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This data contains maximum model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions)...
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This data contains maximum model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions)...
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Simulatations of water levels in the Salish Sea for a continuous hindcast of the period October 1, 1985, to September 30, 2015 were conducted to evaluate the utility and skill of a sea-level anomaly predictor and to develop extreme water level estimates accounting for decadal climate variability. The model accounts for sea level position, tides, remote sea-level anomalies, local winds and storm surge and stream flows as they affect water density. Comparison of modeled and measured water levels showed the model predicts extreme water levels at NOAA tide gage stations within 0.15 m. Model inputs and outputs of time-series water levels along the -5 m depth isobath are presented. In addition, extreme water level recurrence...
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The western coastline of Alaska is highly susceptible to coastal storms, which can cause erosion, flooding, and saltwater storm surge, affecting natural ecosystems, human communities, and commercial activity. Historically, a large buffer of ice along the shoreline has protected this region from some of the more severe effects of coastal storms. However, climate change may not only increase the frequency and intensity of storms, but also cause a loss of shoreline ice, possibly increasing the incidence of coastal erosion and flooding and introducing saltwater to freshwater environments. These hazards have the potential to substantially disrupt the environment and commerce in the region, but more information is needed...
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The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) spreads over 29 atolls and has a population of over 50,000 people; over 27,000 of those people live on the Majuro Atoll, RMI’s capital. Sea level rise threatens the very existence of RMI as high-end projections of sea level rise by the end of the century exceed the average elevation of these low atoll reef islands. Already, waves wash over Majuro during “king tides” when strong winds blow from the west across the broad lagoon, or when there are high open ocean waves. Flooding waves breach island shores in multiple locations and wash into homes, cemeteries, across roads, and into commercial districts. Over the past decade, there has been a widespread exodus of residents...
The south-central U.S. exists in a zone of dramatic transition in terms of eco-climate system diversity. Ecosystems across much of the region rely on warm-season convective precipitation. These convective precipitation is subject to large uncertainties under climate change scenario, possibly leading to gradual or sudden changes in habitats, and ecosystems. The convective precipitation in this region, occurring on a range of time and space scales, is extremely challenging to predict in future climate scenario. In this project, we established a unique, cutting-edge, dynamic downscaling capability to address the challenge of predicting precipitation in the south-central U.S. in current and future climate scenarios....
Under the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program (MsCIP), the US Army Corps of Engineers will place up to 22 million cubic yards (MCY) of sand to restore the physical integrity of Ship Island. In this project, structured decision making (SDM) was utilized to provide a formal process for analyzing decisions about repairing storm-related damages that may arise during island construction to maximize post-construction sustainability of the restoration effort. Decision support tools were developed to link restoration objectives and management options while accounting for tradeoffs between objectives and uncertainties such as storm events during and after construction. Expert elicitations, predictive models, and quantitative...
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A large portion of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean; however, our coasts are also home to many fish, wildlife, and plant species that are important for recreation, tourism, local economies, biodiversity, and healthy coastal ecosystems. Coastal habitats also provide protective ecosystem services to human communities, which are increasingly at risk to storms and sea level rise under future climate change. Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. In a collaborative project between the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative...
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Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species (like migratory birds and threatened and endangered species). The risks of significant negative impacts are likely to be higher in these island systems than in many temperate regions of the world because of the limited size of their land masses, high numbers of species that only exist in narrowly defined regions, and expectations that tropical environments will experience greater changes in temperature. Tropical island communities are faced with making important decisions related to adaptation that could impact the health of important natural resources and ecosystems. However, a lack of scientific guidance and information...
Mean daily sapflux density (cm/hr) by sensor at each of four study sites. Each sensor represents flow within the xylem of a sample ‘ōhi’a tree. Daily volumetric soil moisture (m^3/m^3) is also given. The number of erroneous or blank values and the standard deviation are given for each sensor, each day. All sensor outputs are given, including erroneous values.
Abstract (from RMetS): Synoptic‐scale patterns associated with daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Alaska are identified and evaluated for daily variability in order to understand consistency in forcing mechanisms associated with extreme events as well as the tendency for each pattern to produce an extreme event. Daily station data at five locations for the 29‐year period from 1982 to 2010 are used. The widely recognized ClimDex indices are used to identify extreme high temperature, low temperature, and single‐day precipitation events. Pressure patterns during extreme events are evaluated seasonally for summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) at mean sea level pressure, 700 and 500‐hPa geopotential heights. Temperature...
Abstract (from Springer Link): Species-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning. We tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird...
Abstract (from Springer Link): Conservation planning is increasingly using “coarse filters” based on the idea of conserving “nature’s stage”. One such approach is based on ecosystems and the concept of ecological integrity, although myriad ways exist to measure ecological integrity. To describe our ecosystem-based index of ecological integrity (IEI) and its derivative index of ecological impact (ecoImpact), and illustrate their applications for conservation assessment and planning in the northeastern United States. We characterized the biophysical setting of the landscape at the 30 m cell resolution using a parsimonious suite of settings variables. Based on these settings variables and mapped ecosystems, we computed...
