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The Northern Glaciated Plains in the upper Midwest United States is a region where fishing generates millions of dollars a year for local and state economies. Maintaining these revenues requires the management of fish populations that are popular and accessible (e.g. boat ramps, public land access) to anglers. Fisheries throughout the world are currently undergoing unprecedented changes to water levels and habitat quality resulting from climate change. The consequences of climate change to Northern Glaciated Plains fisheries are unknown but pose an immediate challenge for resource managers as angler access and opportunities can be jeopardized when: a) boat ramps become inaccessible due to changing water levels,...
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As climate change progresses, profound environmental changes are becoming a widespread concern. A new management paradigm is developing to address this concern with a framework that encourages strategic decisions to resist, accept, or direct ecological trajectories. Effective use of the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework requires the scientific community to describe the range of plausible ecological conditions managers might face, while recognizing limits to our ability to predict precisely where or how specific climatic changes may unfold or how complex environmental systems will respond - the climatic future does not fully determine the ecological one. Recent advances have improved development and delivery...
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As climate change looms large, the Aaniiihnen and Nakoda people of the Fort Belknap Indian Community are undertaking a climate change impact assessment in the Little Rocky Mountains to better prepare for the future. This mountain range is home to numerous food and medicinal species of cultural importance. It is critical to understand how climate change has affected and will affect availability of these species and the cultural implications for the Tribe in order to enhance food sovereignty and cultural resiliency, improve tribal health, and maintain local biodiversity. The project will assess the presence and distribution of valued species including subalpine fir, juneberry, chokecherry, and others, while engaging...
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Surface-water availability has been identified as one of the biggest issues facing society in the 21st century. Where and when water is on the landscape can have profound impacts on the economy, wildlife behavior, recreational use, industrial practices, energy development, and many other aspects of life, society, and the environment. Projections indicate that surface-water availability will be generally reduced in the future because of multiple factors including climate change, increased drought frequency and severity, and altered water and land use. Thus, it is important resource managers understand which areas are most vulnerable to reduced water availability impacts, and to what extent current conditions may...
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Natural & cultural resource managers are facing a slew of new challenges for managing public lands stemming from climate change and human-driven stressors like invasive species, fragmentation, and new resource uses. In some cases, the very landscapes and species they are managing are changing in significant ways, transforming from one set of conditions to another. As a result, previously successful management strategies may become less effective, or in some cases ineffective. New and transforming conditions leave managers in a bind on how to respond to transforming public lands and natural resources. On the most basic level managers have three choices of how to respond: resist change, accept change, or direct change...
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Natural resource managers planning for increased incidence of droughts, floods, and other climate change impacts in the North Central region are in charge of management strategies that can impact the well-being of rural communities in the region. Gaining a better understanding of how resource management decisions may impact rural communities can allow for better consideration of the costs and benefits of resource management decisions. Identifying these impacts is especially important as these communities are often already unfairly disadvantaged and more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This project will focus on exploring the ways in which natural resource management decisions affect rural and tribal...
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Atmospheric warming is driving a shift in precipitation from snow to rain, changing precipitation intensity and seasonality, and increasing atmospheric demand for moisture in mountain river watersheds across the western United States. These changes will likely alter the timing and quantity of streamflow in rivers draining from the mountains. The Tongue River flows from the Bighorn mountains in north-central Wyoming into Montana through alpine meadows to sagebrush steppe, prior to its confluence with the Yellowstone River at Miles City, MT. The Tongue River is a little-studied river with hydrologic conditions (e.g. water flow, temperature, quantity) relevant to Tribal water rights and management, fisheries, interstate...
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Tribal Partnership Science (TPS) is a rapidly growing field that brings together biophysical and social scientists, federally recognized tribes, and federal land management agencies. TPS is essential for addressing complex environmental challenges facing tribes and their homelands. In recent years, a proliferation of methods, frameworks, and guidance for TPS has emerged from diverse scientific disciplines, geographies, and management contexts. This has made it difficult for scientists to keep up with the latest developments and to apply them effectively. This project will synthesize, pragmatize, and tailor the science-to-date for TPS in the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we will produce a cohesive...
