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The objective of this project is to map the supply of ecosystem services (where natural ecosystems have the capacity to provide a certain product or service that could be of use to people), use of those services (where people or other entities that use the product or service exist), and the condition of ecosystems providing these services over time. The resulting datasets were used to generate metrics for pilot ecosystem accounts for the southeast – part of natural capital accounts that assess ecosystems’ contributions to the economy in order to help governments better understand their reliance on natural systems and manage natural resources to ensure their benefits are sustained into the future. These data were...
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Pollinator restoration requires information about what species to plant and when to plant them to ensure food sources are available throughout the periods when pollinators are active. Changes in climate, including earlier spring warming and warmer fall temperatures, may cause flowering to become out of sync with pollinator activity. When restoring land to support pollinators, managers are challenged to select a mix of species that support pollinators of concern throughout their periods of activity. Existing planting tools have several disadvantages such as, their usability is location specific, they are virtually non-existent for the South Central region, and they do not often account for future changes in plant...
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Forests are of tremendous ecological and economic importance. They provide natural places for recreation, clean drinking water, and important habitats for fish and wildlife. However, the warmer temperatures and harsher droughts in the west that are related to climate change are causing die-offs of many trees. Outbreaks of insects, like the mountain pine beetle, that kill trees are also more likely in warmer, drier conditions. To maintain healthy and functioning forest ecosystems, one action forest managers can take is to make management decisions that will help forests adapt to future climate change. However, adaptation is a process based on genetic change and few tools are currently available for managers to use...
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Climate change is expected to worsen the harmful effects of invasive species on native wildlife. This presents a growing conservation challenge for invasive species managers in the southeastern United States where thousands of invasive species exist. While many of these invasive species currently have relatively small ranges in the southeastern U.S., climate change may allow them to expand into new regions. To effectively plan and respond to the redistribution of invasive species, it is crucial to coordinate existing information and identify future information needs across regional boundaries. The ultimate goal of this project is to improve invasive species management in the face of climate change by establishing...
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The USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC), as part of the work of the Interagency Land Management Adaptation Group (ILMAG), initiated a project in 2013 to develop plans for a searchable, public registry on climate change vulnerability assessments. Member agencies from the USGCRP Adaptation Science Work Group, the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (AFWA), and several NGO’s also contributed. Vulnerability assessments are important for identifying resources that are most likely to be affected by climate change and providing insights on why certain resources are vulnerable. Consequently, they provide valuable information for informing climate change adaptation planning. CRAVe allows...
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In this proposal we investigate how tree selection at the local scale affects biodiversity and ecosystem services (Obj. 1). We then look regionally to determine the extent to which trees in cities can be used to predict heat-related threats to rural forests (Obj. 2). We will leverage ongoing investigations of heat-related stress and pest outbreaks in urban and rural forests to develop management recommendations for both systems. These ongoing projects provide a knowledge-base, infrastructure (e.g. study sites), equipment (e.g. Li-Cor Photosynthesis System), and outreach opportunities that will extend the impact of this project (see Synergistic and Future Funding section below). We will also convene a working group...
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Mountain meadows in the western United States provide key habitats for many plant and wildlife species, many of which rely exclusively on these areas. Mountain meadows are also treasured by the public and provide beautiful areas to view wildflowers and wildlife on public lands such as national parks. However, mountain ecosystems are expected to be disproportionately affected by climate change. There is a limited understanding of how mountain meadows are changing, how temperature and precipitation may be driving those changes, and how this will impact sensitive species that inhabit these landscapes. Natural resource managers have an immediate need to understand these relationships to conserve or restore habitats...
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Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. In this study, we compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability....
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The Rio Grande River is a critical source of freshwater for 13 million people in Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, and Mexico. More than half of the Rio Grande’s streamflow originates as snowmelt in Colorado’s mountains, meaning that changes in the amount of snowmelt can impact the water supply for communities along the entire river. Snowmelt runoff is therefore an important component of water supply outlooks for the region, which are used by a variety of stakeholders to anticipate water availability in the springtime. It is critical that these water supply outlooks be as accurate as possible. Errors can cost states millions of dollars due to mis-allocation of water and lost agricultural productivity. There is a perception...
