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Palau’s Jellyfish Lake, locally known as Ongeim’l Tketau (OTM), is an iconic tourism site and an important area of biodiversity. This landlocked marine lake is part of the Rock Island Southern Lagoon UNESCO World Heritage Site, representing an expression of Palauan national pride, and has brought in millions of dollars to the local Koror State economy. OTM is also home to the unique Golden jellyfish, Mastigias papua etpisoni, a subspecies found nowhere else in the world. Populations of the Golden jellyfish within OTM have fluctuated extensively over past decades, with numbers sometimes hovering around a high of 30 million to periods of total population collapse that can last for multiple years. Scientific monitoring...
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Drought is a common result of climate variability in the south-central United States. With increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation patterns expected in the future, drought will continue to stress water quantity and quality in this region. University of Oklahoma researchers have demonstrated that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a measure of long-term drought conditions, can help predict drought patterns at multi-county scales in south-central Oklahoma. The model forecasts future PDSI using larger-scale climate drivers, commonly referred to as “teleconnections,” such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These teleconnections...
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A central goal of the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) is to bring together the latest data, tools, and knowledge on the impacts of climate change to the hands of the region’s natural and cultural resource managers. To meet this goal, the NC CSC implemented three sub-projects which (1) organized a workshop aimed at developing an information technology framework for data integration related to climate change impacts on ecosystems and landscape conservation; (2) evaluated data and information exchange protocols and identified analytical needs; and (3) coordinated an assessment of the impacts of climate change across the Great Plains region, which contributed to the identification of potential adaptation...
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Throughout western North America, warming associated with climate change is leading to both earlier spring peak streamflows and earlier seed dispersal, potentially reducing seedling establishment and in turn reducing the quality of riparian (near-river) forests, which provide critical habitat for diverse birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, and insects, and food and shade for fish and other aquatic animals. This project aimed to predict these effects of climate change on cottonwood and willow tree regeneration in western forests by linking models of seed dispersal timing, streamflow hydrology, and seedling establishment, focusing on the upper South Platte River Basin as a study area. Results are expected to help...
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Dry stream sections are characteristic of most prairie streams. Native fish are highly adapted to variable environments, using refuge habitats (e.g., remaining wet stream fragments) to recolonize areas after seasonal drying. However, dams and other barriers can prevent recolonization of seasonally-dry stream sections habitats known to be critical spawning and rearing areas for many species. This phenomenon will likely become more common as climate change causes increasingly severe droughts, and larger sections of streams become seasonally dry. This could lead to local loss of native prairie fishes, an already at-risk group. Fisheries managers in Wyoming and Montana have limited data on climate impacts to prairie...
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Southwestern Colorado is already experiencing the effects of climate change in the form of larger and more severe wildfires, prolonged drought, and earlier snowmelt. Climate scientists expect the region to experience more summer heat waves, longer-lasting and more frequent droughts, and decreased river flow in the future. These changes will ultimately impact local communities and challenge natural resource managers in allocating water under unpredictable drought conditions, preserving forests in the face of changing fire regimes, and managing threatened species under shifting ecological conditions. In light of the wide-ranging potential impacts of climate change in the region, this project sought to help decision-makers...
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There is a growing movement within natural resource management to view wildlife health as a cumulative outcome of many different factors, rather than simply the absence of disease. This inclusive understanding of health opens the door to management options that are more creative than traditional techniques aimed at preventing or mitigating pathogens. The public health field uses a related concept known as the “health gradient” that suggests that the ease or difficulty with which an individual successfully fends off various health hazards depends on external determinants-of-health, such as income, education, and surrounding community. This perspective facilitates a harm reduction strategy that emphasizes actions...
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The warming climate combined with a century of fuel build up (i.e. burnable plant materials found in the forest) due to fire suppression are driving megafires that threaten life and property and are severely altering ecosystems. Many of these fires are converting large areas of forest to shrub fields or grasslands, termed “ecological transformations.” Although uncharacteristically severe fires are contributing to these changes, lower intensity fire is a key ecological process that sustains native ecosystems, increases ecological resilience, and guides climate change adaptation. Planned fires (e.g., prescribed fire) are the most efficient management activity that can be performed at scales large enough to address...
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Large, hot, fast-moving wildfires are an increasing threat to communities and to the watersheds they rely upon. Forest managers work to reduce the risk from these fires using forest thinning and prescribed burning to reduce the amount of fuel in the forest. However, these activities are expensive, and it can be challenging to identify which acres of forest should be targeted with thinning and burning treatments. The goal of this research is to improve an existing modeling tool that helps forest managers find the ‘right acres’ to target with treatments to help to reduce wildfire risk. Focusing on the Santa Fe Fireshed, researchers will first use different numbers of forest inventory plots to estimate how the forest...
