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Hourly hydrometeorological data was collected over the 30-year period from 1984-2014 in Upper Sheep Creek, within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho, USA. These data were used to calibrate the one-dimensional Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model. These data and the SHAW calibration have previously been described in multiple publications, particularly Chauvin et al 2011 and Flerchinger et al 2016. In the dataset presented here, climate scenarios have been constructed, applied to the historic record, simulated in the SHAW model, and hydrologic results have been analyzed. These data include the following: (1) uscData. These are the historical data described above, prepared for input into the SHAW...
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The files in the sub-folder "1. Juvenile coho salmon abundance and survival" consist of fish survey data and the associated analysis. The file "02_Fish survey data_all events_2019-11-27.csv" contains the actual fish survey data that was collected in Mason Creek, tributary of East Fork Lewis River, SW Washington, during summer of 2017. The protocol for the fish surveys are outline in the file "Fish Rescue Field Protocol_2017_FINAL VERSION_2017-06-01.pdf". The abundance and survival analysis can be found in the file "Juvenile MR abundance_Coho_02Contraints_2019-12-02.R". This file should be loaded through the .Rproj file "Fish Abundance.Rproj". There are many files needed to run the analysis that consist of summaries...
To improve understanding of streamflow permanence in the Pacific Northwest, we have developed a method for predicting the annual probability of year-round streamflow at 30-meter intervals. The approach involves collecting and processing nearly 24,000 streamflow observations into “wet” or “dry” values, and synchronizing them with 291 predictor datasets that represent physical (one-time values) and climatic (monthly or annual values) conditions associated with the upstream area for each 30-meter point along streams in the Pacific Northwest. Both of these datasets are among the first of their kind and shed light on the scientific opportunities that ‘Big Data’ techniques allow for. The predictive models developed from...
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Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, and will likely trigger significant and permanent changes in both ecological and human communities. Such transformations are already occurring in the Arctic region of Alaska, where temperatures are warming at twice the global average and causing some ecosystems to transition to new states. Arctic warming has led to coastal erosion that has forced human communities to relocate and a loss of sea ice that has forced marine mammals, such as polar bears and walrus, to adapt to a more terrestrial mode of living. Meanwhile, in the Great Plains of the U.S., past interactions between land and water use during the Dust Bowl and recent high rates of depletion of the Ogallala...
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In the Northwest U.S., warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will likely result in significantly altered snowpack, stream flows, and water availability. Along with these changes comes an increased risk of “ecological drought”, or periods of water stress that impact ecosystems and the services they provide –which can ultimately impact human communities. More frequent and severe ecological droughts have the potential to push ecosystems beyond their ability to recover, resulting in complete changes in ecosystem composition and function. Ecological drought will only worsen existing management challenges, such as competition for water resources, habitat degradation, invasive species, and more frequent...
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The USGS Water Mission Area (WMA) - Ecosystems Mission Area (EMA) EcoDrought project is comprised of interdisciplinary teams in five pilot regions across the country. The over-arching project goal is to measure streamflow in headwater streams and to relate flow variation to stream fish population dynamics. In the northeast, the New England Water Science Center (NewEngWSC) partnered with the fish ecology group at the S.O. Conte Anadromous Fish Research Lab (Conte), a part of the EMA’s Eastern Ecological Science Center. The Conte fish ecology team has been collecting ecological and stream water temperature data in the West Brook watershed located in Whately, Massachusetts, since 1997, where they developed novel methods...
The Wind River Indian Reservation (WRIR) in west-central Wyoming is home to the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho tribes, who reside near and depend on water from the streams that feed into Wind River. In recent years, however, the region has experienced frequent severe droughts, which have affected tribal livelihoods and cultural activities. Scientists with the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCCASC) at Colorado State University, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and several other university and agency partners in the region worked in close partnership with tribal water managers to assess how drought affects the reservation, which included...
Abstract (from AMS100): Between water years 2012 and 2017, the Truckee–Carson river system in the western United States experienced both historic-low and record-high Sierra Nevada snowpack, anomalously warm temperatures, and winter and spring flooding. As part of an ongoing collaborative modeling research program in the river system, researchers conduct annual interviews with key local water managers to characterize local climate adaptation strategies and implementation barriers, and identify science information needs to prioritize ongoing research activities. This article presents new findings from a third wave of interviews conducted with the same water managers following the historic 2017 wet year. Comparison...
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Forests across the southwestern U.S. are crucial components of recreation and play an important role in state and local economies. Healthy forests also provide needed habitat for many wildlife species and contribute many other important services to our planet. “Hotter droughts” (otherwise normal droughts whose effects on ecosystems are exacerbated by higher temperatures) are an emerging climate change threat to forests with some of their earliest and strongest appearances happening in the Southwest. The Leaf to Landscape project uses California’s unusually hot drought as a potential preview of the future, allowing us to collect information that will help guide forest management in the face of a warming climate....
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The Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and their managing organization, the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center at the U.S. Geological Survey, have chosen the emerging climate science field of Ecological Drought as a research focus area. This workshop is part of a series of meetings at each of the nation’s eight CSCs aimed at collating our existing knowledge of the ecological impacts, resistance, and recovery from drought. The eight CSCs provide a fantastic opportunity to compare the ecological effects of drought, related research activities, and management options at different regions, spatial scales, and biomes of drought, related research activities, and management options...
