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Abstract (from ESA): Estimating population size and resource selection functions (RSFs) are common approaches in applied ecology for addressing wildlife conservation and management objectives. Traditionally such approaches have been undertaken separately with different sources of data. Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) provides a hierarchical framework for jointly estimating density and multi‐scale resource selection, and data integration techniques provide opportunities for improving inferences from SCR models. Despite the added benefits, there have been few applications of SCR‐RSF integration, potentially due to complexities of specifying and fitting such models. Here, we extend a previous integrated SCR‐RSF model...
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The objective of this project is to map the supply of ecosystem services (where natural ecosystems have the capacity to provide a certain product or service that could be of use to people), use of those services (where people or other entities that use the product or service exist), and the condition of ecosystems providing these services over time. The resulting datasets were used to generate metrics for pilot ecosystem accounts for the southeast – part of natural capital accounts that assess ecosystems’ contributions to the economy in order to help governments better understand their reliance on natural systems and manage natural resources to ensure their benefits are sustained into the future. These data were...
Climate change is affecting species and ecosystems across the Northeast and Midwest U.S. Natural resource managers looking to maintain ecological function and species persistence have requested information to improve resource management in the face of climate change. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and its partners, this project used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. An interdisciplinary team worked to understand the mechanisms that are driving...
Although scientists have identified many ways to reduce the negative effects of climate change on wildlife, this information is not readily available to natural resource managers. For successful wildlife adaptation to climate change, natural resource managers should have current, peerreviewed information to guide their decisions. We conducted a review of over 1300 publications for recommendations to manage wildlife in the face of climate change. We then summarized the findings as the wildlife adaptation menu, a tool to inform planning and decision-making in an accessible format.
Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. In this study, we compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability....
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Climate change is expected to worsen the harmful effects of invasive species on native wildlife. This presents a growing conservation challenge for invasive species managers in the southeastern United States where thousands of invasive species exist. While many of these invasive species currently have relatively small ranges in the southeastern U.S., climate change may allow them to expand into new regions. To effectively plan and respond to the redistribution of invasive species, it is crucial to coordinate existing information and identify future information needs across regional boundaries. The ultimate goal of this project is to improve invasive species management in the face of climate change by establishing...
Abstract (from ZSL): The use of remote cameras is widespread in wildlife ecology, yet few examples exist of their utility for collecting environmental data. We used a novel camera trap method to evaluate the accuracy of gridded snow data in a mountainous region of the northeastern US. We were specifically interested in assessing (1) how snow depth observations from remote cameras compare with gridded climate data, (2) the sources of error associated with the gridded data and (3) the influence of spatial sampling on bias. We compared daily observations recorded by remote cameras with Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS ) gridded predictions using data from three winters (2014–2016). Snow depth observations were...
Abstract (from Nature Climate Change): In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects1,2,3,4,5. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change6. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modelling approach and current-generation general circulation model output under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5....
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Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. In this study, we compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability....
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This dataset contains the result of the bioclimatic-envelope modeling of the three amphibian species -- the Sacramento Mountain Salamander (Aneides hardii), the Jemez Mountains Salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus), and the Chiricahua Leopard Frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis) -- in the South Central US using the downscaled data provided by WorldClim. We used five species distribution models (SDM) including Generalized Linear Model, Random Forest, Boosted Regression Tree, Maxent, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and ensembles to develop the present day distributions of the species based on climate-driven models alone. We then projected future distributions of the species using data from four climate...
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This dataset contains the result of the bioclimatic-envelope modeling of the two reptile species -- Rio Grande Cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi) and Gray-Checkered Whiptail (Aspidoscelis dixoni) -- in the South Central US using the downscaled data provided by WorldClim. We used five species distribution models (SDM) including Generalized Linear Model, Random Forest, Boosted Regression Tree, Maxent, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and ensembles to develop the present day distributions of the species based on climate-driven models alone. We then projected future distributions of the species using data from four climate models: Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), Hadley Centre Global Environment...
