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Detailed, reliable projections of future changes in climate are needed by Hawai‘i’s resource managers, such as water utilities managers, land managers, conservation organizations, and decision makers. However, global climate models (or “general circulation models”), which are currently the most commonly used tool for projecting future climate variations, are known for representing large-scale climate patterns and are not ideal for simulating climate processes at small spatial scales, such as those relevant to Hawai’i’s climate. Traditionally, the technique of “downscaling” is used to bridge this gap between global climate models and local climate conditions. Due to the lack of downscaled datasets for Hawai’i, however,...
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Understanding and anticipating change in dynamic Earth systems is vital for societal adaptation and welfare. USGS possesses the multidisciplinary capabilities to anticipate Earth systems change, yet our work is often bound within a single discipline and/or Mission Area. The proposed work breaks new ground in moving USGS towards an interdisciplinary predictive modeling framework. We are initially leveraging three research elements that cross the Land Resources and Water Mission Areas in an attempt to “close the loop” in modeling interactions among water, land use, and climate. Using the Delaware River Basin as a proof-of-concept, we are modeling 1) historical and future landscapes (~1850 to 2100), 2) evapotranspiration...
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Fish and wildlife provide many important ecosystem and cultural services that support people, communities, and economies across the nation. Many observed changes in the global climate are already impacting the nation’s valuable natural resources. These impacts are expected to increase with continued changes in the climate system, putting our nation’s fish and wildlife at risk. State fish and wildlife agencies are at the forefront of addressing these risks but would greatly benefit from leveraging the expertise and resources of the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies and federal partners. This project will identify and meet specific needs of the nation’s state fish and wildlife agencies as they address...
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Healthy wetlands provide buffers against drought, flooding, pollution, and other threats to humans and nature. Climate change imperils wetland health, including impacting the connections among wetlands that facilitate movements and prevent extinctions of wetland-dependent wildlife. One wildlife group of considerable conservation concern and vulnerability to climate induced wetland changes is migratory shorebirds (a diverse group that includes sandpipers and plovers). Many shorebirds undertake long-distance migrations and have experienced sharp population declines, partly from loss of migratory stopover sites. During stopovers, shorebirds are thought to need a regional network of wetlands, with connections among...
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Integrating climate change into place-based conservation (i.e. focusing efforts on a specific place or region) presents a pressing challenge in the future success of biodiversity conservation. In particular, the broad effects of climate change can make it difficult to prioritize specific actions in specific places. Currently, Natural Heritage New Mexico, along with state and federal partners, has developed Conservation Opportunity Areas for New Mexico representing locations where limited conservation funds can be effectively used for the preservation of sensitive species. Although the existing Conservation Opportunity Areas represent a best estimate of where conservation activities are most likely to have favorable...
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Climate change impacts on forests, including drought and wildfire, are of increasing concern to managers, conservationists, researchers, and culture bearers in the Pacific Northwest. Warmer temperatures exacerbate forest stress by accelerating evaporation and drying-out of the land surface and vegetation. These hotter drought conditions have been implicated in recent tree mortality events regionally and across the globe. Managers need science-based tools to assess risks posed by droughts, heat waves, and other climate-induced stressors, as well as practical solutions for adapting current management practices. The realities of climate change have spurred interest in tailoring silvicultural practices to increase forest...
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Loss of saltmarsh habitat is one of the biggest threats to coastal sustainability in the Northeast. Salt marsh has been identified as an essential fish and wildlife habitat, and loss of saltmarsh corresponds with precipitous declines in marsh-dependent wildlife. For example, the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrow is predicted to collapse within the next 50 years after experiencing a 9% annual decline across the northeastern U.S. Resource managers require tools to help restore salt marsh habitat for wildlife by adapting marshes to climate change-driven sea level rise. However, adaptation approaches need to be tested and evaluated before widespread application. Researchers are testing a rapidly emerging sea...
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Increasingly, USGS scientists seek to share and collaborate while working on data and code. Furthermore, these scientists often require advanced computing resources. Jupyter Notebooks are one such tool for creating these workflows. The files are interactive, code “notebooks” which allow users to combine code and text in one document, enabling scientists to share the stories held within their data. Recently, USGS launched an instance of Pangeo—a community platform for Big Data geoscience—as a tool for internally hosting and executing these notebooks. Few examples exist on how to use Pangeo and no formal documentation exists for USGS scientists to use Pangeo. We will create and curate examples of using Jupyter Notebooks...