Streams are classified as perennial (flowing uninterrupted, year-round) or intermittent (flowing part of the year) or ephemeral (flowing only during rainfall events). The classifications of “streamflow permanence” were primarily established in the middle 20th century and are often outdated and inaccurate today if they were not adjusted for changes in land use, wildfires, or climate. Understanding where streams are perennial is important for a variety of reasons. For example, perennial streams receive special regulatory protections under a variety of statutes, and provide important habitat for fish, wildlife, and other species. To predict the likelihood that streams are perennial, we compiled nearly 25,000 observations...
Abstract (from RMetS): Over the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB), temperatures in widely used gridded data products do not warm as much as mean temperatures from a stable set of U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations, located at generally lower elevations, in most months of the year. This is contrary to expectations of elevation‐dependent warming, which suggests that warming increases with elevation. These findings could reflect (a) a genuine absence of elevation‐dependent warming in the region, (b) systematic non‐climatic influences on either the USHCN stations or high‐elevation stations, including known inhomogeneities related to changes in the time of observation and instrumentation, or (c) suppression...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067613/full): This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture...
Abstract (from AMS): The upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) is one of the primary sources of water for the western United States, and increasing temperatures likely will elevate the risk of reduced water supply in the basin. Although variability in water-year precipitation explains more of the variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than water-year UCRB temperature, since the late 1980s, increases in temperature in the UCRB have caused a substantial reduction in UCRB runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation). These reductions in flow because of increasing temperatures are the largest documented temperature-related reductions since record keeping began. Increases in UCRB temperature over the past...
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Water management in the middle portion of the Rio Grande Basin (between Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico and Presidio, Texas) is challenging because water demand has continued to increase over time despite limited river water and dropping groundwater levels. While urban and agricultural users can cope with frequent droughts by using a combination of river water and pumping groundwater, little to no water reaches living river ecosystems in this region. Improving this situation requires a good understanding of river water and groundwater availability, now and in the future, as well as advantages and disadvantages of water management options to sustain these ecosystems. In particular, there is a need to determine...
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In recent decades the encroachment of woody mangrove species into herbaceous marshes has been documented along the U.S. northern Gulf of Mexico coast. These species shifts have been attributed primarily to rising sea levels and warming winter temperatures, but the role of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and water availability may become more prominent drivers of species interactions under future climate conditions. In this greenhouse study we examined the effects of CO2 concentration (ambient, elevated) and water regime (drought, saturated, flooded) on early growth of the mangrove species Avicennia germinans and Spartina alterniflora, a herbaceous grass.
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California’s Central Valley is a nexus for water resources in the state, draining the Sacramento and San Joaquin River watersheds. Urban centers, agricultural operations, and the environment all compete for limited water, and demand is expected to only increase as the population grows and agriculture intensifies. At the same time, the water supply is projected to decrease as temperatures rise, precipitation patterns change, and the frequency of extreme droughts increases. The Central Valley also provides critical wetland habitats to migratory waterbirds, and wetland managers require information on how to best use water resources to support wildlife objectives, particularly during drought. This project seeks to...
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The climate of the North Central U.S. is driven by a combination of factors, including atmospheric circulation patterns, the region’s complex topography which extends from the High Rockies to the Great Plains, and variations in hydrology. Together, these factors determine the sustainability of the region’s ecosystems and the services that they provide communities. In order to understand the vulnerability of the region’s ecosystems to change, it is necessary to have reliable projections of future climate conditions. To address this need, researchers first examined past and present variations in climate and assessed the ability of climate models to effectively project future climate conditions for the region. Second,...
map background search result map search result map Understanding Extreme Climate Events in the North Central U.S. The Impact of Drought on Waterbirds and Their Wetland Habitats in California’s Central Valley Alaska EcoDrought Synthesis Workshop Newsletter, September 2015 Leaf to Landscape: Understanding and Mapping the Vulnerability of Forests to Hotter Droughts Hydrologic sensitivity to climate change and aspen mortality in Upper Sheep Creek, Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (21st century scenarios) Extremes to Ex-Streams: Informing Ecological Drought Adaptation in the Northwest Early growth interactions between a mangrove and an herbaceous salt marsh species are not affected by elevated CO2 or drought, Louisiana saltmarsh, 2015 Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains Understanding New Paradigms for “Environmental Flows” and Water Allocation in the Middle Rio Grande River Basin in a Changing Climate Juvenile coho salmon stream survey data and associated analysis to estimate abundance and survival in Mason Creek, tributary of East Fork Lewis River, SW Washington, during summer of 2017 USGS EcoDrought Stream Discharge, Gage Height, and Water Temperature Data in Massachusetts Juvenile coho salmon stream survey data and associated analysis to estimate abundance and survival in Mason Creek, tributary of East Fork Lewis River, SW Washington, during summer of 2017 USGS EcoDrought Stream Discharge, Gage Height, and Water Temperature Data in Massachusetts Early growth interactions between a mangrove and an herbaceous salt marsh species are not affected by elevated CO2 or drought, Louisiana saltmarsh, 2015 Leaf to Landscape: Understanding and Mapping the Vulnerability of Forests to Hotter Droughts The Impact of Drought on Waterbirds and Their Wetland Habitats in California’s Central Valley Understanding New Paradigms for “Environmental Flows” and Water Allocation in the Middle Rio Grande River Basin in a Changing Climate Hydrologic sensitivity to climate change and aspen mortality in Upper Sheep Creek, Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (21st century scenarios) Extremes to Ex-Streams: Informing Ecological Drought Adaptation in the Northwest Understanding Extreme Climate Events in the North Central U.S. Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains Alaska EcoDrought Synthesis Workshop Newsletter, September 2015