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The conversion of grassland to cropland in the Dakotas could imperil wildlife such as nesting waterfowl and contribute to the degradation of water quality in the Mississippi River watershed. However, high crop prices in recent years have contributed to a high rate of grassland to cropland conversion on private lands. In addition to these economic factors, changes in climate could exacerbate the challenge of protecting grasslands, as conditions may become more amenable to row crop production. The goal of this project was to work with grassland conservation managers to better target the use of funds allocated toward incentivizing grassland preservation in the Dakotas. Researchers identified the vulnerability of...
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Changing climate conditions could have significant impacts on wildlife health. Shifts in temperature and precipitation may directly affect the occurrence of disease in fish and wildlife by altering their interactions with pathogens (such as the bacterium that causes Lyme disease), helping vectors like mosquitoes and ticks expand their range, or speeding up the time it takes for a parasite to develop from an egg to an adult. Climate change can also indirectly affect the health of fish and wildlife as their habitats change. For example, reduced food availability could lead to overcrowding and increased disease transmission, or warmer temperatures might increase stress levels, weakening immune systems and making animals...
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Habitat fragmentation occurs when loss of habitat (e.g. to land use changes or human development) divides large or connected habitat areas into smaller, more isolated areas. This process is recognized as one of the most pressing conservation issues in the Southeastern U.S. Habitat loss and fragmentation reduces the amount of suitable habitat available to wildlife species, divides wildlife populations and reduces genetic diversity, and interrupts important migration patterns; and climate change is likely to disrupt habitat areas even more. Maintaining connectivity between habitats and wildlife populations will be a key management strategy for conserving biodiversity in the region into the future. Previous work by...
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Beaches and marshes provide critical habitat for many species of concern, including the piping plover, a shorebird which is endangered in parts of its range and threatened in others. These coastal environments also support tourism and recreation, and provide important services such as protecting infrastructure from wave inundation. Extreme storms and sea-level rise can alter these habitats, with implications for the species and communities that rely on them. This project seeks to test the utility of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) for mapping and monitoring changes in coastal ecosystems. UAS provide a low-cost, low-risk means of acquiring high-resolution data when compared to on-the-ground fieldwork or traditional...
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In the Pacific Northwest, temperatures are projected to increase 2-15°F by 2100. Winters are expected to become wetter and summers could become drier. Snowpack will likely decrease substantially, and snowmelt runoff may occur earlier in the year. Wildfires are projected to become more frequent and severe, and forest types are expected to change from maritime evergreen to subtropical mixed-woodlands. Because the impacts of climate change vary from place to place, regionally-specific climate projections are critical to help farmers, foresters, city planners, public utility providers, and fish and wildlife managers plan for how to best manage resources. However, the models that are used to project changes in climate...
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In coastal Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and extreme weather events threaten human communities, critical infrastructure, valuable natural resources, and hunting and fishing livelihoods. Identifying how changing climate conditions impact Alaska’s coastal ecosystems, and how these changes may be tied to the ability of coastal communities to adapt to changing conditions, has been identified as a priority question in the state. In order to identify knowledge gaps and resource needs related to adaptation and resilience in coastal Alaska, the Alaska Climate Science Center partnered with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, and others in 2016 to hold a series of workshops in...
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Downed wood on the forest floor does more than provide habitat for amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. These decomposing habitat structures modify the temperature and moisture conditions in the forest itself. Inside and around downed wood, local climate conditions, or microclimates, provide wildlife with stable habitats that allow for persistence during and after wildfires. Cooler, wetter microclimates buffer the effects of wildfire in Oregon’s forests, making microclimate an important component of forest management. Despite the significance of downed wood to forest ecosystem function, forest management practices require only two downed logs to be retained for every acre harvested. To better inform forest management...
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Global climate models are a key source of climate information and produce large amounts of spatially explicit data for various physical parameters. However, these projections have substantial uncertainties associated with them, and the datasets themselves can be difficult to work with. The project team created the first version (cst 0.1.0) of the Climate Futures Toolbox, an open source workflow in R that allows users to access downscaled climate projections data, clip data by spatial boundaries (shapefile), save the output, and generate summary tables and plots. A detailed R vignette guides users to easily generate derived variables in order to answer specific questions about their region of interest (e.g. how will...
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Ponderosa pine forests are declining and their future persistence is uncertain. Most research on forest declines has focused on the effects of disturbances including wildfire, insect outbreaks, and severe drought on mortality of mature trees. Yet, recent research suggests that ponderosa pine declines may be even more severe as these ecosystems fail to regenerate naturally (i.e. grow from seed to adulthood) in a climate that is becoming increasingly less favorable for juvenile tree survival. For land managers to accurately assess and combat the risk of failed regeneration, it is critical to better understand the many factors supporting regeneration across the diverse habitats where these ecosystems are located. ...