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Aspen forests are considered keystone ecosystems, meaning that loss of aspen habitat would result in negative impacts to numerous plant and animal species. Aspen also provide important economic and social benefits, including drawing tourists, serving as potential fire breaks, improving local economies, and providing forage for wildlife and livestock. Ecologically-valuable aspen forests are considered at risk in many areas of the western U.S., but especially in lower-elevation areas. Risks to aspen include climate-change and past land use. The effects of drought and browsing animals (that eat young aspen) are often more severe for lower-elevation aspen and can threaten aspen forest health and long-term persistence....
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Nearshore marine ecosystems in Alaska and Hawai‘i rely heavily on organic materials and nutrients delivered by rivers and streams. It is hypothesized that the magnitude and timing of stream flows influences this delivery of materials to coastal ecosystems. However, despite previous research on the topic, there is still considerable uncertainty about how stream flow may influence these land-to-water (“ridge-to-reef") linkages, and how climate change induced shifts in runoff may ripple across ecosystem boundaries to influence estuary and nearshore marine ecosystems and species of cultural and commercial importance (e.g., Pacific salmon, gobies, and coral reefs). This project is a collaborative study to examine...
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Cyanobacteria blooms are one of the most significant management challenges in the Great Lakes today. Recurring blooms of varying toxicity are commonly observed in four of the Great Lakes, and the fifth, Lake Superior, has experienced intermittent nearshore blooms since 2012. The recent advent of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Superior is disconcerting, given the highly valued, pristine water quality of the large lake. It is possible that the ecological state of Lake Superior is shifting and that we are witnessing the beginnings of larger and longer lasting bloom events. As a public resource, the coastal water quality of Lake Superior has tremendous economic, public health, and environmental value, and therefore,...
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Fisheries managers in Midwestern lakes and reservoirs are tasked with balancing multiple management objectives to help maintain healthy fish populations across a landscape of diverse lakes. As part of this, managers monitor fish growth and survival. Growth rates in particular are indicators of population health, and directly influence the effectiveness of regulations designed to protect spawning fish or to promote trophy fishing opportunities. Growth, combined with reproduction and survival, also determines the amount of fish biomass available for harvest, known as population production. Changing water temperatures can influence growth and production of managed fish species in multiple complex ways, increasing the...
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Over two-thirds of all landbirds (i.e. birds that spend the majority of their lives in terrestrial environments) in North America migrate long-distances to areas in Mexico, Central and South America and the Caribbean islands. Habitats within Texas and Louisiana support high numbers of birds when they interrupt their migratory journeys through the Gulf of Mexico region to “stopover” for resting and refueling. These stopover habitats are often in areas experiencing human population growth and are impacted by natural disturbances and climate change. Predicted habitat loss from sea level rise and extreme weather events coupled with mismatches in the timing of peak bird migration and peak food abundance may limit the...
Crayfish are considered keystone species that impact multiple aquatic trophic levels, substantially influence aquatic production through the processing of course particulate organic matter and serve as prey for more than 200 species (DiStefano 2005). Out of 571 crayfish species and subspecies worldwide, 77 percent are native to North America. Approximately 50 percent of North American crayfish are considered in need of protection, primarily due to the spread of invasive crayfish. One of these crayfish species, Faxonius marchandi (Mammoth Spring Crayfish), is a narrow-ranged endemic occurring in the Ozark Highlands of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri and is under consideration by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife...
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Inland recreational fishing, defined as primarily leisure-driven fishing in freshwaters, is a popular past-time which can provide substantial contributions to human consumption which are often overlooked at global scales. Here, we aim to establish a baseline of national inland recreational consumption estimates with species specificity to identify the nutritional composition and total use value of this recreational consumption.
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Aquatic invasive species threaten our lakes, streams, and wetlands. These species not only change the biology within the waterbody, but they can change the way we use those waterbodies and the resources they produce. Those changes may have large economic impacts, such as direct management costs and indirect costs to fisheries, tourism and commerce. These species can be small like zebra mussels or large like Asian carp, but one thing they have in common is being difficult to manage and to prevent further spread. To help inform control measures for aquatic invasive species, local, state, and federal natural resource management agencies have been working to develop risk assessments to understand the potential spread...
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Downed wood on the forest floor does more than provide habitat for amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. These decomposing habitat structures modify the temperature and moisture conditions in the forest itself. Inside and around downed wood, local climate conditions, or microclimates, provide wildlife with stable habitats that allow for persistence during and after wildfires. Cooler, wetter microclimates buffer the effects of wildfire in Oregon’s forests, making microclimate an important component of forest management. Despite the significance of downed wood to forest ecosystem function, forest management practices require only two downed logs to be retained for every acre harvested. To better inform forest management...