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Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and spawning, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes and migratory...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1608-2): Many recent changes in tree species distributions, mortality, and growth rates have been linked to changes in climate. Managing forests in the face of climate change will require a basic understanding of which tree species will be most vulnerable to climate change and in what ways they will be vulnerable. We assessed the relative vulnerability to climate change of 11 tree species in western North America using a multivariate approach to quantify elements of sensitivity to climate change, exposure to climate change, and the capacity to adapt to climate change. Our assessment was based on a combination of expert knowledge, published studies,...
Fish and wildlife are at the heart of Washington State’s rich ecological, economic, and cultural heritage. The incredible diversity of species and the habitats that sustain them helps to define Washington’s distinct character and in part reflects the long standing conservation ethic of its citizens – one that has endured the challenges posed by a growing human population, increasing demands for land, water, and other natural resources, and now the very real threat of climate change. A growing body of scientific evidence indicates that climate change is already having a significant impact on natural systems across the region, and further changes are likely in the coming decades (CIG 2009; Mote and Salathé 2010)....
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A large portion of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean; however, our coasts are also home to many fish, wildlife, and plant species that are important for recreation, tourism, local economies, biodiversity, and healthy coastal ecosystems. Coastal habitats also provide protective ecosystem services to human communities, which are increasingly at risk to storms and sea level rise under future climate change. Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. In a collaborative project between the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative...
Abstract (from Springer Link): Species-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning. We tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird...
Abstract (from Springer Link): Conservation planning is increasingly using “coarse filters” based on the idea of conserving “nature’s stage”. One such approach is based on ecosystems and the concept of ecological integrity, although myriad ways exist to measure ecological integrity. To describe our ecosystem-based index of ecological integrity (IEI) and its derivative index of ecological impact (ecoImpact), and illustrate their applications for conservation assessment and planning in the northeastern United States. We characterized the biophysical setting of the landscape at the 30 m cell resolution using a parsimonious suite of settings variables. Based on these settings variables and mapped ecosystems, we computed...
We modeled the current and future breeding ranges of seven bird and five reptile species in the Southwestern United States with sets of landscape, biotic (plant), and climatic global circulation model (GCM) variables. For modeling purposes, we used PRISM data to characterize the climate of the Western United States between 1980 and 2009 (baseline for birds) and between 1940 and 2009 (baseline for reptiles). In contrast, we used a pre-selected set of GCMs that are known to be good predictors of southwestern climate (five individual and one ensemble GCM), for the A1B emission scenario, to characterize future climatic conditions in three time periods (2010–39; 2040–69; and, 2070–99). Our modeling approach relied on...
Montane regions support distinct animal and plant communities that are widely viewed as communities of high conservation concern due to their significant contribution to regional biodiversity. These communities are also thought to be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenically caused stressors such as climate change, which is generally expected to cause upward shifts and potential range restrictions in montane plant and animal distributions. In the northern Appalachian Mountains of North America, not only is it becoming warmer at mid-elevations but the ecotone between the northern hardwood and the montane coniferous forests is also shifting. Therefore, species that are limited by climate or habitat along the elevational...
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This dataset contains the result of the bioclimatic-envelope modeling of nine bird species -- Northern/Masked Bobwhite Quail (Colinus virginianus), Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Pinyon Jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus), Juniper Titmouse (Baeolophus ridgwayi), Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida), Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii), Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), Montezuma Quail (Cyrtonyx montezumae), and White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucurus) -- in the South Central US using the downscaled data provided by WorldClim. We used five species distribution models (SDM) including Generalized Linear Model, Random Forest, Boosted Regression Tree, Maxent, and Multivariate Adaptive...
map background search result map search result map Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Projected future bioclimate-envelope suitability for amphibian species in South Central USA Projected future bioclimate-envelope suitability for bird species in South Central USA Projected future bioclimate-envelope suitability for reptile species in South Central USA Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Southeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network (SE RISCC) Projected future bioclimate-envelope suitability for amphibian species in South Central USA Projected future bioclimate-envelope suitability for bird species in South Central USA Projected future bioclimate-envelope suitability for reptile species in South Central USA Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Southeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network (SE RISCC) Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future