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Managing species and habitat in a changing climate requires locally specific information about expected changes in the physical environment, key stressors and related ecological changes. Federal investments have supported the development of a significant scientific knowledge base detailing potential future conditions for many Northwest ecosystem types and geographies. Yet scientists, managers and other decision makers continue to be challenged by the difficulty of efficiently assessing the current state of understanding regarding both impacts and pathways for adaptation. For example, while the most recent Washington and Oregon State Wildlife Action Plans included detailed consideration of climate change-related...
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As climate change is impacting water resources and aquatic ecosystems, there is a great need for natural resource managers to assess adaptation measures in a holistic manner. This can be done by integrating model predictions of climate, hydrology, and ecosystems with observational data to better refine estimates of conditions on-the-ground; however, it can be challenging to combine these different data types due to differences in the scale or accuracy of each model. Scientific machine learning a type of artificial intelligence that continues to learn as more data is available, could provide a novel and flexible way of combining observations and models. This project aims to develop a data-driven modeling framework...
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A rapidly changing climate during this century poses a high risk for impacts to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods. A better understanding of how climate change might alter temperature, precipitation, heat stress, water availability and other extreme weather metrics in the coming century would be useful to natural resource managers at the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service in the North Central region. Particularly, when they prepare to conduct Species Status Assessments to better evaluate risk to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods resulting from a changing climate. Scientists have traditionally gone through the time intensive process of extracting and analyzing different climate datasets...
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Climate change is impacting the land and resources that Alaska Native peoples rely on for food security, resource management, and cultural continuity. In Southeast Alaska, communities face increased weather variability due to climate change, which impacts subsistence food resources in streams and coastal ocean waters. Alaska Native communities are asking for co-production models of scientific research that involve authentic partnerships and provide direct and tangible solutions to pressing climate adaptation challenges. Co-production of knowledge is broadly recognized as a valuable approach to climate research, but there is a lack of information about how to successfully implement and evaluate the co-production...
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Native American tribes are interested in managing their homelands for future generations, using both Indigenous and western science to make decisions in culturally appropriate ways. In particular, there is interest in strategic grazing management as a natural climate solution to strengthen the resilience of grasslands to a changing climate. This includes the restoration of free-ranging bison as well as the management of cattle (and domestic bison) in ways that approximate wild bison grazing behavior, to capture similar ecological and climate change benefits. Despite the growing interest in grazing management as a tool for grassland resilience and soil health, there has not been a systematic synthesis that directly...
The National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) work with natural and cultural resource managers to gather the scientific information and build the tools needed to help fish, wildlife and ecosystems adapt to the impacts of climate change. The National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC) is the managing entity for the nine regional CASCs and is located at the U.S. Geological Survey in Reston, Virginia. Both the NCASC and regional CASCs each fund a portfolio of science projects on an annual basis. To learn more about the NCASC, please visit: www.usgs.gov/casc/national
Tags: CASC, CSC
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Fire is a natural and necessary component of the South Central Plains ecosystem. However, fire suppression and more frequent droughts in the region have resulted in a build-up of dry fuels loads such as dead wood, resulting in fires that burn hotter and impact the landscape more severely. Uncontrolled wildfires have cost the region several billion dollars over the past five years. Further, fire suppression has resulted in substantial losses in native plant biodiversity and wildlife habitat, which also has costly implications. In Oklahoma alone, it’s estimated that $157 million will be required to restore rangelands to their native conditions. Of further concern is the fact that projected changes in climate indicate...
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The South Central U.S. is home to diverse climates and ecosystems, strong agricultural and energy sectors, and fast-growing urban areas. All share a critical need for water, which is becoming an increasingly scarce resource across the region as aquifers are overdrawn and populations grow. Understanding what brings rain to this region, and how the timing and amount of precipitation may be affected by climate change, is essential for effective water planning and management, yet community planners and managers have indicated that currently available precipitation forecasts for the South Central are insufficient, due largely to the high levels of uncertainty associated with precipitation projections for the region....
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The role of soil temperature in agricultural health is largely understudied, but recent research suggests that it can affect soil health in important ways. Researchers at Texas Tech University found that lower daily temperature ranges of soil in the Southern High Plains were associated with higher levels of soil microbes (which help make critical nutrients available for plants) and decreased nitrogen availability. These results suggest that climate variability may have implications for soil health and microbial content. In the South Central U.S., a more developed understanding of how management practices, climate variability, and soil health interact is essential for sound agricultural decision-making. This project...
