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Stream fish are in peril from a changing climate, particularly for species with restricted distributions or populations on the southern edge of their range. For these fish, the opportunity to escape warming temperatures is limited by the network of stream channels accessible to them. To deal with temperatures beyond their physical capacity, fishes must move, adapt, or die. However, little is known for many of these species about their preferred temperatures, critical temperature limits, or capacity to adapt to or tolerate increasing temperatures. Researchers will measure the preferred temperatures and tolerance of two stream fish that are vulnerable to climate change: the Ozark Shiner and the Blacknose Shiner. The...
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Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Northwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and ecosystem responses, will change across the landscape. Decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about projected future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An accessible and forward-looking summary of what we know about the “future of fire” is urgently required in the Northwest and across the country to support...
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Pinyon-juniper woodlands are important ecosystems in the western U.S. that provide numerous critical environmental, economic, and cultural benefits. For example, pinyon pines are a significant cultural resource for multiple Native American Tribes and provide necessary habitat for plants and wildlife (including at risk species, such as the pinyon-jay). Despite their importance, stress put on pinyon-juniper woodlands by wildfires and other interacting effects of climate change are causing major population declines of these woodland trees. Such changes to pinyon-juniper woodlands lead to uncertainty for land managers on best practices for protecting these ecosystems from stand replacing fire (where most or all of...
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California is a world biodiversity hotspot, and also home to hundreds of sensitive, threatened, and endangered species. One of the most vulnerable ecosystems in California is the “sky island” montane forests of southern California, forests of conifers and hardwoods located only in high-elevation mountain regions. Montane forests serve many important ecosystem functions, including protecting the upper watersheds of all the major rivers in Southern California. Yet human use, invasive species, droughts, fires, and now climate change are increasingly threatening the sensitive ecosystem. A major obstacle to the sustainability of montane forests in southern California is the absence of a coordinated strategic conservation...
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Floods and droughts are forecasted to occur with greater frequency and to be more extreme because of climate change. These changes will increase stresses on both cities and natural systems. Increased flooding can harm infrastructure designed to support human needs and natural systems that support fish and wildlife. Increased drought can have direct impacts on fish and wildlife by increasing river and lake temperatures and stranding species in water-short systems. This project will develop a decision support system that helps resource managers in New England estimate the recurrence of future extreme floods and droughts while directly incorporating the impacts of future climate change. The decision support system...
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In the last decade, the annual area burned by wildfires in Alaska has doubled relative to any of the previous four decades, and the current frequency of fire is unprecedented over the past 1,200 years. Wildland fires are one of the main contributors to long-term changes in the structure and function of boreal and subarctic ecosystems. Although fire is a necessary component of regulating these ecosystems, it also poses a hazard to humans when uncontrolled. Currently, fire managers use the Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to perform calculations that can assist in field management of fires, but the only version of this tool that is available depends on network access, which poses a significant limitation for...
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Residents living along the coast of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River have experienced two record-setting floods, one in 2017 and another in 2019. These floods caused tremendous property damage and disruptions to the regional economy. The water levels on Lake Ontario are influenced by the operations of the Moses Saunders Dam on the St. Lawrence River. These operations are determined by the International Joint Commission and are required to balance several competing objectives (e.g., navigation, flood control, recreational boating, hydropower). Recently, the International Joint Commission altered the operational plan to help restore coastal wetlands. The floods of 2017 and 2019 followed soon after, and...
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The ability to effectively manage wildlife in North America is founded in an understanding of how human actions and the environment influence wildlife populations. Current management practices are informed by population monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about future population status. In most cases, including the regulation of waterfowl hunting in North America, these forecasts assume that the relationships we observed in the past will remain the same in the future. However, climate change is influencing wildlife populations in many dynamic and uncertain ways, leading to a situation in which our observations of the past are poor predictors of the future....
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Actionable science and stakeholder engagement are essential pillars in the science agenda of the nine regional USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) and their national headquarters. Collaboration with and product delivery to the Department of the Interior and other resource agencies have been central to the Centers’ mission. The effective engagement of stakeholders in defining science needs, designing research projects, interpreting project results, and communicating these results to the public have contributed to the unique successes of the Centers in developing actionable science. However, there is still significant opportunity to improve the engagement of stakeholders in climate adaptation science...
