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In the desert Southwest, changes in species composition, abundance, and distribution that may occur with climate change have significant implications for management of natural resources. These changes include: the extirpation or introduction of species, losses of biodiversity, shifts in structure and function of ecosystems and the services they provide, changes in wildlife habitat, invasion of non-native species, and changes in fire regimes. For planning, mitigation, and adaption, land managers would be greatly aided by knowing, in advance, which plant species, functional types, and assemblages will change in response to climate change so that monitoring and mitigation measures can focus on those resources. FY2012In...
Abstract: We used a numerical model to investigate how a barrier island groundwater system responds to increases of up to 60 cm in sea level. We found that a sea-level rise of 20 cm leads to substantial changes in the depth of the water table and the extent and depth of saltwater intrusion, which are key determinants in the establishment, distribution and succession of vegetation assemblages and habitat suitability in barrier islands ecosystems. In our simulations, increases in water-table height in areas with a shallow depth to water (or thin vadose zone) resulted in extensive groundwater inundation of land surface and a thinning of the underlying freshwater lens. We demonstrated the interdependence of the groundwater...
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One of the determinants of runoff is the occurrence of excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future (pseudo-global warming) climate scenarios. This simple analysis allowed us to map the potential risk of excess rainfall across the...
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One of the determinants of runoff is the occurrence of excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future (pseudo-global warming) climate scenarios. Here we provide two rasters of excess rainfall for current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099)...
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Explore climate change impacts on vegetation across the Desert and Southern Rockies LCCs using historical monitoring data collected from 23 sites across the Sonoran, Chihuahuan, Mojave and Colorado Plateau deserts for 30-50 years. This data will then be combined with ecosystem water balance model simulations to establish features of water availability critical for plant species response. Results will allow managers to identify species and communities at risk under future climate scenarios based on predicted changes in plant water availability. Due to the high variability in soils, incorporating a detailed understanding of soil water availability beyond bioclimatic envelope approaches in the desert Southwest is essential...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags...
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One of the determinants of runoff is the occurrence of excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future (pseudo-global warming) climate scenarios. Here we provide a raster stack that contain the probability of excess rainfall exceeding...
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Dataset includes publicly available geologic and rainfall data, and environmental and ecological data derived or collected for this project. Specifically, water infiltration measurements, interepreted field-saturated hydraulic conductivity values, ungulate activity, vegetation cover, general soil and weather conditions data are included. Soil samples were collected, lab analyzed, and are included in the dataset. Field-collected data are associated with plots that encompassed approximately a 3 x 3 m area; site data represent approximately 20 x 20 m. First posted: 4 March 2020 (available from author) Revised: April 13, 2020 (version 2.0) The revision is provided due to minor refinement of the dataset and updated...
Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change.Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables.Our analyses...
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​Abstract: Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags...
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We used an individual-based plant simulation model that represents intra- and inter-specific competition for water availability, which is represented by a process-based soil water balance model. For dominant plant functional types, we quantified changes in biomass and characterized agreement among 52 future climate scenarios. We then used a multivariate matching algorithm to generate fine-scale interpolated surfaces of functional type biomass for our study area.
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Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change.Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables.Our analyses...


    map background search result map search result map The Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection Under Climate Change (Not listed in the LCC Science Catalog due to Desert LCC co-funding and catalog administering) Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection under Climate Change Publication and Report: Ecosystem Water Balance in a Desert Grassland Webinar: Grassland Vulnerability to Climate Change in Southwest Deserts Hawaiian Islands datasets quantifying the effects of invasive animals and plants on native forests across the archipelago 2019 (ver. 2.0 April 2020) Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios Hawaiian Islands probability of excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) scenarios Hawaiian Islands probability of excess rainfall conditions by land cover type under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) scenarios Hawaiian Islands datasets quantifying the effects of invasive animals and plants on native forests across the archipelago 2019 (ver. 2.0 April 2020) Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios Hawaiian Islands probability of excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) scenarios Hawaiian Islands probability of excess rainfall conditions by land cover type under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) scenarios The Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection Under Climate Change (Not listed in the LCC Science Catalog due to Desert LCC co-funding and catalog administering) Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection under Climate Change Publication and Report: Ecosystem Water Balance in a Desert Grassland Webinar: Grassland Vulnerability to Climate Change in Southwest Deserts