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Monthly temperature and precipitation data from 41 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were compared to observations for the 20th century, with a focus on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and surrounding region. A suite of statistics, or metrics, was calculated, including correlation and variance of mean seasonal spatial patterns, amplitude of seasonal cycle, diurnal temperature range, annual- to decadal-scale variance, long-term persistence, and regional teleconnections to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Performance, or credibility, was assessed based on the GCMs' abilities to reproduce the observed metrics. GCMs were ranked in their credibility using two...
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These data were compiled using a new multivariate matching algorithm that transfers simulated soil moisture conditions (Bradford et al. 2020) from an original 10-km resolution to a 30-arcsec spatial resolution. Also, these data are a supplement to a previously published journal article (Bradford et al., 2020) and USGS data release (Bradford and Schlaepfer, 2020). The objectives of our study were to (1) characterize geographic patterns in ecological drought under historical climate, (2) quantify the direction and magnitude of projected responses in ecological drought under climate change, (3) identify areas and drought metrics with projected changes that are robust across climate models for a representative set of...
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NOTICE: Given the large size of the MACAv2METDATA dataset, and a known issue with the data server being used to host it, initial load times may take a very long time and / or time out. Subsequent requests should be faster due to caching, but the cache clears periodically and the dataset must be rescanned prior to access. We are working on a fix for this issue. In the mean time, please use the dataset with care and make sureyou've reviewed the GDP scalability guidelines. https://my.usgs.gov/confluence/display/GeoDataPortal/Geo+Data+Portal+Scalability+Guidelines This archive contains daily downscaled meteorological and hydrological projections for the Conterminous United States at 1/24-deg resolution utilizing the...
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Efforts to model and predict long-term variations in climate-based on scientific understanding of climatological processes have grown rapidly in their sophistication to the point that models can be used to develop reasonable expectations of regional climate change. This is important because our ability to assess the potential consequences of a changing climate for particular ecosystems or regions depends on having realistic expectations about the kinds and severity of change to which a region may be exposed.The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is a collaborative climate modeling research effort coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This is the most recent phase...
Land managers in the Great Basin are working to maintain or restore sagebrush ecosystems as climate change exacerbates existing threats. Web applications delivering climate change and climate impacts information have the potential to assist their efforts. Although many web applications containing climate information currently exist, few have been co-produced with land managers or have incorporated information specifically focused on land managers’ needs. Through surveys and interviews, we gathered detailed feedback from federal, state, and tribal sagebrush land managers in the Great Basin on climate information web applications targeting land management. We found that a) managers are searching for weather and climate...
Recently, climate projections from the 5th phase of The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have become available. A key change from CMIP3 to CMIP5 is the change in scenarios of projected greenhouse gas concentrations during the 21st century. Other notable advancements from CMIP3 to CMIP5 include finer spatial resolution, the prescription of land use change (past and future), and, for some global climate models, simulations of the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry. CMIP5 model runs indicate a warmer future in the Pacific Northwest than those from CMIP3, while both modeling experiments suggest a slightly wetter future.
Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) has been developing web applications to centralize and serve credible and usable information that allows natural resource managers, as well as the general public, to better understand the challenges posed by on-going environmental change. In particular CBI has designed a series of climate consoles that provide natural resource managers the most recent 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP5) climate projections, landscape intactness, and soil sensitivity for a series of reporting units over the western United States. The publically available web sites were refined based on feedback from a variety of users. In this paper, we describe each of the tools developed as open-source...
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The Colorado River is the dominant water source for the southwestern United States, crossing through seven states before reaching Mexico. The river supplies water to approximately 36 million people, irrigates nearly six million acres of farmland within and beyond the basin, and contributes an estimated 26 billion dollars each year to the region’s recreational economy. Yet the Colorado River’s water supply is already fully allocated, meaning that the economic and environmental health of the region is closely tied to the river’s streamflow. Climate projections for the Southwest show a future marked by chronic drought and substantial reductions in streamflow. The region has already been impacted by climate change,...
The global increases in surface air temperature are the most widespread and direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. However, while 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in the Caribbean, the low variability and high average temperatures suggest that impacts on ecosystems and water resources are more likely through changes to the availability, timing, and pattern of moisture. The lack of local-scale climate model information that can resolve the complex topography and small scale climate features hinders the development of robust adaptation strategies. The goal of this project was to develop a suite of local-scale climate projections using dynamic downscaling to aid the development of adaptation...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00196.1): In this study (Part I), the mid-twenty-first-century surface air temperature increase in the entire CMIP5 ensemble is downscaled to very high resolution (2 km) over the Los Angeles region, using a new hybrid dynamical–statistical technique. This technique combines the ability of dynamical downscaling to capture finescale dynamics with the computational savings of a statistical model to downscale multiple GCMs. First, dynamical downscaling is applied to five GCMs. Guided by an understanding of the underlying local dynamics, a simple statistical model is built relating the GCM input and the dynamically downscaled output. This statistical...
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In the expectation that global climate will change steadily in the coming decades, this research project had the goal to obtain a more detailed view of the climatic changes that Hawai’i could experience by the mid and late 21st century. Given the importance of rainfall for Hawaiian ecosystems and freshwater reserves, this project investigated past seasonal rainfall pattern and developed a statistical model to estimate future rainfall changes for the major islands. As a result of this research, high-resolution maps and data are now available that researchers can use to study potential impacts on endangered species, or use the rainfall changes as input in decision-support tools.This data product provides data files...
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Efforts to model and predict long-term variations in climate—based on scientific understanding of climatological processes—have grown rapidly in their sophistication to the point that models can be used to develop reasonable expectations of regional climate change. This is important because our ability to assess the potential consequences of a changing climate for particular ecosystems or regions depends on having realistic expectations about the kinds and severity of change to which a region may be exposed.The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is a collaborative climate modeling research effort coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This is the most recent phase...
