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In 2020, in partnership with the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC), the Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (MW CASC) completed a four-part process to identify climate science priorities for both the Northeast and Midwest regions. The process included: structured feedback from an advisory committee, the completion of six listening sessions, feedback from project partners, and a review of regional climate initiatives. These efforts identified five management challenges for the MW CASC: 1) heavy precipitation events and drought, 2) loss of winter, 3) altered water levels, flows and temperatures, 4) new terrestrial landscapes resulting from climate change, and 5) barriers and opportunities...
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Land and water managers often rely on hydrological models to make informed management decisions. Understanding water availability in streams, rivers, and reservoirs during high demand periods that coincide with seasonal low flows can affect how water managers plan for its distribution for human consumption while sustaining aquatic ecosystems. Substantial advancement in hydrological modeling has occurred in the last several decades resulting in models that range widely in complexity and outputs. However, managers can still struggle to make informed decisions with these models for a variety of reasons, including misalignments between model outputs and the specific decision they are intended to inform, limitations...
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The long-term success of management efforts in sagebrush habitats are increasingly complicated by the impacts of a changing climate throughout the western United States. These complications are most evident in the ongoing challenges of drought and altered rangeland fire regimes resulting from the establishment of nonnative annual grasses. The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy recognized these growing threats to sagebrush habitat and initiated the development of an Actionable Science Plan to help the scientific and management communities address the highest priority science needs to help improve rangeland management efficacy in the West. Since the establishment of the original Integrated Rangeland Fire...
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Climate Change is making our environment unpredictable. Increased persistence of drought is causing deaths of plants and animals across our landscapes. However, drought amongst the western United States is not a new thing. Native American populations have been living with drought since time immemorial and practiced culturally prescribed fire practices to foster the landscape for an environment that provides resources for tribal livelihoods and traditional practices (Marks-Block et al. 2019). The United States Geologic Survey and the Yurok Tribe are partnering to study the effects of prescribed burns actively occurring in Yurok Ancestral Territory. Prescribed burns promote a healthy ecosystem through positively...
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Native mussels are in precipitous decline across North America. As part of the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation’s (CTUIR) First Foods management framework that places significant value on the cultural importance of traditional food resources, they have been identified as a top conservation priority in the Pacific Northwest. Freshwater mussels are a vital component of river ecosystems, a historic food resource, and were used for adornment, jewelry, tools, and trade. Yet, little is known about the basic biology and ecology of these organisms, including where they are, how many of them remain, and what habitat characteristics (e.g., water temperature, flow, etc.) are important to them. There is...
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Since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost approximately 1,900 mi2 of land due to coastal erosion, land subsidence, and sea-level rise exacerbated by climate change, putting Native American archaeological sites along Louisiana’s Gulf Coast in danger of being destroyed. These cultural resources are crucial sources of information and represent the unique heritage of coastal Louisiana. Federal and State agency resource managers, coastal communities, and regional stakeholders would benefit from up-to-date science-based information on these endangered cultural resources and on climate-informed management options. In partnership with the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana, a team of University archaeologists, climate scientists,...
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One of the largest and most expensive restoration efforts in the world is the restoration of the Everglades, a sub-tropical freshwater wetland system located in southern Florida. This unique ecosystem supports several endemic and endangered species, provides flood control for Florida’s large urban population, and provides water for both the agricultural and drinking supply within the state. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), authorized by Congress in 2000, guides federal, state, and local efforts to build the infrastructure necessary to bring more water into the Everglades and restore its ecological integrity. The Everglades flows into the southern coast of Florida and restoration efforts are...
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This project seeks to enhance the stewardship of historic buildings vulnerable to climate change impacts. As sea level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion threaten our nation’s cultural heritage, there is a critical need to ensure that climate change adaptation decisions, including what cultural resources will be “let go”, are transparent and informed by the opinion of people whose heritage is tied to those resources. This project aims to enhance an existing decision support framework that supports adaptation planning by the National Park Service at coastal parks. The researchers of this project will focus particularly on Cape Lookout National Seashore. The current decision support framework, called the...
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Climate change is reshaping the abundance and distribution of sport fishes across the U.S., creating novel challenges for socially and economically important recreational fisheries. Existing fish and recreational fisheries data sets are invaluable given their broad geographic footprint and long-term data, but integration across datasets to inform management has been limited, leading to obstacles in collaborative research and management efforts. Agencies that manage recreational fisheries also conduct angler surveys to assess how anglers may affect fish populations, however they are rarely integrated with other datasets or with consideration of how climate change may affect the fish available to anglers. In this...
