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Wildfire, drought, and insects are reshaping forests in the Western United States in a manner that is being exacerbated by warming temperatures. Disturbance events such as these can significantly alter the amount of land that is covered by forest in an area or region. Consequently, changes in forest cover from disturbance can impact water runoff conditions leading to dangerous flooding, erosion, and water quality issues. These events can be costly for society. In response, many land managers are using forest thinning and prescribed burning practices to reduce disturbance impacts, especially those that are caused by high-severity wildfire. In contrast to the wealth of research on the advantages of forest thinning...
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Drought is a common consequence of climate variability in the south-central U.S., but they are expected to occur more often and become more intense with climate change. Natural resource managers can improve their planning efforts with advance warnings of impending drought. Using input from resource managers in the Chickasaw Nation, this research team previously created models that forecast droughts up to 18 months in advance with information about their expected timing and intensity. Developed for all climate divisions in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, these drought models rely on input from predictor variables associated with global weather patterns like El Niño and La Niña. However, it is unclear...
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The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has several Communities of Practice (CoPs) focused on resource manager needs across the region (e.g. understanding at-risk species and ecosystems, building resilient coastal ecosystems, extreme weather and climate change, etc.). Each CoP has expertise in the subject matter and has been working on projects that are relevant to the resource community, including conducting literature reviews and small-scale pilot projects. The current research project will leverage the expertise of the existing CoPs to enhance the content available through the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) as identified through the partnership between the South Central...
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As part of the State Wildlife Grant Fund, states are required to submit State Wildlife Plans (SWAPs) every 10 years detailing threats to habitats and species and conservation plans. However, incorporating climate change in SWAPs is voluntary, and capacity/expertise limitations at state agencies have resulted in varied and often only partial consideration of climate change impacts. In response, the MW CASC will conduct literature reviews to assess climate stressors and impacts to habitats and key species and to identify relevant adaptation actions for 13 different Level 2/3 EPA Ecoregions contained within the MW CASC area states. This work will provide a foundation for future habitat vulnerability assessments. ...
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Natural resource managers and researchers often need long-term averages of historical and future climate scenarios for their study area yet may not have the resources to make these summaries. This project will provide high quality, detailed maps of historical and projected future climate and hydrologic conditions for California and a finer scale version for southern California. The project will also assess the feasibility of expanding these reference data to the southwestern US and identify the most suitable online data portals for the public to view and analyze the data in support of local initiatives. The map products can be used to assess the impacts of ongoing climate change and to develop climate adaptation...
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Characterized by their extreme size, intensity, and severity, megafires are the most destructive, dangerous, and costly wildfires in the U.S. Over the past two decades, megafires have become more frequent in Oklahoma and Texas along with increasing extreme weather events and changes to fuel types caused by woody plant encroachment into grasslands. As climate change and woody plant encroachment are expected to continue or even accelerate, it is important to evaluate megafire risks and locate high-risk areas. This project will develop a new Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) and make future projections of megafire probability in Oklahoma and Texas from 2024 to 2100. Outcomes and products from this project will...
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The amount of water flowing through a stream is an important driver of aquatic habitat, but scientists don’t often measure streamflow in the small stream networks that feed larger rivers. Monitoring smaller streams is especially important as climate change is causing them to (a) flood more often and more intensely, and (b) lose habitat as drought events and water temperatures increase. A better understanding of the changing patterns of flow and temperatures in small streams can help decision makers evaluate which streams will provide suitable habitat for plants and animals under a changing climate. Specific goals of this project are to 1) understand how water flow and temperature interact in small streams and 2)...
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In the North Central region, invasive species and climate change are intricately linked to changing fire regimes, and together, these drivers can have pronounced effects on ecosystems. When fires burn too hot or too frequently, they can prevent slow-growing native plants from regrowing. When this happens, the landscape can transform into a new type of ecosystem, such as a forest becoming a grassland. This process is known as “ecosystem transformation”. This project will explore key management priorities including native community resilience and management of invasive species, wildfire, and ecosystem change, in a collaboration of researchers working directly with land managers and other stakeholders through the...
