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Modeling interactions between human and ecological systems is needed to identify pathways to meet multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Particularly important is the relationship between biodiversity, ecological processes, and ecosystem services. However, current models tend to ignore impacts of biodiversity on ecological processes. Existing models capture impacts of socio-economic activities on biodiversity or ecosystem services, but critically, links between biodiversity and ecosystem services are only weakly incorporated in most projections and hence in policy design. Knowledge of these relationships has improved, but is scattered across the literature, as are models addressing each component....
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The Pacific Ocean is home to a number of low-lying, coastal national parks and wildlife refuges. These public lands are situated on coral reef-lined islands that are susceptible to inundation from sea-level rise and flooding during storms. Because of their low-lying nature and limited availability of space, ecosystems, cultural resources, and infrastructure on these islands are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Sea-level rise will further exacerbate the impact of storms on island parks and refuges by increasing wave-driven coastal flooding, with consequences for ecological and human communities alike. However, most assessments of future conditions at coastal national parks and refuges consider only permanent...
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Grasslands in the northern Great Plains are important ecosystems that support local economies, tribal communities, livestock grazing, diverse plant and animal communities, and large-scale migrations of big game ungulates, grassland birds, and waterfowl. Climate change and variability impact how people and animals live on and interact with grasslands, and can bring more frequent droughts, fires, or new plant species that make managing these landscapes challenging. Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century first requires a synthesis of what is known across all of these scales and a gap analysis to identify key areas of focus for future...
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Coastal marshes are vital habitats that protect and support our coastal communities and economies by providing protection from storm surge, filtering pollutants, and providing recreational opportunities. Rising sea levels threaten marshes and jeopardize the benefits they provide to human communities and ecosystems. To preserve these benefits, coastal resource managers need to understand how marshes will change in the short- and long-term in response to rising sea levels. Scientific models provide resource managers with an effective way to visualize and understand these changes, but the numerous choices of marsh models currently available can be overwhelming to coastal managers. The similarities and differences...
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As the climate continues to change, vulnerable wildlife species will need management strategies to help them adapt to these changes. One specific management strategy is based on the idea that in certain locations, climate conditions will remain suitable for species to continue to inhabit into the future. These locations are known as climate “refugia”. In contrast, other locations may become too hot, dry, or wet for species to continue to inhabit. When wildlife managers are considering protecting land for vulnerable species, it can be helpful for them to understand where these climate refugia are located, so that they can be prioritized for conservation. However, most tools used by resource managers to manage these...
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The NE CASC consortium convenes three workshops that explore high-priority adaptation research topics emerging from our stakeholder networks and current DOI priorities. Workshops provide a platform to foster a collaborative community of scientists and managers, invite sharing and discussion of partner needs, and cross-disciplinary development and application of NE CASC-supported research, information, and data products. Year 1: Biological Thresholds in the Context of Climate Change (proceedings) Year 2: Future of Aquatic Flows (proceedings) Year 3: Climate-Adaptive Population Supplementation (proceedings)
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Tidal marshes along the Atlantic coastline provide critical habitat for a wide variety of wildlife, help protect coastal ecosystems by filtering excess nutrients and pollutants, and serve as a buffer against coastal erosion and flooding. However, these important habitats and the species that rely on them are threatened by rising sea levels. Resource managers from the National Park Service Northeast Region, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Northeast Region, and the state of Massachusetts have expressed a need for a scientific analysis of the vulnerability of these salt marshes to sea level rise. The supply of sediment to marshes is a critical factor controlling marsh survival and adaptability to rising sea levels....
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Under the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) must evaluate the status of at-risk plants and animals in the U.S. A Species Status Assessment (SSA) is a scientific assessment prepared for each at-risk species to help inform a range of management decisions under the Endangered Species Act. SSA’s are currently needed for more than 350 species, 250 of which are in the Southeast region alone. These species are threatened by several stressors including urbanization, loss of habitat, changes in streamflow and water quality, climate variability, and climate change. As part of the SSA process, teams must identify and assess risks to species or their habitat from changing climate, hydrology,...