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Freshwater is a critical driver for island ecosystems. In Hawaiʻi, though rainfall intensity has increased, total rainfall has been on the decline for the last two decades and, as a result, streamflow has also been reduced. The changes in dynamic patterns of streamflow could result in impacts to river, estuarine, and coastal habitats. In turn, these changes also affect the nine native Hawaiian aquatic species found in these habitats at different stages of their amphidromous life cycle (in which they migrate from fresh to salt water or vice versa). To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, an ongoing project has been examining statewide long-term...
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This data set includes a dropped-edge analysis of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on land cover data from 2006 and graph theory to evaluate Landscape Resistance to Dispersal (LRD). LRD represents the degree to which habitat availability limits species movement. LRD decreases as habitat availability increases and increases as habitat availability decreases. This data set includes a range of LRD thresholds to represent species with different dispersal abilities and responses to landscape structure. A threshold indicates the highest LRD that still allows dispersal by a particular group of species. LRD thresholds are included in the data set, with low values representing connectivity...
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Freshwater mussels are an important component of freshwater ecosystems. They can filter a large amount of water, affecting both water clarity and water chemistry. Their shells provide physical habitat for other organisms, they re-direct necessary nutrients to the bottom of the water column, and their excreted material can enhance the growth of algae and macroinvertebrates. However, dramatic declines of freshwater mussels have occurred due to habitat loss, destruction and modification, pollution, and invasive species. One mussel species in Texas (Texas Hornshell) has been listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and several other species are candidates for listing. Changes in precipitation patterns...
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Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and spawning, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes and migratory...
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As our world changes and communities are faced with uncertain future climate conditions, decision making and resource planning efforts can often no longer rely on historic scientific data alone. Scientific projections of what might be expected in the future are increasingly needed across the country and around the world. Scientists and researchers can develop these projections by using computer models to simulate complex elements of our climate and their interactions with ecosystems, wildlife, and biodiversity. While an extensive array of general circulation models (GCMs, climate models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean) exist, there is currently a lack of global biodiversity models. This project...
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Climate change threatens many wildlife species across the Pacific Northwest. As the climate continues to change, wildlife managers are faced with the ever-increasing challenge of allocating scarce resources to conserve at-risk species, and require more information to prioritize sites for conservation. However, climate change will affect species differently in different places. In fact, some places may serve as refuges for wildlife—places where animals can remain or to which they can easily move to escape the worst impacts of climate change. Currently, different datasets exist for identifying these resilient landscapes, known as climate refugia, but they are often not readily useable by wildlife managers. To address...
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We used land cover projections for 2011 and 2050 of two scenarios derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Scenario A1B emphasizes economic growth with a global orientation and scenario B2 focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view. Our study area included counties within the southern Great Plains ecoregion in Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico. We calculated changes in landscape connectivity (dECA) between 2011 and 2050 for different species groups and landscape scenarios. We also calculated changes in habitat suitability (dA). We assessed the degree to which changes in landscape connectivity were influenced by changes in grassland...
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Berry-producing plants, a key resource in Alaska Native communities, provide primary subsistence and have been integral to maintaining cultural cohesion, sense of place, and physical ties to the surrounding landscape. Despite the importance of berry-producing plants, relatively little is known about their vulnerability to changes in climate and environmental conditions. The dynamics of insect populations are strongly related to climate; however, very little is known about the insect pollinators of berry plants in Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems. This interaction between plants and pollinators is critical to plant communities and for providing fruit resources to Indigenous communities. Numerous plant species...