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In the mid-1800s, tile-drains were installed in poorly-drained soils of topographic lows as water management to protect cropland during wet conditions; consequently, estimations of tile-drain location have been based on soil series. Most tile drains are in the Midwest, however each state has farms with tile and tile-drain density has increased in the last decade. Where tile drains quickly remove water from fields, groundwater and stream water interaction can change, affecting water availability and flooding. Nutrients and sediment can quickly travel to streams thru tile, contributing to harmful algal blooms and hypoxia in large water bodies. Tile drains are below the soil surface, about 1 m deep, but their location...
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There is a growing movement within natural resource management to view wildlife health as a cumulative outcome of many different factors, rather than simply the absence of disease. This inclusive understanding of health opens the door to management options that are more creative than traditional techniques aimed at preventing or mitigating pathogens. The public health field uses a related concept known as the “health gradient” that suggests that the ease or difficulty with which an individual successfully fends off various health hazards depends on external determinants-of-health, such as income, education, and surrounding community. This perspective facilitates a harm reduction strategy that emphasizes actions...
map background search result map search result map The Impact of Future Climate Variability on Shorebirds and Their Wetland Habitats in the South Central U.S. Developing a Climate Change-Informed “Conservation Opportunity Area” Portfolio for Sensitive Species’ Preservation Adapting to Climate Change: Trends and Severe Storm Responses by Migratory Landbirds and Their Habitats Climate, Storms, and the Drivers of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lake Superior Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Growth and Production to Enable Sustainable Management of Diverse Inland Fisheries Scoping the Feasibility of Incorporating Climate Change into Risk Assessments of Aquatic Invasive Species in the Upper Midwest Mapping Salt Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise and Evaluating 'Runneling' as an Adaptation Technique to Inform Wildlife Habitat Management in New England Exploring Large Downed Wood as Post-Fire Refugia for Terrestrial Salamanders in Pacific Northwest Forests Harnessing the Hydraulic Traits of Trees to Adapt Forest Management in the Pacific Northwest Vulnerability of Lower-Elevation Aspen Forests to Altered Fire and Climate Dynamics: Assessing Risks and Developing Actionable Science Assessing the Impact of Changing Water Resources on Migratory Bird Health and Management in the Central Flyway Preliminary Investigation of Machine Learning Approaches to Improve Projections of Future Climate in Hawai‘i Estimating Global Inland Recreational Consumption to Adapt to Global Change From Land to Sea: How Will Shifts in Stream Flow Influence Delivery of Nutrients, Organic Matter, and Organisms to Alaska and Hawai‘i Nearshore Marine Ecosystems? Assessing State Fish and Wildlife Climate Adaptation Science Needs and Effectiveness Climate, Storms, and the Drivers of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lake Superior Mapping Salt Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise and Evaluating 'Runneling' as an Adaptation Technique to Inform Wildlife Habitat Management in New England Developing a Climate Change-Informed “Conservation Opportunity Area” Portfolio for Sensitive Species’ Preservation Exploring Large Downed Wood as Post-Fire Refugia for Terrestrial Salamanders in Pacific Northwest Forests Harnessing the Hydraulic Traits of Trees to Adapt Forest Management in the Pacific Northwest Scoping the Feasibility of Incorporating Climate Change into Risk Assessments of Aquatic Invasive Species in the Upper Midwest Adapting to Climate Change: Trends and Severe Storm Responses by Migratory Landbirds and Their Habitats Preliminary Investigation of Machine Learning Approaches to Improve Projections of Future Climate in Hawai‘i Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Growth and Production to Enable Sustainable Management of Diverse Inland Fisheries The Impact of Future Climate Variability on Shorebirds and Their Wetland Habitats in the South Central U.S. Assessing the Impact of Changing Water Resources on Migratory Bird Health and Management in the Central Flyway Vulnerability of Lower-Elevation Aspen Forests to Altered Fire and Climate Dynamics: Assessing Risks and Developing Actionable Science From Land to Sea: How Will Shifts in Stream Flow Influence Delivery of Nutrients, Organic Matter, and Organisms to Alaska and Hawai‘i Nearshore Marine Ecosystems? Assessing State Fish and Wildlife Climate Adaptation Science Needs and Effectiveness Estimating Global Inland Recreational Consumption to Adapt to Global Change