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The Edwards Aquifer in south-central Texas provides water resources to more than 2 million people and is home to eight federally listed threatened and endangered species that are dependent on spring flow from the aquifer for survival. Recent results from global climate models indicate that over the next several decades increases in annual average temperatures and evapotranspiration are likely in this semi-arid region. Decision makers and water resource planners need to have a robust scientific understanding of the impacts of future climate conditions on the Edwards Aquifer system to assess future management strategies needed to maintain water availability and ensure adequate spring flow for protected species....
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Coastal wetlands provide a suite of valuable benefits to people and wildlife, including important habitat, improved water quality, reduced flooding impacts, and protected coastlines. However, in the 21st century accelerated sea-level rise and coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. The future of coastal wetlands is uncertain, challenging coastal environmental managers to develop conservation strategies that will increase the resilience of these valuable ecosystems to change and preserve the benefits they provide. One strategy for preparing for the effects of sea-level rise is to ensure that there is space available for coastal wetlands to adapt by migration. In a...
map background search result map search result map Projecting Future Climate, Vegetation, and Hydrology in the Pacific Northwest Informing the Identification of Economically Effective Targets for Grassland Conservation in the Dakotas Quantifying Future Precipitation in the South Central U.S. for Water Resources Planning Helping Fire Professionals Understand and Manage Changing Fire Regimes Mapping Coastal Change Using Unmanned Aerial Systems: A Pilot Study Enhancing the Capacity of Coastal Wetlands to Adapt to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Development Identifying Best Agricultural Management Practices for Maintaining Soil Health and Sustainability Under Changing Climate Conditions Turning the Science of Connectivity into Action: Finding Model Consistency and Identifying Priority Habitats for Conservation Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Community Outreach and Engagement Synthesizing Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Health and Identifying Adaptation Strategies Open-Source and Open-Workflow Climate Futures Toolbox for Adaptation Planning Promoting Climate Resilience and Soil Health in Northern Rockies Grasslands Through Bison and Cattle Grazing Management: Weaving Together Indigenous and Western Science State of Knowledge Syntheses: Comprehensive, User-Friendly Science Compilations, Data Summaries and Adaptation Guides to Support Management of Northwest Species and Habitat in a Changing Climate Exploring Large Downed Wood as Post-Fire Refugia for Terrestrial Salamanders in Pacific Northwest Forests Can Management Actions Support Forest Regeneration Across the Diverse Landscapes and Climate Change Futures of the Southwestern U.S.? Assessing Future Climate Impacts on Threatened and Endangered Groundwater Dependent Species in the Edwards Aquifer Region Using a Novel Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Framework Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools Co-producing Climate Research and Adaptation through Partnerships with Alaska Native Communities Future of Aquatic Flows: A Data-driven Framework to Inform Projections of Aquatic Flows in the Northeast Identifying Best Agricultural Management Practices for Maintaining Soil Health and Sustainability Under Changing Climate Conditions Mapping Coastal Change Using Unmanned Aerial Systems: A Pilot Study Exploring Large Downed Wood as Post-Fire Refugia for Terrestrial Salamanders in Pacific Northwest Forests Future of Aquatic Flows: A Data-driven Framework to Inform Projections of Aquatic Flows in the Northeast Assessing Future Climate Impacts on Threatened and Endangered Groundwater Dependent Species in the Edwards Aquifer Region Using a Novel Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Framework Promoting Climate Resilience and Soil Health in Northern Rockies Grasslands Through Bison and Cattle Grazing Management: Weaving Together Indigenous and Western Science Informing the Identification of Economically Effective Targets for Grassland Conservation in the Dakotas Co-producing Climate Research and Adaptation through Partnerships with Alaska Native Communities State of Knowledge Syntheses: Comprehensive, User-Friendly Science Compilations, Data Summaries and Adaptation Guides to Support Management of Northwest Species and Habitat in a Changing Climate Helping Fire Professionals Understand and Manage Changing Fire Regimes Turning the Science of Connectivity into Action: Finding Model Consistency and Identifying Priority Habitats for Conservation Quantifying Future Precipitation in the South Central U.S. for Water Resources Planning Can Management Actions Support Forest Regeneration Across the Diverse Landscapes and Climate Change Futures of the Southwestern U.S.? Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools Enhancing the Capacity of Coastal Wetlands to Adapt to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Development Projecting Future Climate, Vegetation, and Hydrology in the Pacific Northwest Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Community Outreach and Engagement Open-Source and Open-Workflow Climate Futures Toolbox for Adaptation Planning Synthesizing Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Health and Identifying Adaptation Strategies