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Changing temperature and precipitation patterns in the South Central U.S are already having an impact on wildlife. Hotter and drier conditions are prompting some species to move in search of cooler conditions, while other species are moving into warmer areas that were once unsuitable for them. These changes in the distribution of wildlife populations present challenges for wildlife managers, hunters, tribal communities, and others who are making decisions about wildlife stewardship. This project examined the effect of shifting climate conditions on 20 species of conservation concern in the South Central United States. These species, which include the black-tailed prairie dog and the lesser prairie-chicken, were...
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To date, hydrological and ecological models have been developed independently from each other, making their application particularly challenging for interdisciplinary studies. The objective of this project was to synthesize and evaluate prevailing hydrological and ecological models in the South-Central U.S., particularly the southern Great Plains region. This analysis aimed to identify the data requirements and suitability of each model to simulate stream flow while addressing associated changes in the ecology of stream systems, and to portray climate variability and uncertainty. The results and deliverables of this project are expected to include a comprehensive, updated, and systematic report on recent developments...
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Climate change in Hawaiʻi is expected to result in increasing temperatures and varying precipitation through the twenty-first century. Already, high elevation areas have experienced rapidly increasing temperatures and there has been an increase in the frequency of drought across the Islands. These climatic changes could have significant impacts on Hawaiʻi’s plants and animals. Changes in temperature and moisture may make current habitat no longer suitable for some species, and could allow invasive species to spread into new areas. Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park is home to 23 species of endangered vascular plants and 15 species of endangered trees. Understanding how climate change may impact the park’s plants...
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Coral reef ecosystems serve as natural coastal defenses, support local island economies, and are important sources of food for coastal communities. However, an increase in coral bleaching events, and the associated declines of coral cover and diversity, are highly likely as sea surface temperatures continue to rise. Multiple coral bleaching events between 2013 and 2017 have already impacted the reefs of Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, resulting in the loss of more than a third of shallow living-coral cover, with some species groups experiencing greater than 90% mortality. This devastating series of bleaching events strengthened existing partnerships between federal and local agencies and...
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Some areas of the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) are experiencing a decline in precipitation and streamflow and an increase in the number of severe droughts. These changes can have wide-reaching implications, affecting the water supply, native vegetation and wildlife, wildfire patterns, and the spread of invasive species. As ecosystems become altered by invasive species and as particularly hotter, more variable climates emerge, it is critical that scientists produce locally relevant, timely, and actionable science products for managers to prepare for and cope with the impacts of drought. Simultaneously, it is important that managers are able to both access this information and shape the types of data products...
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Globally, shorelines provide a vital defense system against extreme weather and erosion events and are a critical public and cultural resource. Within the state of Hawaiʻi, coastal vulnerability and historic change has been well documented and studied on the Islands of Oʻahu, Maui, and Kauaʻi, but this has not been done for the Island of Hawaiʻi, the largest and most diverse island in the Hawaiian archipelago. For example, Hurricane Lane caused major flooding and coastal erosion on Hawaiʻi Island in 2018, but no comprehensive baseline shoreline dataset exists to document and quantify the changes it caused. To help fill this knowledge gap, this study aims to create a shoreline inventory of the entire coastline...
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Coral reefs are critical providers of food, economic opportunity, and cultural value in the Pacific Islands. Coral bleaching events, driven by extreme water temperatures, jeopardize reefs’ ability to continue providing these services. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of marine heat waves leading to bleaching events, reducing the amount of time for full recovery, and increasing the chances of permanent damage to reefs. Reef managers urgently need strategies that will improve reef resilience, increasing the reefs’ ability to withstand harsh conditions or recover quickly after damage. Example strategies include restoring coral in areas with good conditions for coral survival, protecting naturally...
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Healthy forests and woodlands in the western United States provide many important benefits, including providing habitat for wildlife, forage for livestock, and clean water for fish and human use. Yet climate change and other stressors, from wildfires and insect attacks to severe droughts, are causing unprecedented tree die offs across the region, threatening many of these ecosystem services. Following these mortality episodes, a key question becomes: how will these ecosystems recover? In some cases, forests eventually return to their pre-disturbance states, growing back the same species and creating the same kind of ecological communities as before. However, there are increasing observations of ecosystems that...