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The Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States contain the greatest biodiversity of native freshwater mussels in the world, but they are highly imperiled due to habitat alteration and destruction, pollution and poor water quality, and the introduction of aquatic invasive species. Now they are at even greater risk from the stresses associated with climate change-induced sea level rise and its associated changes in salinity, water temperature, and stream flow. This project investigates the potential vulnerability and adaptation of a native freshwater mussel, the Tidewater Mucket, in coastal river systems and offer solutions for its conservation. Scientists have recently discovered a population of...
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Species across North America are being impacted by changing climate conditions. Plants and animals can respond to these changes in a variety of ways, including by shifting their geographic distributions. Determining whether or not observed biological changes, such as range shifts, are indeed the result of climate change is a key challenge facing natural resource managers and requires clarifying which areas have experienced detectable and significant changes in climate variables (such as monthly mean temperature or extreme precipitation). The objective of this study is to identify areas across North America that have (or have not) experienced detectable changes in ecologically-relevant climate variables. The overall...
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Overview This project examines the ecological impacts of several introduced and expanding forest insects and diseases on forest habitats across the northeastern US and upper Lake States region. To address these novel threats, this work applies large-scale, co-developed experimental studies documenting impacts of ash mortality from emerald ash borer on lowland black ash communities in the Lake States and northern hardwood forests in New England; regional assessments of the impacts of the climate change-mediated expansion of southern pine beetle into northeastern pine barren communities; and ecological characterizations of areas experiencing suppression efforts to reduce the spread of the introduced Asian long-horned...
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Moose are an important game species in Montana, Idaho and Wyoming but hunter opportunities have been reduced in many areas over the last two decades as populations have declined at this southern limit of the species’ geographic range. In the Jackson, Wyoming area moose populations have declined by an estimated 80% since the early 1990s. Rising temperatures, pathogens, and parasites represent some of the hypothesized mechanisms behind the declines. Specifically, concerns have increased about the abundance of winter ticks (Dermacentor albipictus), a widespread parasite associated with moose that increases in abundance with shorter winters and longer growing seasons. The winter tick has been associated with drastic...
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The impacts of climate change are widespread and accelerating. As natural resource managers are tasked with maintaining and protecting species and ecosystems, options for minimizing the impacts of climate change are needed. One option for climate adaptation focuses on resistance, which seeks to preserve, as much as possible, the historical structure, composition, and function of an ecosystem in the face of changing climate conditions. One of the primary resistance strategies is to identify and conserve what are known as climate change refugia. These refugia represent areas that remain relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time and therefore enable the persistence of valued physical, ecological,...
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Hundreds of millions of dollars of public funding are invested annually in projects that aim to deliver research that can improve people’s lives and safeguard the environment. To invest that money wisely, we need to know how to design projects so that they will successfully address the information needs of natural resource managers. By using a process of systematic evaluation to assess the effectiveness of past projects, we can start to identify shared characteristics that make funded research more likely to provide accessible and usable information to resource managers both within and beyond the Department of the Interior. Applied science projects pose a particular evaluation challenge. These projects have two...
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Overview This project is using a combination of long-term data records and recently established large-scale adaptive management studies in managed forests across the Lake States, New England, Intermountain West, and Black Hills to identify forest management strategies and forest conditions that confer the greatest levels of resistance and resilience to past and emerging stressors and their relevance in addressing future global change. This work represents a broad partnership between scientists from the USFS Northern Research Station, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, USGS, University of MN, University of Maine, and Dartmouth College in an effort to capitalize on over 50 years of data collection on USFS...
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Overview A changing regional climate in the northeastern US has significant implications for the fundamental bioenergetics of fish species, with implications for their population resilience and their ability to provide critical ecosystem services, with particularly important implications for tribal communities. For example, warming soil and water temperatures may increase the accumulation of toxic methylmercury (MeHg) in aquatic food webs and in freshwater and migratory fishes. High levels of MeHg currently generate most of the fish consumption advisories across the northeast US, and climate-driven increases carry substantial economic and health risks. However, climate impacts Hg dynamics via multiple pathways...