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Recently intensifying drought conditions have caused increased stress to non-native tamarisk vegetation across riparian areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter Tribe) and the Upper Gila River watershed in Arizona and New Mexico. This also increases wildfire risk in the area, making the removal of tamarisk vegetation a primary restoration and climate adaptation objective for the Tribe. The research from this project can improve the Tribe’s capacity to map tamarisk and other riparian vegetation, in addition to monitoring the relative condition and water stress of the vegetation in a timely manner. Specifically, the project will help identify where tamarisk is on the reservation and inform restoration actions...
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Species are adapted to particular environmental conditions, but are threatened as climate change shifts habitat conditions. One way species can respond is by moving to new suitable locations, known as climate-driven range shifts. But some species can move more easily and/or more quickly than others, and some landscapes are more difficult to cross. In the upper Midwest, the movement potential of many species is reduced by broad expanses of row-crop agriculture, roads and other types of development that fragment the remaining habitat. It is important to sustain and improve connectivity across landscapes so they can continue to support biodiversity and ecosystem services like water filtration, carbon storage, pollinator...
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Mosquito-borne disease is the biggest threat to Hawai‘i’s remaining native forest birds, of which more than half are threatened or endangered. Currently, disease-carrying mosquitoes are unable to move into colder high-elevation forests, but as the islands warm due to climate change, mosquitoes are steadily moving into the last native bird strongholds. Mosquito suppression efforts are planned for three Hawaiian Islands, however, there is currently no monitoring program to assess the effectiveness of those efforts. To address this pressing need, this project will develop new monitoring tools and protocols to provide managers with information about changes in bird and mosquito numbers that are related to climate change...
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Loko iʻa, Hawaiian fishponds, are part of a rich history of indigenous aquaculture dating back to the 1400s. These unique ecosystems serve as key models of food sustainability across Hawaiʻi and the Pacific region. Hawaiʻi, among the most geographically isolated regions throughout the world, currently faces many challenges including environmental uncertainties, increasing urbanization, a growing population, and a dangerously high dependence on imports. Coupled with climate change, these challenges highlight the urgent need to develop a more sustainable and resilient Hawaiʻi. The overall goal of this project is to apply cutting-edge science tools and approaches to help kia‘i loko, fishpond stewards, enhance the...
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Coastal wetland loss is a serious concern along the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially in Texas and Louisiana where rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise are among the highest in the world, extreme storms are becoming more frequent, and flooding events are intensifying. Because coastal wetlands of the northern Gulf of Mexico provide numerous ecosystem services, including providing critical habitat for species of concern such as the whooping crane and the mottled duck, federal, state, and local agencies have made significant efforts to restore habitats to increase their resilience to sea-level rise and extreme storm events. One way to help wetlands adapt to sea-level rise and extreme flooding events...
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Indigenous Nations are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, due in part to their reliance on healthy ecosystems to provide culturally significant plants that are used for traditional foods, medicines, and materials. Further, many Indigenous communities have an under-resourced capacity for climate adaptation, resulting in significant environmental justice impacts that range from health disparities to heightened disaster risks. There is growing recognition across the globe of the important role of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in climate change resilience and the innovative solutions that lie at the intersection of Indigenous and western knowledge. However, Indigenous knowledge has...
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Many amphibian species are highly susceptible to changes in precipitation timing and volume because of their reliance on intermittently flooded surface water pools, which are primarily filled through snowmelt and precipitation runoff. ​With increasing evapotranspiration (i.e. transfer of water from land to the atmosphere) due to climate change, the timing and availability of water in key amphibian reproductive habitats will likely be altered. This project will assess the future risk to amphibian populations in the Midwest, identifying present and future richness hotspots and those wetland species and populations most at risk of habitat loss due to climate change. The research team will model landscape level changes...
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Cold-water fish species such as trout and salmon are highly valued components of many stream ecosystems in Michigan and the Great Lakes region and are sensitive to rising stream temperatures. For example, the timing of spawning and development rates of these species are affected by stream temperature from late fall through spring. Historically, stream temperature modeling has focused on air temperature and solar radiation as the main drivers of stream temperature, while streams that are fed by groundwater are often viewed as being less affected by climate warming. However, as the climate continues to warm, groundwater temperatures could also rise, thereby contributing to warming stream temperatures and reducing...
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Hala is a much-loved plant by Native Hawaiian cultural practitioners and lauhala weavers, yet native coastal forests of hala are now considered rare in Hawaiʻi. Research on climate resilience indicates that hala has the potential to mitigate storm surges and act as a barrier between salt spray and crops growing near the shoreline. To provide opportunities for natural and cultural resource managers and practitioners on Hawaiʻi Island, more information is needed about hala’s species diversity distribution, role in ecosystems, and ongoing preservation efforts across the island, as well as hala’s historical and current uses as food, medicine, natural fibers and oils. This project will bring together experts within...
