Filters: Tags: Climate Projections (X) > Types: Citation (X)
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Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1598-0): Empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) methods seek to refine global climate model (GCM) outputs via processes that glean information from a combination of observations and GCM simulations. They aim to create value-added climate projections by reducing biases and adding finer spatial detail. Analysis techniques, such as cross-validation, allow assessments of how well ESD methods meet these goals during observational periods. However, the extent to which an ESD method’s skill might differ when applied to future climate projections cannot be assessed readily in the same manner. Here we present a “perfect model” experimental design that quantifies...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Climate Projections,
Downscaling,
South Central CASC
This fact sheet provides highlights from a comprehensive U.S. Geological Survey report that evaluates six widely used downscaled climate projections covering the southeastern United States and recommends best practices for use of downscaled datasets for ecological modeling and decision-making.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Climate Projections,
Downscaling,
Science Tools For Managers,
Southeast CASC,
State of the Science
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: bioclimatic-envelope modeling,
parthenogenetic whiptails,
Birds,
Mammals,
Other Wildlife,
This final report is for the Pacific Islands-funded project "21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa". We provide the projected fine-resolution future climate changes over Guam and American Samoa by the late 21st century (2080-2099) with both a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and a medium emission scenario (RCP4.5). We show that the surface air temperature (SAT) over Guam is likely to increase by 1.5 – 2.0 °C for RCP4.5 and by 3.0 – 3.5 °C for RCP8.5, while the projected SAT increases over American Samoa are slightly smaller. The projected annual mean future rainfall changes for Guam are not statistically significant in any location in either the RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenarios....
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