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Habitat loss is splitting the world’s plant and animal populations into smaller, more isolated fragments. At the same time, many organisms must also withstand rapid and stressful changes to their environment. Combined, these factors can increase extinction risk. A possible escape from extinction is through adaptation. Yet, small populations with low genetic diversity may be unable to adapt in time to keep pace with environmental change. One strategy to mitigate these problems is to move individuals from larger, more resilient populations with higher genetic variation into small, declining populations to induce 'genetic rescue'. This project will use cutting-edge genomic tools to evaluate the potential for genetic...
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Drought is a common result of climate variability in the south-central United States. With increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation patterns expected in the future, drought will continue to stress water quantity and quality in this region. University of Oklahoma researchers have demonstrated that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a measure of long-term drought conditions, can help predict drought patterns at multi-county scales in south-central Oklahoma. The model forecasts future PDSI using larger-scale climate drivers, commonly referred to as “teleconnections,” such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These teleconnections...
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Dry stream sections are characteristic of most prairie streams. Native fish are highly adapted to variable environments, using refuge habitats (e.g., remaining wet stream fragments) to recolonize areas after seasonal drying. However, dams and other barriers can prevent recolonization of seasonally-dry stream sections habitats known to be critical spawning and rearing areas for many species. This phenomenon will likely become more common as climate change causes increasingly severe droughts, and larger sections of streams become seasonally dry. This could lead to local loss of native prairie fishes, an already at-risk group. Fisheries managers in Wyoming and Montana have limited data on climate impacts to prairie...
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The warming climate combined with a century of fuel build up (i.e. burnable plant materials found in the forest) due to fire suppression are driving megafires that threaten life and property and are severely altering ecosystems. Many of these fires are converting large areas of forest to shrub fields or grasslands, termed “ecological transformations.” Although uncharacteristically severe fires are contributing to these changes, lower intensity fire is a key ecological process that sustains native ecosystems, increases ecological resilience, and guides climate change adaptation. Planned fires (e.g., prescribed fire) are the most efficient management activity that can be performed at scales large enough to address...
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Hawaiʻi is often referred to as the endangered species capital of the world, with hundreds of species at risk. While Hawaiian forest birds have garnered attention in the global conservation community as they face imminent extinction due to climate change, climate also poses serious challenges to hundreds of other Hawaiian species. Although traditional recovery plans provide meaningful guidance to managers, it is impractical and inefficient to work across multiple individual plans for hundreds of species at risk when the species, threats, and conservation actions overlap in complex ways. Until recently, a structured approach to aid the scaling-up of such conservation efforts across multiple species was not available....
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As climate change is impacting water resources and aquatic ecosystems, there is a great need for natural resource managers to assess adaptation measures in a holistic manner. This can be done by integrating model predictions of climate, hydrology, and ecosystems with observational data to better refine estimates of conditions on-the-ground; however, it can be challenging to combine these different data types due to differences in the scale or accuracy of each model. Scientific machine learning a type of artificial intelligence that continues to learn as more data is available, could provide a novel and flexible way of combining observations and models. This project aims to develop a data-driven modeling framework...
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A rapidly changing climate during this century poses a high risk for impacts to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods. A better understanding of how climate change might alter temperature, precipitation, heat stress, water availability and other extreme weather metrics in the coming century would be useful to natural resource managers at the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service in the North Central region. Particularly, when they prepare to conduct Species Status Assessments to better evaluate risk to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods resulting from a changing climate. Scientists have traditionally gone through the time intensive process of extracting and analyzing different climate datasets...
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Climate change is impacting the land and resources that Alaska Native peoples rely on for food security, resource management, and cultural continuity. In Southeast Alaska, communities face increased weather variability due to climate change, which impacts subsistence food resources in streams and coastal ocean waters. Alaska Native communities are asking for co-production models of scientific research that involve authentic partnerships and provide direct and tangible solutions to pressing climate adaptation challenges. Co-production of knowledge is broadly recognized as a valuable approach to climate research, but there is a lack of information about how to successfully implement and evaluate the co-production...
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Salt marshes are grassy wetlands that form along sheltered coastlines. These areas provide crucial habitats for many species of birds and other animals, in addition to recreational activities and economic opportunities. Marshes also protect the coast from storms and filter runoff from the landscape, ensuring cleaner and healthier coastal waters. As climate change causes sea levels to rise salt marshes are at risk of being drowned out if they are unable to grow quickly enough to stay above the rising tides. In order to build elevation and endure sea level rise, marshes trap sediment from tidal waters, which accumulates over time to build a platform that marsh grass can grow on. Along exposed coasts, humans have...
