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In the Southeastern U.S. rapid urbanization is a major challenge to developing long-term conservation strategies. The SAMBI DSL project used predicted urban growth models described herein to inform future landscape conditions that were also based climate change impacts and vegetative community succession. These future landscape conditions were then applied as a context for land use and management decisions in conservation planning. SLEUTH, named for the model input datasets (Slope, Land use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation and Hillshade) is the evolutionary product of the Clarke Urban Growth Model that uses cellular automata, terrain mapping and land cover change modeling to address urban growth (Jantz et al, 2009;...
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This dataset includes stream temperatures from two data loggers installed at one site in the Little Blitzen River of SE Oregon as part of a redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdnerii) study. The site was used as an undisturbed reference in comparison with similar temperature monitoring sites in the Willow-Whitehorse watershed that experienced a 2012 fire that burned nearly the entire watershed.
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The files in the sub-folder "1. Juvenile coho salmon abundance and survival" consist of fish survey data and the associated analysis. The file "02_Fish survey data_all events_2019-11-27.csv" contains the actual fish survey data that was collected in Mason Creek, tributary of East Fork Lewis River, SW Washington, during summer of 2017. The protocol for the fish surveys are outline in the file "Fish Rescue Field Protocol_2017_FINAL VERSION_2017-06-01.pdf". The abundance and survival analysis can be found in the file "Juvenile MR abundance_Coho_02Contraints_2019-12-02.R". This file should be loaded through the .Rproj file "Fish Abundance.Rproj". There are many files needed to run the analysis that consist of summaries...
To improve understanding of streamflow permanence in the Pacific Northwest, we have developed a method for predicting the annual probability of year-round streamflow at 30-meter intervals. The approach involves collecting and processing nearly 24,000 streamflow observations into “wet” or “dry” values, and synchronizing them with 291 predictor datasets that represent physical (one-time values) and climatic (monthly or annual values) conditions associated with the upstream area for each 30-meter point along streams in the Pacific Northwest. Both of these datasets are among the first of their kind and shed light on the scientific opportunities that ‘Big Data’ techniques allow for. The predictive models developed from...
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Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing natural resource management. The disruptions it is causing require that we change the way we consider conservation and resource management in order to ensure the future of habitats, species, and human communities. Practitioners often struggle with how to identify and prioritize specific climate adaptation actions (CAAs). Management actions may have a higher probability of being successful if they are informed by available scientific knowledge and findings; a systematic review process provides a mechanism to scientifically assess management questions. By evaluating specific actions on scientific knowledge and findings, we may be able to increase management...
Abstract (from http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF16165): Interannual variability in burn severity is assessed across forested ecoregions of the western United States to understand how it is influenced by variations in area burned and climate during 1984–2014. Strong correlations (|r| > 0.6) between annual area burned and climate metrics were found across many of the studied regions. The burn severity of individual fires and fire seasons was weakly, but significantly (P < 0.05), correlated with burned area across many regions. Interannual variability in fuel dryness evaluated with fuel aridity metrics demonstrated weak-to-moderate (|r| >0.4) relationships with regional burn severity, congruent with but weaker than...
Streams are classified as perennial (flowing uninterrupted, year-round) or intermittent (flowing part of the year) or ephemeral (flowing only during rainfall events). The classifications of “streamflow permanence” were primarily established in the middle 20th century and are often outdated and inaccurate today if they were not adjusted for changes in land use, wildfires, or climate. Understanding where streams are perennial is important for a variety of reasons. For example, perennial streams receive special regulatory protections under a variety of statutes, and provide important habitat for fish, wildlife, and other species. To predict the likelihood that streams are perennial, we compiled nearly 25,000 observations...
Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the...
Introduction (From Parks Stewardship Forum) Managers and scientists widely acknowledge climate change as one of the greatest threats to protected areas in the US and worldwide (Gross et al. 2016). The US National Park Service (NPS) began addressing climate change as early as the 1990s, and in 2010 NPS Director Jonathan Jarvis stated that “climate change is fundamentally the greatest threat to the integrity of our national parks that we have ever experienced” (NPS 2010). Today, parks throughout the NPS system experience impacts of human-caused climate change (e.g., Monahan and Fisichelli 2014; Gonzalez 2018) that threaten iconic park resources. Climate-related impacts include: melting glaciers (e.g., Glacier National...