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Overview Invasive species and climate change represent two of the five major global change threats to ecosystems. An emerging initiative of the Northeast Climate Science Center aims to develop management-relevant research to improve invasive species management in the face of climate change. Through working groups, information sharing and targeted research, this project addresses the information needs of invasive species managers in the context of climate change. RISCC Management is collaboratively led by the Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center, the New York Invasive Species Research Institute, and the University of Massachusetts to address the question “How can we manage for upcoming biological...
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The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources need to develop a plan of action to help the recovery of two endangered species in the genus Eleutherodactylus (commonly known as “coqui”), while also reducing the risk that 14 other coqui species would be added to the Endangered Species list. Prior work by these researchers has identified factors influencing life history for three representative species (E. wightmanae, E. britonni, and E. antillensis) including where species occur, their abundance, and key drivers of reproduction, all of which are driven by climate and land use change. For this next research stage, this project will: (1) characterize the ability...
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The Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) develops scientific information and tools to help managers address climate variability and climate change related to impacts on land, water, fish and wildlife, nearshore, coastal and cultural heritage resources. The NE CASC is hosted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMASS) with consortium partners College of Menominee Nation, Columbia University, Cornell University, Michigan State University, University of Missouri, University of Vermont, University of Wisconsin, Woodwell Climate Research Center and the United States Forest Service Northern Research Station. The NE CASC consortium addresses regional science priorities of the Department of the...
    map background search result map search result map Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains Understanding Changing Climate Variables to Clarify Species’ Exposure and Responses to Changing Environments across North America Developing A National Framework for Incorporating Climate Change Refugia into Conservation and Adaptation Planning Analysis and Visualization of Climate Information to Support USFWS Species Status Assessments Best Practices for Project Design: Effectively Addressing Natural Resource Management Needs Strategic Habitat Conservation and Adaptive Strategies for the Conservation of Coqui Frogs in Puerto Rico Improving the Usability of Modeling Tools for Predicting Coastal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise Impacts of Sea Level Rise on At-risk Native Freshwater Mussels in Atlantic Coastal Rivers Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. Understanding Sediment Availability to Reduce Tidal Marsh Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise in the Northeast The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands The Missing Link: Incorporating the Role of Biological Diversity into Projections of Ecosystem Services Moose and Winter Ticks in Western Wyoming Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Massachusetts Amherst (2019-2024) Capacity Workshops Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Effects of Climate, Disturbance, and Management on the Growth and Dynamics of Temperate and Sub-Boreal Forest Ecosystems within the Lake States and New England Drivers of Growth, Migration, and Bioaccumulation in Target Fish Species: Implications for a Changing Regional Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Invasive Forest Insects and Diseases in the Northeast Understanding Sediment Availability to Reduce Tidal Marsh Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise in the Northeast Moose and Winter Ticks in Western Wyoming Impacts of Sea Level Rise on At-risk Native Freshwater Mussels in Atlantic Coastal Rivers Drivers of Growth, Migration, and Bioaccumulation in Target Fish Species: Implications for a Changing Regional Climate Improving the Usability of Modeling Tools for Predicting Coastal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Massachusetts Amherst (2019-2024) Capacity Workshops Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Invasive Forest Insects and Diseases in the Northeast Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Effects of Climate, Disturbance, and Management on the Growth and Dynamics of Temperate and Sub-Boreal Forest Ecosystems within the Lake States and New England Analysis and Visualization of Climate Information to Support USFWS Species Status Assessments Best Practices for Project Design: Effectively Addressing Natural Resource Management Needs The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Understanding Changing Climate Variables to Clarify Species’ Exposure and Responses to Changing Environments across North America Developing A National Framework for Incorporating Climate Change Refugia into Conservation and Adaptation Planning The Missing Link: Incorporating the Role of Biological Diversity into Projections of Ecosystem Services