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The Gulf of Mexico coast of Louisiana and Texas faces threats from increasingly destructive extreme weather, heat, subsidence, and coastal erosion. Inland areas also face stronger storms, floods, and shifts in land development patterns. Increasing drought and extreme heat in Texas and New Mexico also exacerbate fires and floods. All of these regions are culturally rich, rapidly changing areas where people are working across political boundaries and organizations to protect and adapt people’s lifeways, sites and artifacts, and culturally important species, places and landscapes. This project will produce an action plan that describes ongoing efforts and identifies gaps in research and funding for cultural preservation...
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Stretching almost 1,900 miles from Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico, the Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin (RGB) supplies drinking water for more than 6 million people and irrigation for about 2 million acres of land. The river also supports habitat for many at-risk and endangered species. Because of its size and diverse ecosystem services, the RGB faces complex shared-management challenges that will require coordination among many players. This project will provide opportunities for water managers and users across the basin to collaborate to prevent future conflicts and foster innovative water management in the face of a changing climate. The project leaders will design and convene one tribal RGB forum and will design...
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Controlling the spread and impacts of invasive species is becoming more challenging as climate conditions change. More relevant information is needed to guide timely and localized management actions for these species to preserve cultural resources and ecosystem integrity. Data products are most valuable when they are developed with input from the people who use them for invasive species management decisions. This project will invite decision makers, Tribal representatives, and natural resource managers to share the social and cultural values that influence their trust and use of data. These shared insights will be used by the project team to shape the format, delivery, and communication of a suite of map products...
map background search result map search result map The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function Expanding the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) to the South Central United States Restoring Texas Coastal Wetlands: Decision Support for the Beneficial Use of Dredged Material Mapping Effects of Wetland Change on Amphibians in the Upper Midwest Managing Ecological Transformation to Enhance Carbon Storage and Biodiversity State Wildlife Action Planning in the Midwest Advancing Wildlife Monitoring to Improve Management of Endangered Hawaiian Birds in a Changing Climate Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality and Fish Recruitment in Native Hawaiian Fishponds Lauhala: Weaving Knowledges and Practices with a Climate Resilient and Culturally Significant Plant on Hawaiʻi Island Prioritizing Sites for Habitat Restoration to Enhance Connectivity in the Upper Midwest Groundwater and Stream Temperature Modeling to Assess the Effect of Warming Temperatures on Coldwater Fish Integrating Streamflow and Temperature to Identify Streams with Coldwater Refugia in the Northeast Indigenous-led Restoration and Stewardship of Culturally Significant Plants for Climate Change Adaptation in the Northeast Developing Climate Calendars to Inform Invasive Species Management in the Northeast An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains Developing a Rio Grande-Río Bravo Basin International Research Conference Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2) Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis Rendering High-Resolution Hydro-Climatic Data for Southern California Groundwater and Stream Temperature Modeling to Assess the Effect of Warming Temperatures on Coldwater Fish Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality and Fish Recruitment in Native Hawaiian Fishponds Lauhala: Weaving Knowledges and Practices with a Climate Resilient and Culturally Significant Plant on Hawaiʻi Island Restoring Texas Coastal Wetlands: Decision Support for the Beneficial Use of Dredged Material Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2) Advancing Wildlife Monitoring to Improve Management of Endangered Hawaiian Birds in a Changing Climate Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis Prioritizing Sites for Habitat Restoration to Enhance Connectivity in the Upper Midwest The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function Mapping Effects of Wetland Change on Amphibians in the Upper Midwest Rendering High-Resolution Hydro-Climatic Data for Southern California Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains Integrating Streamflow and Temperature to Identify Streams with Coldwater Refugia in the Northeast State Wildlife Action Planning in the Midwest An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Expanding the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) to the South Central United States Indigenous-led Restoration and Stewardship of Culturally Significant Plants for Climate Change Adaptation in the Northeast Developing Climate Calendars to Inform Invasive Species Management in the Northeast Managing Ecological Transformation to Enhance Carbon Storage and Biodiversity Developing a Rio Grande-Río Bravo Basin International Research Conference