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Pollen and plant macrofossils from the Keystone Ironbog are used to document changes in species composition and the dynamics of the subalpine forest in western Colorado over the past 8000 years. Modern pollen spectra (particularly pollen influx), plant macrofossils, observations on modern species composition, and quantified densities and mean basal areas of forest trees are used to interpret the paleoecology of the forest. From 8000 to 2600 years ago the fen was surrounded by a subalpine forest. However, unlike the modern subalpine forest where Abies lasiocarpa (Hooker) Nuttall is slightly more abundant than Picea engelmannii (Parry) Engelmann, these Holocene forests had a greater dominance of P. engelmannii, perhaps...
Bioclimatic models are the primary tools for simulating the impact of climate change on species distributions. Part of the uncertainty in the output of these models results from uncertainty in projections of future climates. To account for this, studies often simulate species responses to climates predicted by more than one climate model and/or emission scenario. One area of uncertainty, however, has remained unexplored: internal climate model variability. By running a single climate model multiple times, but each time perturbing the initial state of the model slightly, different but equally valid realizations of climate will be produced. In this paper, we identify how ongoing improvements in climate models can...