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Electronic Supplementary Material ESM Table S1. Calcification rates for the reef coral Siderastrea siderea and crustose coralline algae (CCA) communities at four sites in the Florida Keys, U.S.A, from May 2010 until May 2012. Sample size ( N), mean, and standard error (SEM) are reported. Site Time interval Coral calcification (mg cm-2 d-1) CCA calcification (mg cm-2 d-1) N Mean SEM N Mean SEM Pulaski Shoal N 24° 41.613’ W 82° 46.368’ Summer 2010 10 4.12 0.33 10 0.132 6.8E-03 Winter 2011 10 2.75 0.28 10 0.080 5.0E-03 Summer 2011 9 4.50 0.43 9 0.076 4.5E-03 Winter 2012 9 2.85 0.48 9 0.082 5.8E-03 Sombrero Key N 24° 37.612’ W 81° 06.536’ Summer 2010 10 2.67 0.22 9 0.229 0.018 Winter 2011...
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The Hawaiian Islands have an extremely diverse number of plants and animals found nowhere else on Earth. Changes brought about by the arrival of humans and the introduction of non-native predators, weeds, and diseases has led to the extinction of hundreds of Hawaiian species – far more than any other U.S. state. To help the State of Hawaiʻi prevent additional species from becoming extinct and to restore at-risk species to secure population sizes, the State, along with federal, private, and scientific partners, is currently developing and implementing a comprehensive conservation plan to protect and manage over 300 declining and endangered native plants and animals on the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, and Lānaʻi. This...
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Global concern of an “insect apocalypse” is fueling demand for large-scale, long-term studies of insect population dynamics. Butterflies associated with open habitat, like prairies and grasslands, have long been identified as species of concern in the Midwest. The iconic monarch butterfly, which serves as a flagship for both migration and insect conservation, is one such species of conservation concern and is currently under consideration for federal listing under the Endangered Species Act. Recent analyses suggest that common, widespread species may also be declining. Yet robust evidence for general declines is patchy and the causes are difficult to discern. Understanding the relative importance of climate, land...


map background search result map search result map Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Development of the Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability (CRAVe): A Searchable, Public Online Tool for Understanding Species and Habitat Vulnerability Calcification rates for the reef coral/electronic supplementary table Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Developing Tools for Improved Water Supply Forecasting in the Rio Grande Headwaters Workshops and Collaborations to Improve Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species in the southern Great Plains based on a scenario of future land-use change that focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view Dropped-edge analysis of terrestrial connectivity of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on the National Land Cover Database from 2006 Climate Refugia and Resilience Atlas: Identifying Priority Areas for Conserving Species of Concern in a Changing Climate Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse” Connecting Ecosystems from Mountains to the Sea in a Changing Climate Time to Restore: Using a Community Based Approach to Identify Key Plant Species for Pollinator Restoration Field Surveys for Vanishing Species: Closing Data Gaps to Understand Climate Change Impacts on Hawaiian Land Snails and Preserve Biodiversity From Water to Wildlife: Linking Water Timing and Availability to Meadows and Wildlife in a Changing Climate Enhancing Climate Adaptation for Native Communities in Western Alaska: Linking Pollinator Diversity and Abundance to Berry Production in a Rapidly Changing Environment Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Southeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network (SE RISCC) Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Developing Tools for Improved Water Supply Forecasting in the Rio Grande Headwaters Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Climate Refugia and Resilience Atlas: Identifying Priority Areas for Conserving Species of Concern in a Changing Climate From Water to Wildlife: Linking Water Timing and Availability to Meadows and Wildlife in a Changing Climate Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species in the southern Great Plains based on a scenario of future land-use change that focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view Dropped-edge analysis of terrestrial connectivity of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on the National Land Cover Database from 2006 Field Surveys for Vanishing Species: Closing Data Gaps to Understand Climate Change Impacts on Hawaiian Land Snails and Preserve Biodiversity Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse” Time to Restore: Using a Community Based Approach to Identify Key Plant Species for Pollinator Restoration Southeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network (SE RISCC) Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Connecting Ecosystems from Mountains to the Sea in a Changing Climate Development of the Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability (CRAVe): A Searchable, Public Online Tool for Understanding Species and Habitat Vulnerability Enhancing Climate Adaptation for Native Communities in Western Alaska: Linking Pollinator Diversity and Abundance to Berry Production in a Rapidly Changing Environment Workshops and Collaborations to Improve Biodiversity and Climate Modeling