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Alaska is an ecologically, commercially, and recreationally diverse state, providing value to people and terrestrial and aquatic species alike. Presently, Alaska is experiencing climatic change faster than any other area of the United States, but across the state, comprehensive environmental monitoring is logistically difficult and expensive. For instance, only about 1% of U.S Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages are in Alaska, and only about 50% of those gages measure water temperature, an important climate change indicator. In this study, predictive models are being used to map stream temperatures under current and future climate scenarios across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins (YKRB) at the stream reach...
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Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Southwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and their associated disturbances, will change across the landscape. Decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about projected future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An accessible and forward-looking summary of what we know about the “future of fire” is urgently required in the Southwest and across the country...
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The proposed work will create a seamless pilot dataset of continuous basin characteristics (for example upstream average precipitation, elevation, or dominant land cover type) for the conterminous United States. Basin characteristic data are necessary for training or parameterizing statistical, machine learning, and physical models, and for making predictions across the landscape, particularly in areas where there are no observations. The pilot dataset will be accessible to the public via an interactive map and Web-based query service. The pilot dataset, USGS software used to produce it, and a publication on the processing methods will be generated. This work represents a substantial addition to USGS data services...
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Since the early 1970s, the negative impacts of small aircraft activity on local wildlife and subsistence hunting have been an ongoing concern expressed by rural communities in Arctic Alaska. More specifically, these communities have expressed concern that aircraft activity from industry, commercial (sport) hunting, research, and tourism is disturbing caribou by altering their behavior and movement and, for rural communities who rely on the subsistence hunting of caribou for food and resources, this change in behavior has reduced hunting opportunities. Residents of rural communities and agencies who manage human-wildlife interactions have requested more involvement of local stakeholder groups in the process addressing...
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Climate change adaptation research has made major advances over the last decade. For example, much is known about the impacts of climate change, many novel adaptation planning approaches have been developed, decision tools have become ubiquitous, and many novel adaptation options have been proposed. However, additional research is needed to demonstrate how these adaptation planning schemes can translate to implementation on the ground. The area in and around the Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks in Southern Sierra Nevada serve as ideal natural laboratories to study the impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of various on-the-ground forest treatments and restoration designs. Southern Sierra Nevada faces...
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The Prairie Pothole Region is recognized as one of the most productive areas for waterfowl in North America and supports an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s duck population. This important habitat is threatened by climate change and continued land-use change. The goal of this research is to establish a framework for assessing future impacts of climate and land-use change on Prairie Pothole wetland ecosystems in Minnesota and Iowa to better assist wetland managers in planning conservation actions. Historically, the southeast portion of the US Prairie Pothole Region in Minnesota and Iowa has faced some of the greatest challenges in wetland conservation. While advances have been made to restore these habitats,...
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Forests across the U.S. are experiencing unprecedented tree mortality caused by a variety of stressors, including invasive insects, disease, extreme weather, wildfires, and droughts. For example, the emerald ash borer, a nonnative insect, has killed tens of millions of trees in the Lake States region of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan alone in the past decade. Tree die offs alter the structure of forests, making them less-suitable habitat for many species, and decrease their ability to perform important ecosystem functions, such as carbon sequestration. Climate change further threatens already damaged forests, as shifting temperature and precipitation conditions alter species’ range limits. To prevent additional...
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The Northeast U.S. coast is experiencing some of the fastest rates of sea level rise in the world. The Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area is particularly at risk from sea level rise and coastal storm impacts. Erosion and storm impacts have already led to the degradation of shoreline habitats and protective structures (e.g., sea walls), as well as direct impacts to historic landmarks on some islands. The need to establish reliable methods for inventory and monitoring of marine nearshore habitats has emerged out of an effort to use the Boston Harbor Islands as study sites to understand how experimental manipulation of the coastline (e.g., the installation of in-water reefs) might reduce wave energy and...