Montane regions support distinct animal and plant communities that are widely viewed as communities of high conservation concern due to their significant contribution to regional biodiversity. These communities are also thought to be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenically caused stressors such as climate change, which is generally expected to cause upward shifts and potential range restrictions in montane plant and animal distributions. In the northern Appalachian Mountains of North America, not only is it becoming warmer at mid-elevations but the ecotone between the northern hardwood and the montane coniferous forests is also shifting. Therefore, species that are limited by climate or habitat along the elevational...
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With an average elevation of just seven feet above sea level, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is acutely vulnerable to inundation from both episodic events such as storm surge and chronic conditions such as sea-level rise. Some projections estimate that future sea-level rise could exceed the average elevation of these islands by 2100. Already, residents are facing extreme high tides and 16 foot swells that flood the islands with saltwater, damaging homes and infrastructure and contaminating the freshwater supply. Land elevation is the primary factor that determines the vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation. This project builds on previous work in which a 1-meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM)...
A new satellite-derived low cloud retrieval reveals rich spatial texture and coherent space-time propagation in summertime California coastal low cloudiness (CLC). Throughout the region, CLC is greatest during May–September but has considerable monthly variability within this summer season. On average, June is cloudiest along the coast of southern California and northern Baja, Mexico, while July is cloudiest along northern California's coast. Over the course of the summer, the core of peak CLC migrates northward along coastal California, reaching its northernmost extent in late July/early August, then recedes while weakening. The timing and movement of the CLC climatological structure is related to the summer evolution...
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All of these files are Access Databases that contain RTK elevation survey data and the corresponding vegetation surveys that were conducted concurrently. Over 2,000 intertidal plots were sampled for plant cover, frequency of occurrence, and species richness across the six study sites. Approximately 57 vascular plant species were found in the study, including grasses, rushes, forbs and sedges. Vegetated marsh ranged in elevation from approximately local mean tide level (MTL) to the marsh-upland transition zone (upland plots, defined as areas estimated to flood 1 time per year on average, were not considered for further analysis). We assessed vegetation cover and species richness concurrently with elevation surveys...
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We used WARMER, a 1-D cohort model of wetland accretion (Swanson et al., 2014), which is based on Callaway et al. (1996), to examine the effects of three SLR projections on future habitat composition at each study site. Each cohort in the model represents the total organic and inorganic matter added to the soil column each year. WARMER calculates annual elevation changes relative to MSL based on projected changes in relative sea level, subsidence, inorganic sediment accumulation, aboveground and belowground organic matter inputs, soil compaction, and organic matter decomposition for a representative marsh area. Cohort density, a function of soil mineral, organic, and water content, is calculated at each time step...
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In the southwestern US, the meteorological phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs) has gained increasing attention due to its strong connections to floods, snowpacks and water supplies in the West Coast states. Relatively less is known about the ecological implications of ARs, particularly in the interior Southwest, where AR storms are less common. To address this gap, we compared a chronology of AR landfalls on the west coast between 1989-2011 and between 25-42.5ºN, to annual metrics of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI; an indicator of vegetation productivity) and daily-resolution precipitation data to assess influences of AR-fed winter precipitation on vegetation productivity across the southwestern...
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To assess the current topography of the tidal marshes we conducted survey-grade elevation surveys at all sites between 2009 and 2013 using a Leica RX1200 Real Time Kinematic (RTK)Global Positioning System (GPS) rover (±1 cm horizontal, ±2 cm vertical accuracy; Leica Geosystems Inc., Norcross, GA; Figure 4). At sites with RTK network coverage (San Pablo, Petaluma, Pt. Mugu, and Newport), rover positions were received in real time from the Leica Smartnet system via a CDMA modem (www.lecia-geosystems.com). At sites without network coverage (Humboldt, Bolinas, Morro and Tijuana), rover positions were received in real time from a Leica GS10 antenna base station via radio link. When using the base station, we adjusted...
map background search result map search result map Modeling Western Alaska Coastal Hazards Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments Humboldt, California: Tidal Marsh Digital Elevation Model Tidal Marsh Vegetation and Elevation Data SLR Projections, Tijuana, Calif., 2010-2060 Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Data on influence of atmospheric rivers on vegetation productivity and fire patterns in the southwestern US Simulating and Projecting Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Majuro Atoll Characterizing Inundation Risk for Majuro Atoll CoSMoS v3.1 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in San Luis Obispo County CoSMoS v3.1 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in San Francisco County Salish Sea water level hindcast simulations: 1985-2015 SLR Projections, Tijuana, Calif., 2010-2060 Humboldt, California: Tidal Marsh Digital Elevation Model CoSMoS v3.1 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in San Francisco County Simulating and Projecting Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Majuro Atoll Characterizing Inundation Risk for Majuro Atoll CoSMoS v3.1 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in San Luis Obispo County Salish Sea water level hindcast simulations: 1985-2015 Tidal Marsh Vegetation and Elevation Data Modeling Western Alaska Coastal Hazards Data on influence of atmospheric rivers on vegetation productivity and fire patterns in the southwestern US Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future