (PGDL) models were DL models with an added physical constraint for...
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A final summary figure summarizing the results of a study that compares two different downscaling techniques in terms of how they project future change in various aspects of the maple syrup tapping season. Spatially, the larger project uses raster data covering the full range of sugar maple across the northeastern US, but the summary figure represents point data (as an example) at a sugarbush farm in central Wisconsin. The results show that dynamically downscaled models fail to adequately forecast absolute values of future conditions but do capture potential changes in year-to-year variability — a metric of particular concern to producers as it challenges planning. Statistically downscaled models, while they do...
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This dataset includes model inputs that describe local weather conditions for Lake Mendota, WI. Weather data comes from two sources: locally measured (2009-2017) and gridded estimates (all other time periods). There are two comma-delimited files, one for weather data (one row per model timestep) and one for ice-flags, which are used by the process-guided deep learning model to determine whether to apply the energy conservation constraint (the constraint is not applied when the lake is presumed to be ice-covered). The ice-cover flag is a modeled output and therefore not a true measurement (see "Predictions" and "pb0" model type for the source of this prediction). This dataset is part of a larger data release of lake...
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High-resolution river centerlines vector shapefiles has 50 large rivers across the world. This high-resolution layer was generated will enable researchers to identify accurate river length, from headwaters to delta. The polylines could be used in coordination with any satellite-derived environmental or landscape variables for ecological research.
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Grassland birds are among the most imperiled bird guilds in North America. Scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) are a semi-arid grassland bird whose populations have declined over the past half century. We monitored scaled quail in New Mexico to study the effects of habitat, temperature and precipitation on survival of scaled quail adults, nests, and broods.
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Grassland birds are among the most imperiled bird guilds in North America. Scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) are a semi-arid grassland bird whose populations have declined over the past half century. We monitored scaled quail in New Mexico to study the effects of habitat, temperature and precipitation on survival of scaled quail adults, nests, and broods.


map background search result map search result map Weekly Snowshoe Hare Anti-Predatory Behaviors Data, Montana Study Sites 2009-2012 laysan_island_50cm_contours 2015 Hawaiian Islands Plant Species Abundance Models GENMOM model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change Projected future bioclimate-envelope suitability for bird species in South Central USA Potential climate change impacts on shrub connectivity in the U.S. Northern Rockies Seed biomass from shallow coastal water areas along a salinity gradient in Barataria Bay, Louisiana (2015) Daily Surfing A Monarch’s View of Urban Landscapes: Pilot City Design Report Global High-Resolution River Centerlines West Portrillo Mountains Scaled Quail Brood Survival 2014-2015 West Portrillo Mountains Scaled Quail Adult Survival 2014-2015 Data supporting the study of Impacts of Downscaled Climate Model Selection on Projections of Maple Syrup Tapping Season High-Resolution Georeferenced Major Rivers Point Data, Spaced in 150m intervals Process-guided deep learning water temperature predictions: 6c All lakes historical evaluation data Process-guided deep learning water temperature predictions: 3a Lake Mendota inputs laysan_island_50cm_contours Process-guided deep learning water temperature predictions: 3a Lake Mendota inputs West Portrillo Mountains Scaled Quail Adult Survival 2014-2015 West Portrillo Mountains Scaled Quail Brood Survival 2014-2015 Daily Surfing Weekly Snowshoe Hare Anti-Predatory Behaviors Data, Montana Study Sites 2009-2012 2015 Hawaiian Islands Plant Species Abundance Models Projected future bioclimate-envelope suitability for bird species in South Central USA GENMOM model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change Seed biomass from shallow coastal water areas along a salinity gradient in Barataria Bay, Louisiana (2015) Process-guided deep learning water temperature predictions: 6c All lakes historical evaluation data Potential climate change impacts on shrub connectivity in the U.S. Northern Rockies A Monarch’s View of Urban Landscapes: Pilot City Design Report Data supporting the study of Impacts of Downscaled Climate Model Selection on Projections of Maple Syrup Tapping Season High-Resolution Georeferenced Major Rivers Point Data, Spaced in 150m intervals Global High-Resolution River Centerlines