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Forecasting fires in Alaska are, like anywhere else, “wicked problems” as wildfires arise from complex, climatically-driven social-environmental systems. However, given Alaska’s unique human and environmental histories and rapidly changing climate, the region features a combination of factors that may not exist anywhere else in the network. A useful fire synthesis for Alaska must, at the same time, therefore advance understanding of a) the dynamics of and responses to future wildfire, and b)management planning for and adaptation to those projected changes. Through existing research-management collaborations, the Alaska CASC has iteratively refined its approach to actionable (both by fire managers and agency planners)...
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Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about potential future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An effective forward-looking fire science synthesis is urgently required to reflect the changing dimensions of human fire management, recognizing that fire causes, effects, impacts, and management are all interrelated...
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The climate of the Southeast is changing rapidly. As streams warm and streamflow dynamics change due to climate and land-cover changes, previously unsuitable habitats may become hospitable for invasive species. Warmwater and large-river adapted invasive species such as Asian carps may move upstream as habitats that were previously too cold or had too little flow become welcoming environments for them as climate changes. The spread of invasive species will likely impact native fishes and dependent local economies like fishing and tourism. Within the Southeast, the Tennessee and Cumberland River Basins, located across 7 different US states, are among the most important in terms of total, narrow-ranged, and at-risk...
map background search result map search result map Determining Successful Management and Restoration Strategies for Pinyon-Juniper Communities in the Face of Changing Climate and Wildfire Climate- and Land-Cover-Induced Shifts in the Distribution and Abundance of Invasive Fish and Their Impacts on Native Fish Communities in the Tennessee and Cumberland River Basins Exploring the Potential for Adaptive Tree Plantings to Restore and Sustain Forest Habitats Across the Upper Lake States The Impact of Future Climate on Wetland Habitat in a Critical Migratory Waterfowl Corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region Linking Stream Fish Thermal Ecology and Adaptive Capacity to Inform Watershed-Based Management and Species Status Assessments A Decision Support System for Estimating Changes in Extreme Floods and Droughts in the Northeast U.S. Informing Management of Waterfowl Harvest in a Changing Climate Dynamic Climate Adaptation for Wetland Restoration and Coastal Communities on Lake Ontario Developing Strategies for Stakeholder Engagement and Climate Extension Services in the CASC Network: A Case Study in the Northeast CASC Designing Climate-Resilient Habitat for At-Risk Species in the Southern Sierra Nevada Forest A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests A Novel Monitoring Framework to Assess Intertidal Biodiversity in Mixed Coarse Substrate Habitats Across the Boston Harbor Islands Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Future of Fire in the Northwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Future of Fire in the Southwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Addressing Small Aircraft Noise Conflicts with Subsistence Hunting in Alaska Parks and Preserves – A Structured Decision Making Approach A Mobile Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to Inform Fire Management in Alaska A Novel Monitoring Framework to Assess Intertidal Biodiversity in Mixed Coarse Substrate Habitats Across the Boston Harbor Islands Determining Successful Management and Restoration Strategies for Pinyon-Juniper Communities in the Face of Changing Climate and Wildfire Dynamic Climate Adaptation for Wetland Restoration and Coastal Communities on Lake Ontario A Decision Support System for Estimating Changes in Extreme Floods and Droughts in the Northeast U.S. Future of Fire in the Northwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Linking Stream Fish Thermal Ecology and Adaptive Capacity to Inform Watershed-Based Management and Species Status Assessments A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests Designing Climate-Resilient Habitat for At-Risk Species in the Southern Sierra Nevada Forest Climate- and Land-Cover-Induced Shifts in the Distribution and Abundance of Invasive Fish and Their Impacts on Native Fish Communities in the Tennessee and Cumberland River Basins Addressing Small Aircraft Noise Conflicts with Subsistence Hunting in Alaska Parks and Preserves – A Structured Decision Making Approach Exploring the Potential for Adaptive Tree Plantings to Restore and Sustain Forest Habitats Across the Upper Lake States Future of Fire in the Southwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Developing Strategies for Stakeholder Engagement and Climate Extension Services in the CASC Network: A Case Study in the Northeast CASC Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska The Impact of Future Climate on Wetland Habitat in a Critical Migratory Waterfowl Corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region Informing Management of Waterfowl Harvest in a Changing Climate Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate A Mobile Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to Inform Fire Management in Alaska Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate