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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
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Climate change influences apex predators in complex ways, due to their important trophic position, capacity for resource plasticity, and sensitivity to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Bald eagles, an ecologically and culturally significant apex predator, congregate seasonally in high densities on salmon spawning rivers across the Pacific Northwest. One of the largest eagle concentrations is in the Skagit River watershed, which connects the montane wilderness of North Cascades National Park to the Puget Sound. Using multiple long-term datasets, we evaluated the relationship between local bald eagle abundance, chum and coho salmon availability and phenology, and the number and timing of flood events in the Skagit...
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There are approximately 2,000 species of migratory birds worldwide, and over 300 of those can be found in North America. Changing climate conditions pose challenges for many migratory birds and their responses to these challenges can depend on their biology. To illustrate these impacts, a board game, called Migration Mismatch, was developed to help elementary school students understand these challenges. Migration Mismatch can help students build their understanding of biological processes and how species, birds in this case, interact with their environment. The game provides an interactive element to learning about adaptations of different bird species to environmental changes and provides a link to birds they may...
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Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators from the North American Breeding Bird Survey data. The indicators were used to test hypotheses regarding changes in range and distribution of breeding birds. The results will support the Northeast Climate Science Center’s Science Agenda, including the science priority: researching ecological vulnerability and species response...
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Climate change is expected to worsen the harmful effects of invasive species on native wildlife. This presents a growing conservation challenge for invasive species managers in the southeastern United States where thousands of invasive species exist. While many of these invasive species currently have relatively small ranges in the southeastern U.S., climate change may allow them to expand into new regions. To effectively plan and respond to the redistribution of invasive species, it is crucial to coordinate existing information and identify future information needs across regional boundaries. The ultimate goal of this project is to improve invasive species management in the face of climate change by establishing...
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This dataset consists of one table with annual counts from population plots of Black-legged Kittiwakes and Common Murres at two seabird nesting colonies on Gull and Chisik Islands in lower Cook Inlet, Alaska.
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Studying the impacts of climate on important ecological responses is a recent priority of monitoring programs throughout the Northeast. Established sampling protocols for data collection, whether to inform estimates of species abundance or occupancy, were designed to evaluate the effects of non-climate stressors (e.g., habitat conversion) and related management actions. Traditional modeling approaches may not accurately identify important relationships between species and climate nor elicit useful information on how these species will be impacted by climate change. Management decisions based on these traditional modeling approaches could have negative and unintended consequences on species and habitat conservation....
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Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and spawning, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes and migratory...
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The populations of many forest birds have declined in recent decades due to loss of habitat area and degradation of habitat quality. Past land management has left the landscape of the heavily forested Appalachian Mountains with too little old growth as well as too few young, regenerating forests. This change in habitat structure has led to the listing of several forest birds as Species of Greatest Conservation Need. Active management is needed to maintain habitat for these species, but climate change may alter the kinds of management that are effective. Climate change is likely to affect forest structure – and bird habitat suitability – because of shifts in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance. While current...
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Quaking aspen populations are declining in much of the West due to altered fire regimes, competition with conifers, herbivory, drought, disease, and insect outbreaks. Aspen stands typically support higher bird biodiversity and abundance than surrounding habitat types, and maintaining current distribution and abundance of several bird species in the northern Great Basin is likely tied to the persistence of aspen in the landscape. This project examined the effects of climate change on aspen and associated bird communities by coupling empirical models of avian-habitat relationships with landscape simulations of vegetation community and disturbance dynamics under various climate change scenarios. Field data on avian...
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A large portion of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean; however, our coasts are also home to many fish, wildlife, and plant species that are important for recreation, tourism, local economies, biodiversity, and healthy coastal ecosystems. Coastal habitats also provide protective ecosystem services to human communities, which are increasingly at risk to storms and sea level rise under future climate change. Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. In a collaborative project between the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative...
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Prairie ecosystems and the grassland birds that rely on them for habitat may be particularly vulnerable to rapid changes in climate. Extensive portions of prairie have already been lost due to agriculture and urbanization, and as a result grassland birds have declined more than any other bird group in the last four decades. Now, climate change could exacerbate existing threats to these birds as temperatures in certain prairie ecosystems are expected to rise and extreme weather events, such as drought, could become more common. The goal of this project was to develop a framework to identify demographic sensitivities and assess the vulnerability of grassland bird species to future climate change. To do so, the researchers...
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This project aims to estimate spatial and temporal trends of waterfowl and waterbirds on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska from 2007 to present. The main approach is motivated by Amundson et al. (2019) using space-time generalized additive models (GAMs, Wood, 2017) but with some improvements to handle observer effects and to associate sampling effort to specific spatial locations along a sampled transect similar to Miller et al. (2013). As part of this effort, a major data quality control process was begun in March 2022 that led to the correction of many data errors and re-formatting of the raw 2007 to 2023 data (available at here) to make it more accessible and usable to outside partners. Because of the...