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The Gulf of Alaska is one of the most productive marine ecosystems on Earth, supporting salmon fisheries that alone provide large economic benefits to Southeast Alaska. The region also has a vibrant and growing tourism industry. Glaciers are central to many of the area’s natural processes and economic activities, but the rates of glacier loss in Alaska are among the highest on Earth. Glacier loss threatens to significantly change the amount and timing of nutrients delivered by streams to near-shore habitats. Changes in glacier runoff into the ocean may also impact coastal currents that contribute to vibrant nearshore marine ecosystems. Improving our understanding of how ecosystems depend on glaciers and what glacier...
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Changing climate in the “Ridge-to-Reef" (R2R) and “Icefield-to-Ocean" (I2O) ecosystems of Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska is expected to influence freshwater resources, extreme precipitation events, intensity of storms, and drought. Changes in these regions will not be uniform, rather they will depend on elevation and watershed location due to their steep-gradient terrains. A better understanding of expected future climate conditions in these regions is essential for natural resource managers to make informed climate adaptation decisions amid a changing environment. The Pacific Islands and Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Centers (PI and AK CASCs) are uniquely positioned to address these issues as they have previously...
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The Nome Creek Experimental Watershed (NCEW) has been the site of multiple studies focused on understanding hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecosystem changes related to permafrost thaw and fire in the boreal forest. The boreal forest is the Earth’s largest terrestrial biome, and thus plays a major role in biogeochemical cycling, creation of habitat for wildlife, as well as wilderness and resources for humans. This project specifically investigates tracers experiments designed to provide comparative hydrological and soils investigations in a small, fire impacted, boreal forest watershed with discontinuous permafrost. The dataset includes field collected data on soil moisture, meteorology, stream flow, aquatic biogeochemistry,...
map background search result map search result map Projecting Future Climate Effects on Cottonwood and Willow Seed Dispersal and Tree Regeneration in Western Riparian Forests Analyzing and Communicating the Ability of Data and Models to Simulate Streamflow and Answer Resource Management Questions Evaluating Data Needs and Capacity in the North Central Region and Coordinating an Assessment of Regional Climate Impacts Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 1 Modeling the Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Crucial Wildlife Habitat Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park Ice2O: A Continued Assessment of Icefield-to-Ocean Change in the Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Nome Creek Boreal, Fire and Permafrost Hydrology investigations Climate Change, Variability, and Drought in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands – Working with Managers to Mitigate the Impacts of Drought and Wildfire Science to Help Move From Mortality to Recovery in Western Forests and Woodlands Assessing the Impact of Changing Water Resources on Migratory Bird Health and Management in the Central Flyway Developing and Testing a Drought Early Warning Product in the South-Central United States Using Cutting-Edge Technology to Assess Coral Reef Bleaching Events and Recovery Rates in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Generating a Shoreline Inventory for Hawai‘i Island to Increase Resilience in the Face of Rising Sea Levels Identifying Locations for Coral Reef Climate Resilience Translating Existing Model Results to Aid in Resource Management Planning for Future Precipitation Extremes in Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes Next Generation Fire Modeling to Inform the Management of Climate and Fire Driven Ecological Transformations in the Rio Grande Basin Informing Forest Treatment Placement to Mitigate High-Severity Wildfire Risk Forecasting the Future of Ongeim’l Tketau (Jellyfish Lake), Palau in a Changing Climate Forecasting the Future of Ongeim’l Tketau (Jellyfish Lake), Palau in a Changing Climate Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park Projecting Future Climate Effects on Cottonwood and Willow Seed Dispersal and Tree Regeneration in Western Riparian Forests Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 1 Using Cutting-Edge Technology to Assess Coral Reef Bleaching Events and Recovery Rates in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Next Generation Fire Modeling to Inform the Management of Climate and Fire Driven Ecological Transformations in the Rio Grande Basin Ice2O: A Continued Assessment of Icefield-to-Ocean Change in the Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes Generating a Shoreline Inventory for Hawai‘i Island to Increase Resilience in the Face of Rising Sea Levels Analyzing and Communicating the Ability of Data and Models to Simulate Streamflow and Answer Resource Management Questions Modeling the Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Crucial Wildlife Habitat Assessing the Impact of Changing Water Resources on Migratory Bird Health and Management in the Central Flyway Developing and Testing a Drought Early Warning Product in the South-Central United States Climate Change, Variability, and Drought in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands – Working with Managers to Mitigate the Impacts of Drought and Wildfire Evaluating Data Needs and Capacity in the North Central Region and Coordinating an Assessment of Regional Climate Impacts Nome Creek Boreal, Fire and Permafrost Hydrology investigations Translating Existing Model Results to Aid in Resource Management Planning for Future Precipitation Extremes in Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska Identifying Locations for Coral Reef Climate Resilience