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Evaluating the conditions where a species can persist is an important question in ecology both to understand tolerances of organisms and to predict distributions across landscapes. Presence data combined with background or pseudo-absence locations are commonly used with species distribution modeling to develop these relationships. However, there is not a standard method to generate background or pseudo-absence locations, and method choice affects model outcomes. We evaluated combinations of both model algorithms (simple and complex generalized linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, Maxent, boosted regression trees, and random forest) and background methods (random, minimum convex polygon, and continuous...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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Identifying spawning grounds of Asian carp is important for determining the reproductive front of invasive populations. Ichthyoplankton monitoring along the Illinois Waterway (IWW) has provided information on abundances of Asian carp eggs in the IWW's navigation pools. Post-fertilization times derived from egg development stages and water temperatures can be used to estimate spawning times of Asian carp eggs, but estimating how far these eggs have drifted requires information on river hydraulics. A Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) program was designed to predict the drift of Asian carp eggs in the riverine environment with egg growth considered. This paper presents a reverse-time particle tracking (RTPT) algorithm...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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Truncated distributions of pelagophilic fishes have been observed across the Great Plains of North America, with water use and landscape fragmentation implicated as contributing factors. Developing conservation strategies for these species is hindered by the existence of multiple competing flow regime hypotheses related to species persistence. Our primary study objective was to compare the predicted distributions of one pelagophil, the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, constructed using different flow regime metrics. Further, we investigated different approaches for improving temporal transferability of the species distribution model (SDM). We compared four hypotheses: mean annual flow (a baseline), the 75th...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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Understanding the effects of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for designing effective policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. In the Midwest United States, management practices in the croplands have been improved to increase crop production and reduce SOC loss since the 1980s. Many studies of SOC dynamics in croplands have been performed to understand the effects of management, but the results are still not conclusive. This study quantified SOC dynamics in the Midwest croplands from 1980 to 2012 with the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modelling System (GEMS) and available management data. Our results showed that the total SOC in the croplands decreased from 1190...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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Land cover change is one of the key driving forces for ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics. We present an approach for using sequential remotely sensed land cover observations and a biogeochemical model to estimate contemporary and future ecosystem carbon trends. We applied the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modelling System (GEMS) for the Laurentian Plains and Hills ecoregion in the northeastern United States for the period of 1975-2025. The land cover changes, especially forest stand-replacing events, were detected on 30 randomly located 10-km by 10-km sample blocks, and were assimilated by GEMS for biogeochemical simulations. In GEMS, each unique combination of major controlling variables (including land cover change...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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The relationships between optimal foraging of individuals and population stability are addressed by testing, with a spatially explicit model, the effect of patch departure behaviour on individual energetics and population stability. A factorial experimental design was used to analyse the relevance of the behavioural factor in relation to three factors that are known to affect individual energetics; i.e. resource growth rate (RGR), assimilation efficiency (AE), and body size of individuals. The factorial combination of these factors produced 432 cases, and 1000 replicate simulations were run for each case. Net energy intake rates of the modelled consumers increased with increasing RGR, consumer AE, and consumer body...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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The selection of a distributional assumption suitable for modelling macroinvertebrate density data is typically challenging. Macroinvertebrate data often exhibit substantially larger variances than expected under a standard count assumption, that of the Poisson distribution. Such overdispersion may derive from multiple sources, including heterogeneity of habitat (historically and spatially), differing life histories for organisms collected within a single collection in space and time, and autocorrelation. Taken to extreme, heterogeneity of habitat may be argued to explain the frequent large proportions of zero observations in macroinvertebrate data. Sampling locations may consist of habitats defined qualitatively...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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We present a simulation model for risk assessment of the impact of insecticide inhibitors of cholinesterase (ChE) applied in irrigated agricultural fields on non-target wildlife. The model, which we developed as a compartment model based on difference equations (??t = 1 h), consists of six submodels describing the dynamics of (1) insecticide application, (2) insecticide movement into floodable soil, (3) irrigation and rain, (4) insecticide dissolution in water, (5) foraging and insecticide intake from water, and (6) ChE inhibition and recovery. To demonstrate application of the model, we simulated historical and "worst-case" scenarios of the impact of ChE-inhibiting insecticides on white-winged doves (Zenaida asiatica)...