Climate change may facilitate the expansion of non-native invasive species (NIS) in aquatic and terrestrial systems. However, empirical evidence remains scarce and poorly synthesized at scales necessary for effective management. We conducted a literature synthesis to assess the state of research on the observed and predicted effects of climate change on a suite of 398 aquatic and terrestrial NIS now present in or a major threat to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA and British Columbia. Surprisingly, very few studies (n = 15) have investigated the observed effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance, spread, or impact of the focal NIS, with only five studies focusing...
This dataset is a continuous parameter grid (CPG) of normal (average) annual maximum air temperature data for the years 1981 through 2010 in the Pacific Northwest. Source temperature data was produced by the PRISM Climate Group at Oregon State University.
These datasets are continuous parameter grids (CPG) of topography data in the Pacific Northwest. Datasets include stream slope, basin slope, elevation, contributing area, and topographic wetness index. Source data come from the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Dataset.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. These values and variables, known as Continuous Parameter Grids, or CPGs, were used as the predictor variables in the model. The CPGs referenced...
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. These values and variables, known as Continuous Parameter Grids, or CPGs, were used as the predictor variables in the model. The CPGs referenced...
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This folder contains data in three parts. The juvenile coho salmon abundance and survival data consists of fish survey data and the associated analysis, including documentation of the analysis code, methods, and protocols used. Habitat survey data consists of both reach-level (~100 meter sections) and continuous (watershed scale) surveys. The summaries item and its contents include summaries produced from fish and habitat surveys conducted in Mason Creek, tributary of the East Fork Lewis River, SW Washington, during summer of 2017.
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Communities, resource managers, and decision makers in Arctic Alaska are in need of scientific information to base important decisions related to anticipating and adapting to changes in temperature and precipitation. Since its inception in 2011, the Alaska Climate Science Center (AK CSC) and its partners have produced a variety of scientific products and datasets aimed at supporting this need and increasing climate change resilience in the Arctic. However, much of the information related to these activities is dispersed across many technical publications, and is often not readily accessible to those outside the research community. In an effort to make this science more available and accessible, the AK CSC is working...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided...
Abstract (from http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.3955/046.089.0305): It is hypothesized that climate impacts forest mosaics through dynamic ecological processes such as wildfires. However, climate-fire research has primarily focused on understanding drivers of fire frequency and area burned, largely due to scale mismatches and limited data availability. Recent datasets, however, allow for the investigation of climate influences on ecological patch metrics across broad regions independent of area burned and at finer scale. One area of particular interest is the distribution of fire refugia within wildfire perimeters. Although much recent research emphasis has been placed on high-severity patches within wildfires,...
map background search result map search result map The Available Science Assessment Process (ASAP): Evaluating the Science behind Climate Adaptation Actions A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Arctic Alaska Stream Temperature Data in the Little Blitzen watershed of SE Oregon, 2009-15 Juvenile coho salmon stream survey data and associated analysis to estimate abundance and survival in Mason Creek, tributary of East Fork Lewis River, SW Washington, during summer of 2017 Observations and summaries of juvenile coho salmon abundance and survival, stream surveys, and habitat surveys, East Fork Lewis River, Southwest Washington, 2017 Stream Temperature Data in the Little Blitzen watershed of SE Oregon, 2009-15 Juvenile coho salmon stream survey data and associated analysis to estimate abundance and survival in Mason Creek, tributary of East Fork Lewis River, SW Washington, during summer of 2017 Observations and summaries of juvenile coho salmon abundance and survival, stream surveys, and habitat surveys, East Fork Lewis River, Southwest Washington, 2017 The Available Science Assessment Process (ASAP): Evaluating the Science behind Climate Adaptation Actions A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Arctic Alaska