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Land and water managers often rely on hydrological models to make informed management decisions. Understanding water availability in streams, rivers, and reservoirs during high demand periods that coincide with seasonal low flows can affect how water managers plan for its distribution for human consumption while sustaining aquatic ecosystems. Substantial advancement in hydrological modeling has occurred in the last several decades resulting in models that range widely in complexity and outputs. However, managers can still struggle to make informed decisions with these models for a variety of reasons, including misalignments between model outputs and the specific decision they are intended to inform, limitations...
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The long-term success of management efforts in sagebrush habitats are increasingly complicated by the impacts of a changing climate throughout the western United States. These complications are most evident in the ongoing challenges of drought and altered rangeland fire regimes resulting from the establishment of nonnative annual grasses. The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy recognized these growing threats to sagebrush habitat and initiated the development of an Actionable Science Plan to help the scientific and management communities address the highest priority science needs to help improve rangeland management efficacy in the West. Since the establishment of the original Integrated Rangeland Fire...
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Dry stream sections are characteristic of most prairie streams. Native fish are highly adapted to variable environments, using refuge habitats (e.g., remaining wet stream fragments) to recolonize areas after seasonal drying. However, dams and other barriers can prevent recolonization of seasonally-dry stream sections habitats known to be critical spawning and rearing areas for many species. This phenomenon will likely become more common as climate change causes increasingly severe droughts, and larger sections of streams become seasonally dry. This could lead to local loss of native prairie fishes, an already at-risk group. Fisheries managers in Wyoming and Montana have limited data on climate impacts to prairie...
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A rapidly changing climate during this century poses a high risk for impacts to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods. A better understanding of how climate change might alter temperature, precipitation, heat stress, water availability and other extreme weather metrics in the coming century would be useful to natural resource managers at the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service in the North Central region. Particularly, when they prepare to conduct Species Status Assessments to better evaluate risk to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods resulting from a changing climate. Scientists have traditionally gone through the time intensive process of extracting and analyzing different climate datasets...


    map background search result map search result map Crafting Ecological Scenarios to Implement the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools Future Streamflow Estimates for Tongue River to Enable Northern Cheyenne Data Driven Water Management and Planning State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes Co-Creating an Integrated Climate Impact Assessment of First Foods and Medicine in the Little Rocky Mountains for the Aaniiihnen Nakoda Nations Impact of Climate Driven Changes to Water Levels on Recreational Fisheries in the Northern Glaciated Plains Development of a Surface Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) Database to Assess Surface Water Availability for Ecohydrological Refugia Cross-Park RAD Project (CPRP): A Case Study in Four National Parks Investigating How Institutional Context and Emotions Shape Manager Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Change in Transforming Ecosystems Providing a Climate Science Foundation for Updating the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan Understanding the Intersection of Climate Vulnerability and Resource Management in Rural Communities Developing Resources for Tribal Partnership Science Future Streamflow Estimates for Tongue River to Enable Northern Cheyenne Data Driven Water Management and Planning Understanding the Intersection of Climate Vulnerability and Resource Management in Rural Communities Impact of Climate Driven Changes to Water Levels on Recreational Fisheries in the Northern Glaciated Plains State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions Co-Creating an Integrated Climate Impact Assessment of First Foods and Medicine in the Little Rocky Mountains for the Aaniiihnen Nakoda Nations The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes Development of a Surface Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) Database to Assess Surface Water Availability for Ecohydrological Refugia Crafting Ecological Scenarios to Implement the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools Providing a Climate Science Foundation for Updating the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan Cross-Park RAD Project (CPRP): A Case Study in Four National Parks Investigating How Institutional Context and Emotions Shape Manager Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Change in Transforming Ecosystems Developing Resources for Tribal Partnership Science