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951–2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr−1 (1 teragram = 1012 g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in climate change and hydrological studies in relation to how it links ecosystem carbon cycles and hydrological cycles together. However, obtaining reliable WUE results based on site-level flux data remains a great challenge when scaling up to larger regional zones. Biophysical, process-based ecosystem models are powerful tools to study WUE at large spatial and temporal scales. The Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations on ecosystem-level WUE (defined as the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET)) in relation to terrestrial ecosystems in China for...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001. We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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We developed an integrated hydroecological model to provide a comprehensive set of hydrologic variables representing five major components of the flow regime at 856 aquatic-invertebrate monitoring sites in New Jersey. The hydroecological model simulates streamflow by routing water that moves overland and through the subsurface from atmospheric delivery to the watershed outlet. Snow accumulation and melt, evapotranspiration, precipitation, withdrawals, discharges, pervious- and impervious-area runoff, and lake storage were accounted for in the water balance. We generated more than 78 flow variables, which describe the frequency, magnitude, duration, rate of change, and timing of flow events. Highly correlated variables...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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The need for accurate information in modelling depends on the objectives of the effort. but trustworthy data are essential for a model intended for use in the management of natural resources. This point is illustrated by referring to a recently published model of canvasback ducks. We demonstrate that several key assumptions are not supported by biological evidence, and that inferences drawn from the model could be dangerously misleading if they were used to guide the management of canvasback ducks.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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Dispersal kernels in grid-based population models specify the proportion, distance and direction of movements within the model landscape. Spatial errors in dispersal kernels can have large compounding effects on model accuracy. Circular Gaussian and Laplacian dispersal kernels at a range of spatial resolutions were investigated, and methods for minimizing errors caused by the discretizing process were explored. Kernels of progressively smaller sizes relative to the landscape grid size were calculated using cell-integration and cell-center methods. These kernels were convolved repeatedly, and the final distribution was compared with a reference analytical solution. For large Gaussian kernels (σ > 10 cells), the total...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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Measuring habitat and understanding habitat dynamics have become increasingly important for wildlife conservation. Using remotely-sensed data, we developed procedures to measure breeding habitat abundance for the federally listed piping plover (Charadrius melodus) at Lake Sakakawea, North Dakota, USA. We also developed a model to predict habitat abundance based on past and projected water levels, vegetation colonization rates, and topography. Previous studies define plover habitat as flat areas (<10% slope) with ≤30% obstruction of bare substrate. Compared to ground-based data, remotely-sensed habitat classifications (≤30/>30% bare-substrate obstruction) were 76% correct and omission and commission errors were equal....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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We have developed a dynamic epidemiological model informed by records of viral presence and genotypes to evaluate potential transmission routes maintaining a viral pathogen in economically and culturally important anadromous fish populations. In the Columbia River Basin, infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) causes severe disease, predominantly in juvenile steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and less frequently in Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). Mortality events following IHNV infection can be devastating for individual hatchery programs. Despite reports of high local mortality and extensive surveillance efforts, there are questions about how viral transmission is maintained. Modeling this system offers...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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Rugged topography along the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons, exemplifies features common to canyon-bound streams and rivers of the arid southwest. Physical relief influences regulated river systems, especially those that are altered, and have become partially reliant on aquatic primary production. We measured and modeled instantaneous solar flux in a topographically complex environment to determine where differences in daily, seasonal and annual solar insolation occurred in this river system. At a system-wide scale, topographic complexity generates a spatial and temporal mosaic of varying solar insolation. This solar variation is a predictable consequence of channel orientation, geomorphology, elevation...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling
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We describe the development, structure, and corroboration process of a simulation model of animal behavior (MOAB). MOAB can create spatially explicit, individual-based animal foraging models. Users can create or replicate heterogeneous landscape patterns, and place resources and individual animals of a goven species on that landscape to simultaneously simulate the foraging behavior of multiple species. The heuristic rules for animal behavior are maintained in a user-modifiable expert system. MOAB can be used to explore hypotheses concerning the influence of landscape patttern on animal movement and foraging behavior. A red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) foraging and nest predation model was created to test MOAB's capabilities....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecological Modelling


map background search result map search result map Measuring and predicting abundance and dynamics of habitat for piping plovers on a large reservoir Measuring and predicting abundance and dynamics of habitat for piping plovers on a large reservoir