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Ecological processes of low-productivity ecosystems have long been considered to be driven by abiotic controls with biotic interactions playing an insignificant role. However, existing studies present conflicting evidence concerning the roles of these factors, in part due to the short temporal extent of most data sets and inability to test indirect effects of environmental variables modulated by biotic interactions. Using structural equation modeling to analyze 65 years of perennial vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert, we found that precipitation had a stronger positive effect on recruitment beneath existing canopies than in open microsites due to reduced evaporation rates. Variation in perennial canopy cover...
The reintroduction of gray wolves to Yellowstone National Park (YNP) provides a natural experiment regarding the effects of top predators on scavenger species. Fieldwork on the Northern Range of Yellowstone indicates that wolves facilitate carrion acquisition by scavengers, but it is unclear whether this represents a transient or permanent effect of wolf reintroduction. Here we present a wolf-elk model with human elk harvest and use it to investigate the long-term consequences of predator?prey dynamics and hunting on resource flow to scavengers. Our model shows that while wolves reduce the total amount of carrion, they stabilize carrion abundance by reducing temporal variation in the quantity of carrion and extending...
Often landmark conservation decisions are made despite an incomplete knowledge of system behavior and inexact predictions of how complex ecosystems will respond to management actions. For example, predicting the feasibility and likely effects of restoring top-level carnivores such as the gray wolf (Canis lupus) to North American wilderness areas is hampered by incomplete knowledge of the predator-prey system processes and properties. In such cases, global sensitivity measures, such as Sobol? indices, allow one to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on model predictions. Sobol? indices are calculated by decomposing the variance in model predictions (due to parameter uncertainty) into main effects of model...
Ecological processes of low-productivity ecosystems have long been considered to be driven by abiotic controls with biotic interactions playing an insignificant role. However, existing studies present conflicting evidence concerning the roles of these factors, in part due to the short temporal extent of most data sets and inability to test indirect effects of environmental variables modulated by biotic interactions. Using structural equation modeling to analyze 65 years of perennial vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert, we found that precipitation had a stronger positive effect on recruitment beneath existing canopies than in open microsites due to reduced evaporation rates. Variation in perennial canopy cover...
Riparian cottonwood (Populus deltoides) forests form the one of the most extensive deciduous forest ecosystems in arid regions of the western United States. However, cottonwood populations are threatened by flow alteration and channel degradation caused by dams, water diversions, and groundwater pumping. We developed a stochastic, density-dependent, population model to (1) consolidate information concerning cottonwood population dynamics in a conceptual and analytical framework, (2) determine whether complex forest stand dynamics can be predicted from basic cottonwood vital rates and river hydrology, and (3) aid in planning prescribed floods by projecting how altered flow regimes might affect populations. The model...