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The purpose of the pilot project is to trial different methods and vendors of wind power forecasting to determine the best approach to forecasting wind power in Alberta in the future. Three vendors were chosen with global forecasting experience; AWS Truewind (New York), energy & meteo systems (Germany), and WEPROG (Denmark). Each vendor will forecast for 12 geographically dispersed wind power facilities for a year (May 07 to May 08) providing a forecast covering the next 48 hours refreshed hourly. ORTECH Power was chosen to perform the quantitative analysis of the results analyzing methods, timeframes and geographical locations. Phoenix Engineering was chosen to collect all the necessary meteorological data required...
Tables are presented listing parameters and fit statistics for 25,453 maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR) models describing hydrological drought probabilities at 324 gaged locations on rivers and streams in the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Data from previous months are used to estimate chance of hydrological drought during future summer months. Models containing 1 explanatory variable use monthly mean daily streamflow data (DV) to provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of monthly mean DV from the previous 11 months. Outcomes are estimated 1 to 12 months ahead of their occurrence. Models containing 2 explanatory variables use monthly mean daily...
This data release is the update of the U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase data release Bera (2021b), with the processed data for the period October 1, 2019, through September 30, 2020. This data release describes the watershed data management (WDM) database SC20.WDM. The precipitation data are collected from a tipping-bucket rain-gage network and the hydrologic data (stage and discharge) are collected at USGS streamflow-gaging stations in and around DuPage County, Illinois. Hourly precipitation and hydrologic data for the period October 1, 2019, through September 30, 2020, are processed following the guidelines described in Bera (2014) and Murphy and Ishii (2006) and appended to SC19.WDM and renamed as SC20.WDM....
These data were compiled to allow examination of northern spotted owl territorial occupancy dynamics, especially with regards to the roles played by habitat and competition with barred owl in past and future dynamics. Data are estimates of parameters derived from previous modelling of northern spotted owl territorial occupancy dynamics. These data were collected as part of monitoring of northern spotted owl demography. Associated code allows analysis of these estimates to understand the roles of competition and habitat in recent northern spotted owl declines and to predict the future of northern spotted owl under various management scenarios.
Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were used as predictors in a long lead-time streamflow forecast model in which the partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique was used with over 600 unimpaired streamflow stations in the continental United States. Initially, PLSR calibration (or test) models were developed for each station, using the previous spring-summer Pacific (or Atlantic) Ocean SSTs as predictors. Regions were identified in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Colorado River Basin, Midwest, and Atlantic states in which Pacific Ocean SSTs resulted in skillful forecasts. Atlantic Ocean SSTs resulted in significant regions being identified in the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and Atlantic...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation,
Journal Citation;
Tags: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,
forecasting,
least squares method,
ocean water,
streamflow,
Habitat suitability was estimated for invasive Phragmites in the coastal Great Lakes region (shoreline to 10 km inland). These estimates were based on current distribution patterns and environmental conditions. Phragmites presence or absence was defined based on a distribution map produced by cooperative research between the GLSC and Michigan Technical Research Institute. Environmental variables were processed in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and came from existing publicly available sources. Variables include descriptors of soils, nutrients, topography, ecoregion, anthropogenic disturbance, and climate. Environmental conditions and Phragmites presence/absence were sampled in a GIS at points established...
Categories: Data;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WMS Layer;
Tags: Accountability,
GLRI,
Great Lakes,
Great Lakes Restoration Initiative,
Invasive Species,
Description of Work U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will use remote sensing data to establish a baseline understanding of current distributions of invasive wetland plants and then forecast potential invasion corridors. Alterations to the Great Lakes shoreline or water-level patterns associated with global climate change could have significant impacts on the extent and composition of coastal habitat. Low lake levels can expose fertile wetland bottomlands to invasive species such as common reed ( Phragmites). Goals & Objectives Goals: Identify current Phragmites distribution in the Great Lakes coastal zone, detect potential areas vulnerable to invasion due to influences such as altered water levels, nutrient and...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: Accountability,
Areas of concern,
Climate change,
GLRI,
Governmental,
FGDC Metadata templates for 5 product areas during 2019 have been created to programmatically generate metadata for the products that are produced daily or weekly on the FireDanger production system. Fire Danger products are broken into 5 product areas (Fire Potential Index, Large Fire Probability, Predictive Service Area (provisional), Relative Greenness (weekly), and NDVI Greenness (weekly)). Metadata files are provided for each raster in the 2019 product areas. A folder is also available containing the 5 metadata templates that were used to generate content for each product area. For more details on the FireDanger production system see https://www.usgs.gov/land-resources/lcsp/fire-danger-forecast.