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Future climate conditions may dramatically impact many of the natural resources, cultural resources, and ecosystem services on which society depends. To ensure the long-term sustainability of these resources, decision-makers across many domains (e.g. federal, state, NGO, Tribal) commonly consider climate forecasts in their strategic planning efforts. In the South Central United States, future climate conditions are routinely considered in plans for water sustainability, agricultural production, the design of new infrastructure, urban heat impacts, and decisions to federally list a species as threatened or endangered. Scientists have developed sophisticated projections of future climate conditions and their impacts...
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Fires are becoming more extensive and severe in the West, and post-fire recovery is a challenge for communities as they adapt to a changing climate. Post-fire management can involve watershedrehabilitation, recovering valuable trees, and replanting to prevent forest loss and damage to watersheds. Land management agencies that make decisions may prioritize goals that differ from those of local populations--especially Native American Tribes, who may focus primarily on recovering non-timber values, such wetlands or species that provide food, fiber, or medicine, on their reservations and on their ancestral homelands. The goal of this research is to inform post-fire management and policy, so it is more responsive to...
map background search result map search result map Developing and Testing a Drought Early Warning Product in the South-Central United States Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes Native and Invasive Bivalves in the Pacific Northwest: Co-occurrence, Habitat Associations and Potential Competition in the Face of Climate Change The Importance of Forests for All People: Understanding Forest Recovery Priorities, Management Options, and Policy Needs for Tribes in Post-Fire Landscapes Providing a Climate Science Foundation for Updating the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan Next Generation Fire Modeling to Inform the Management of Climate and Fire Driven Ecological Transformations in the Rio Grande Basin Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Loss on Native American Archaeological Sites in Coastal Louisiana Improving Water Resilience and Availability Through Culturally Prescribed Fires as a Management Tool on Yurok Tribal Lands Examining Diverse Management Objectives and Broadening Stakeholder Engagement for Climate Adaptation Planning of Historic Structures within the National Park System Integrating Sea Level Rise Scenarios into Everglades Restoration Planning Leveraging Genomic Data to Increase Adaptive Potential and Inform Management Action for the Endangered Mitchell's Satyr Butterfly Under Climate Change Effects of Urban Coastal Armoring on Salt Marsh Sediment Supplies and Resilience to Climate Change Co-producing Climate Research and Adaptation through Partnerships with Alaska Native Communities Technical Assessment of Climate Science Needs in the Midwest Applying a Novel Spatial Prioritization Technique to Support Climate Resilient Conservation Planning for the Recovery of 300 Endangered and At Risk Species in Maui Nui Exploring How Stakeholders Use, Understand, and Feel about Climate Science Products Integrating Multiple Data Sets to Inform Climate Adaptation Strategies for Inland Fish and Recreational Fishing Future of Aquatic Flows: A Data-driven Framework to Inform Projections of Aquatic Flows in the Northeast Integrating Sea Level Rise Scenarios into Everglades Restoration Planning Examining Diverse Management Objectives and Broadening Stakeholder Engagement for Climate Adaptation Planning of Historic Structures within the National Park System Improving Water Resilience and Availability Through Culturally Prescribed Fires as a Management Tool on Yurok Tribal Lands Next Generation Fire Modeling to Inform the Management of Climate and Fire Driven Ecological Transformations in the Rio Grande Basin Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Loss on Native American Archaeological Sites in Coastal Louisiana Effects of Urban Coastal Armoring on Salt Marsh Sediment Supplies and Resilience to Climate Change Future of Aquatic Flows: A Data-driven Framework to Inform Projections of Aquatic Flows in the Northeast State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions Co-producing Climate Research and Adaptation through Partnerships with Alaska Native Communities Native and Invasive Bivalves in the Pacific Northwest: Co-occurrence, Habitat Associations and Potential Competition in the Face of Climate Change The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes Leveraging Genomic Data to Increase Adaptive Potential and Inform Management Action for the Endangered Mitchell's Satyr Butterfly Under Climate Change Applying a Novel Spatial Prioritization Technique to Support Climate Resilient Conservation Planning for the Recovery of 300 Endangered and At Risk Species in Maui Nui Technical Assessment of Climate Science Needs in the Midwest Developing and Testing a Drought Early Warning Product in the South-Central United States Exploring How Stakeholders Use, Understand, and Feel about Climate Science Products The Importance of Forests for All People: Understanding Forest Recovery Priorities, Management Options, and Policy Needs for Tribes in Post-Fire Landscapes Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools Providing a Climate Science Foundation for Updating the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan Integrating Multiple Data Sets to Inform Climate Adaptation Strategies for Inland Fish and Recreational Fishing