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Wild turkey is a culturally and economically important game species that has shown dramatic population declines throughout much of the southeastern U.S. A possible explanation for these declines is that the timing of nesting has shifted to earlier in the year while hunting seasons have remained the same. Wild turkeys are the only gamebird in the contiguous United States that are hunted during the reproductive season, so premature harvest of adult male turkeys may disrupt reproductive behaviors and reduce population growth. In addition to hunter harvest, climate change can also impact population growth of wild turkeys. Local and broad-scale regional changes in precipitation and temperature associated with a changing...
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As the climate continues to change, vulnerable wildlife species will need management strategies to help them adapt to these changes. One specific management strategy is based on the idea that in certain locations, climate conditions will remain suitable for species to continue to inhabit into the future. These locations are known as climate “refugia”. In contrast, other locations may become too hot, dry, or wet for species to continue to inhabit. When wildlife managers are considering protecting land for vulnerable species, it can be helpful for them to understand where these climate refugia are located, so that they can be prioritized for conservation. However, most tools used by resource managers to manage these...
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Species that inhabit the arid Southwest are adapted to living in hot, dry environments. Yet the increasing frequency and severity of drought in the region may create conditions that even these hardy species can’t survive. This project examined the impacts of drought in the southwestern U.S. on four of the region’s iconic species: desert bighorn sheep, American pronghorn, scaled quail, and Rio Grande cutthroat trout. Grasping the impacts of drought on fish and wildlife is critical for management planning in the Southwest, as climate models project warmer, drier conditions for the region in the future. Species are known to respond to environmental changes such as drought in different ways. Often, before changes...
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The forests of the Northeastern United States are home to some of the greatest diversity of nesting songbirds in the country. Climate change, shifts in natural disturbance regimes, and invasive species pose threats to forest habitats and bird species in the northeastern United States and represent major challenges to natural resource managers. Although broad adaptation approaches have been suggested for sustaining forested habitats under global change, it is unclear how effective the implementation of these strategies at local and regional scales will be for maintaining habitat conditions for a broad suite of forest-dependent bird species over time. Moreover, given the diversity in forest stakeholders across the...
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This data release is composed of seven datasets regarding colonial seabirds and forage fish at two seabird nesting colonies on Gull and Chisik Islands in lower Cook Inlet, Alaska. These data were collected to detect changes in the breeding population of Black-legged Kittiwakes and Common Murres on two nesting colonies in lower Cook Inlet and to compare those counts to baseline counts from 1995-1999. They are part of an ongoing study in lower Cook Inlet, Alaska to assess the recent status of forage fish and seabirds (2000-2020).
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Spruce-fir forests and associated bird species are recognized as some of the most vulnerable ecosystems and species to the impacts of climate change. This work capitalized on a rich suite of long-term data from these ecosystems to document recent trends in these forests and their associated bird species and developed tools for predicting their future abundance under climate change. Findings from this work indicate declining trends in the abundance of spruce-fir obligate birds, including Bicknell’s Thrush, across the Lake States and New England. In contrast, montane spruce-fir forests in the White and Green Mountains of New England exhibited patterns of increasing abundance, potentially due to their recovery from...
map background search result map search result map Quantifying Vulnerability of Quaking Aspen Woodlands and Associated Bird Communities to Global Climate Change in the Northern Great Basin Assessing the Vulnerability of Grassland Bird Populations to Climate Change Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations The Impacts of Drought on Fish and Wildlife in the Southwestern U.S. Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Migration Mismatch: Bird Migration and Phenological Mismatching Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Science for Forest Habitats and Bird Communities in the Northeast Trophic Implications of a Phenological Paradigm Shift: Bald Eagles and Salmon in a Changing Climate Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S. Assessing the Status and Trends of Seabirds and Forage Fish in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Putting the Sampling Design to Work: Enhancing Species Monitoring Programs in the Face of Climate Change Southeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network (SE RISCC) Arctic Coastal Plain Waterfowl and Waterbird Spatial and Temporal Trends Population Plots at Two Seabird Colonies in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska Common Murre Disturbance Data on Gull Island, Kachemak Bay, Alaska Assessing the Status and Trends of Seabirds and Forage Fish in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska Common Murre Disturbance Data on Gull Island, Kachemak Bay, Alaska Trophic Implications of a Phenological Paradigm Shift: Bald Eagles and Salmon in a Changing Climate Population Plots at Two Seabird Colonies in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Quantifying Vulnerability of Quaking Aspen Woodlands and Associated Bird Communities to Global Climate Change in the Northern Great Basin Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Arctic Coastal Plain Waterfowl and Waterbird Spatial and Temporal Trends Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. Southeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network (SE RISCC) Putting the Sampling Design to Work: Enhancing Species Monitoring Programs in the Face of Climate Change The Impacts of Drought on Fish and Wildlife in the Southwestern U.S. Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Science for Forest Habitats and Bird Communities in the Northeast Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S. Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Assessing the Vulnerability of Grassland Bird Populations to Climate Change Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey Migration Mismatch: Bird Migration and Phenological Mismatching