We have applied a monthly water balance model to the NASA NEX-DCP30 dataset, which provides high resolution (30-arcsecond, ~800 m) gridded projections of temperature and precipitation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our water balance model simulates hydroclimate variables such as surface runoff, snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. The projections span the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from 1950-2099 using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. A historical PRISM simulation is included to evaluate the water balance model relative to observations. Access: OPENDAP: /thredds/dodsC/mwbm_data/cmip5_mwbm_historical.ncml WMS: /thredds/wms/mwbm_data/cmip5_mwbm_historical.ncml...
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Efforts to model and predict long-term variations in climate-based on scientific understanding of climatological processes have grown rapidly in their sophistication to the point that models can be used to develop reasonable expectations of regional climate change. This is important because our ability to assess the potential consequences of a changing climate for particular ecosystems or regions depends on having realistic expectations about the kinds and severity of change to which a region may be exposed.The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is a collaborative climate modeling research effort coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This is the most recent phase...
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This collection contains three statistically downscaled time series (datasets) for the Red River Basin (South Central U.S.), and one dataset used as historical observations. In particular, three different Global Climate Models (MPI-ESM-LR, CCSM4 and MIROC5) were downscaled using three different quantile mapping methods (CDFt, EDQM and BCQM). We do not recommend the use of the BCQM method, as the CDFt method is considered an improvement of it. The datasets created using the BCQM method are published as a demonstration of the risks of using flawed methods. The variables of interest are: daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation. The spatial resolution of the datasets in the collection is 1/10th...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015003865): Climate change adaptation and mitigation require understanding of vegetation response to climate change. Using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) we simulate vegetation for the Northwest United States using results from 20 different Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models downscaled using the MACA algorithm. Results were generated for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 under vegetation modeling scenarios with and without fire suppression for a total of 80 model runs for future projections. For analysis, results were aggregated by three subregions: the Western Northwest (WNW),...
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Efforts to model and predict long-term variations in climate-based on scientific understanding of climatological processes have grown rapidly in their sophistication to the point that models can be used to develop reasonable expectations of regional climate change. This is important because our ability to assess the potential consequences of a changing climate for particular ecosystems or regions depends on having realistic expectations about the kinds and severity of change to which a region may be exposed.The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is a collaborative climate modeling research effort coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This is the most recent phase...
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These GeoTIFF data were compiled to investigate how a new multivariate matching algorithm transfers simulated plant functional biomass of big sagebrush plant communities from 200 sites to a gridded product with 30-arcsec spatial resolution. Objectives of our study were to (1) describe how climate change will alter the biomass and composition of key plant functional types; (2) quantify the impacts of climate change on future functional type biomass and composition along climatic gradients; (3) identify if and which geographic locations will be relatively unaffected by climate change while others experience large effects; and (4) determine if there is consistency in climate change impacts on plant communities among...
Tags: 30-arcsecond spatial resolution, Arizona, Botany, C3 perennial grasses, C4 perennial grasses, All tags...
We assess the ability of Global Climate Models participating in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) to simulate observed annual precipitation cycles over the Caribbean. Compared to weather station records and gridded observations, we find that both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models can be grouped into three categories: (1) models that correctly simulate a bimodal distribution with two rainfall maxima in May–June and September–October, punctuated by a mid-summer drought (MSD) in July–August; (2) models that reproduce the MSD and the second precipitation maxima only; and (3) models that simulate only one precipitation maxima, beginning in early summer. These categories appear related...
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The California Basin Characterization Model (CA-BCM 2014) dataset provides historical and projected climate and hydrologic surfaces for the region that encompasses the state of California and all the streams that flow into it (California hydrologic region ). The CA-BCM 2014 applies a monthly regional water-balance model to simulate hydrologic responses to climate at the spatial resolution of a 270-m grid. The model has been calibrated using a total of 159 relatively unimpaired watersheds for the California region. The historical data is based on 800m PRISM data spatially downscaled to 270 m using the gradient-inverse distance squared approach (GIDS), and the projected climate surfaces include five CMIP-3 (GFDL,...
map background search result map search result map Projecting Future Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin California Basin Characterization Model Downscaled Climate and Hydrology Datasets for "Climate Change Research in Support of Hawaiian Ecosystem Management: An Integrated Approach" CMIP5: Future Average Annual Temperature (2031-2060) Statistically downscaled estimates of precipitation and temperature for the Red River basin (South Central U.S.A) Downscaled Future Projections CMIP5 Future Average Annual Precipitation Normal 2031-2060 CMIP5 Future Average Annual Temperature 2031-2060 CMIP5 Projected Change in Average Annual Temperature 2031-2060 High-resolution maps of big sagebrush plant community biomass using multivariate matching algorithms Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) CMIP5 Statistically Downscaled Data for Coterminous USA High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century ecological drought metrics using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada Datasets for "Climate Change Research in Support of Hawaiian Ecosystem Management: An Integrated Approach" Projecting Future Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin CMIP5: Future Average Annual Temperature (2031-2060) California Basin Characterization Model Downscaled Climate and Hydrology CMIP5 Future Average Annual Precipitation Normal 2031-2060 CMIP5 Future Average Annual Temperature 2031-2060 CMIP5 Projected Change in Average Annual Temperature 2031-2060 Statistically downscaled estimates of precipitation and temperature for the Red River basin (South Central U.S.A) Downscaled Future Projections High-resolution maps of big sagebrush plant community biomass using multivariate matching algorithms High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century ecological drought metrics using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) CMIP5 Statistically Downscaled Data for Coterminous USA