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Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Because exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose...
One of the first government-sponsored demands for integrated assessment to support decision making in the United States is embodied in the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). Over the past 25 years, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has supported federal agencies’ in evaluating health and environmental impacts as required by NEPA. Many of ORNL’s efforts have focused on complex, programmatic assessments that break new ground and require and integrate expertise from a wide range of technical disciplines. Examples of ORNL projects that illustrate the use of integrated assessment approaches include environmental documentation for: (1) the Department of the Army’s Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program,...
In February 1983, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) identified the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada as one of nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Great Basin, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Yucca Mountain site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE'S General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After...
Because of the inevitable depletion of fossil fuels and the corresponding release of carbon to the environment, the global energy future is complex. Some of the consequences may be politically and economically disruptive, and expensive to remedy. For the next several centuries, fuel requirements will increase with population, land use, and ecosystem degradation. Current or projected levels of aggregated energy resource use will not sustain civilization as we know it beyond a few more generations. At the same time, issues of energy security, reliability, sustainability, recoverability, and safety need attention. We supply a top-down, qualitative model—the surety model—to balance expenditures of limited resources...
We examined bird and bat mortality at a new 89-turbine windfarm constructed in an environmentally sensitive area in north-central Iowa. The windfarm became operational in November 2001. It is located in cropland between three Wildlife Management Areas (WMA's) with historically high bird use. In the past, migrant and resident waterfowl, shorebirds, raptors, and songbirds moved between the WMA's through the area now occupied by the windfarm. Studies of bird collision mortality in California and elsewhere raised concerns about the possibility of mortalities in this area. From April 15, 2003 and December 15, 2003 we searched for dead animals under 26 randomly selected turbines. Six 76.2 m by 3.0 m transects were maintained...
Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Because exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose...
In February 1983, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) identified the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada as one of nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Great Basin, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Yucca Mountain site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE'S General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After...
Because of the inevitable depletion of fossil fuels and the corresponding release of carbon to the environment, the global energy future is complex. Some of the consequences may be politically and economically disruptive, and expensive to remedy. For the next several centuries, fuel requirements will increase with population, land use, and ecosystem degradation. Current or projected levels of aggregated energy resource use will not sustain civilization as we know it beyond a few more generations. At the same time, issues of energy security, reliability, sustainability, recoverability, and safety need attention. We supply a top-down, qualitative model—the surety model—to balance expenditures of limited resources...
This paper analyzes the determinants and barriers of energy conservation investment behaviour. A number of barriers were found in a literature survey. A three-phase investment model on the micro level was constructed. Hypotheses derived from the model were empirically tested by analyzing a survey of more than 300 Dutch Firms. Economic variables seem to determine investment behaviour to a large extent.
Eight major industrial processes areresponsible for over 50% of industrial energy consumption in most countries. The energy efficiency of these processes was determined in a number of countries, with appropriate corrections for structural differences between countries. It is shown that considerable differences occur between countries, but that manufacturing industry in Eastern Europe in general is less efficient than in EU countries. In all cases efficiency is worse than what is technically and economically feasible. International comparisons provide information on energy efficiency differences, insight into technological differences between countries and into costs requirements for efficiency improvements. The...
The potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the production of energy contained in hot dry rock (HDR) is surveyed here. In general, careful siting and timing and routine control measures should be adequate to prevent significant environmental harm; sites of particular ecological or visual and recreational value, however, may require more extensive (and more expensive) precautions such as using multiwell pads to reduce land disturbance and dry or wet and dry cooling towers to reduce or eliminate the consumptive use of water. The most important uncertainty among the environmental concerns is the seismic response of HDR formations to short-duration fluid injections at pressures above fracture thresholds;...
By replacing fossil fuels bioenergy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but indirect effects might partly or even completely eliminate this benefit. Production of bio-energy products, such as biofuels for transport, causes several indirect effects through their interactions with the global economic and physical systems. Indirect land-use change leads to GHG emissions – in some cases in the same order of magnitude as the fossil emissions – and loss of nature, but there are other relevant indirect effects as well. Intensification of agricultural production is another indirect effect and could be stimulated more to minimise the undesirable land conversion. However, intensification through increased...
In February 1983, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) identified the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada as one of nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Great Basin, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Yucca Mountain site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE'S General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After...
In February 1983, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) identified the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada as one of nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Great Basin, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Yucca Mountain site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE'S General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After...
We examined bird and bat mortality at a new 89-turbine windfarm constructed in an environmentally sensitive area in north-central Iowa. The windfarm became operational in November 2001. It is located in cropland between three Wildlife Management Areas (WMA's) with historically high bird use. In the past, migrant and resident waterfowl, shorebirds, raptors, and songbirds moved between the WMA's through the area now occupied by the windfarm. Studies of bird collision mortality in California and elsewhere raised concerns about the possibility of mortalities in this area. From April 15, 2003 and December 15, 2003 we searched for dead animals under 26 randomly selected turbines. Six 76.2 m by 3.0 m transects were maintained...