This text file "Solar radiation.txt" contains hourly solar radiation data in Langleys and associated codes from January 1, 1948, to September 30, 2014. The primary source of the data is the Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois. The codes consist of a three-digit sequence in the form "xyz" that describe the origin and transformations of the data values. They indicate if the data are original or missing, the method that was used to fill the missing periods, and any other transformations of the data. Bera (2014) describes in detail an addition of a new code based on the regression analysis of the backup data series at St. Charles (STC) for water years (WY) 2008-10. The user of the data should consult Over and others...
This data release is the update of the U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase data release Bera (2022b), with the processed data for the period October 1, 2020, through September 30, 2021. This data release describes the watershed data management (WDM) database SC21.WDM. The precipitation data are collected from a tipping-bucket rain-gage network and the hydrologic data (stage and discharge) are collected at USGS streamflow-gaging stations in and around DuPage County, Illinois. Hourly precipitation and hydrologic data for the period October 1, 2020, through September 30, 2021, are processed following the guidelines described in Bera (2014) and Murphy and Ishii (2006) and appended to SC20.WDM and renamed as SC21.WDM....
In this study, a novel mathematical method is proposed for modeling and forecasting electric energy demand. The method is capable of making long-term forecasts. However, unlike other long-term forecasting models, the proposed method produces hourly results with improved accuracy. The model is constructed and verified using 26-year-long real-life load data (4 years with hourly resolution) obtained from the Turkish Electric Power Company. The overall method consists of a nested combination of three sub-sections for modeling. The first section is the coarse level for modeling variations of yearly average loads. The second section refines this structure by modeling weekly residual load variations within a year. The...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Energy demand,
Forecasting,
Mathematical modeling,
Surface fitting
With wind power capacities increasing in many electricity systems across the world, operators are faced with new problems related to the uncertain nature of wind power. Foremost of these is the quantification and provision of system reserve. In this paper a new methodology is presented which quantifies the reserve needed on a system taking into account the uncertain nature of the wind power. Generator outage rates and load and wind power forecasts are taken into consideration when quantifying the amount of reserve needed. The reliability of the system is used as an objective measure to determine the effect of increasing wind power penetration. The methodology is applied to a model of the all Ireland electricity...
ELECTRICITY GENERATED FROM WIND POWER WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE in the future energy supply in many countries. This implies the need to integrate this power into the existing electricity supply system, which was mainly designed for large units of fossil fuel and nuclear power stations. Wind power has different characteristics and therefore this integration leads to some important challenges from the point of view of the electricity system. The availability of the power supply generated from wind energy varies fundamentally from that generated conventionally from fossil fuels. The most important difference is that wind power generation depends on the availability of the wind; i.e., it is weather dependent. In the...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Denmark,
Forecasting,
Germany,
North America,
Spain,
Tables are presented listing parameters used in logistic regression equations describing drought streamflow probabilities in the Northeastern United States. Streamflow daily data, streamflow monthly mean data, maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR) equation explanatory parameters, equation goodness of fit parameters, and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) AUC values identifying the utility of each relation, describe each model of the probability (chance) of a particular streamflow daily value exceeding or not exceeding an identified drought streamflow threshold.
Meteorological Database, Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois, January 1, 1948 - September 30, 2014
IMPORTANT NOTE: On September 27, 2016, a formatting error in these data was discovered. This error involves extra spaces in certain lines of the .txt data files, which may cause an error in the interpretation of the data values or data-source flags when read by other software. This error has been corrected in the WY 2015 data which can be accessed from this link. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with DuPage County, Illinois, maintains a Watershed Data Management (WDM) database consisting of hourly dewpoint temperature, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed data based on the data collected at the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and hourly potential evapotranspiration computed from them...
The text file "Dewpoint temperature.txt" contains hourly data and associated codes from January 1, 1948, to September 30, 2014. The primary source of the data is the Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois. The codes consist of a three-digit sequence in the form "xyz" that describe the origin and transformations of the data values. They indicate if the data are original or missing, the method that was used to fill the missing periods, and any other transformations of the data. The user of the data should consult Over and others (2010) for the detailed documentation of the data codes. Reference Cited: Over, T.M., Price, T.H., and Ishii, A.L., 2010, Development and analysis of a meteorological database, Argonne...
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