Filters: Tags: Gaussian process (X)
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Characterizing the risks of anthropogenic climate change poses considerable statistical challenges. A key problem is how to combine the information contained in large-scale observational data sets with simulations of Earth system models in a statistically sound and computationally tractable manner. Here, we describe a statistical approach for improving projections of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The AMOC is part of the global ocean conveyor belt circulation and transfers heat between low and high latitudes in the Atlantic basin. The AMOC might collapse in a “tipping point” response to anthropogenic climate forcings. Assessing the risk of an AMOC collapse is of considerable interest...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Bayesian hierarchical modeling,
Gaussian process,
Southeast CASC,
climate change,
computer experiments,
This csv contains spatio-temporal predictions for the year of white-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans in support of the manuscript "Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030." Gaussian process models were fitted to monitoring data on the spread of white-nose syndrome in North America from 2007-2022. These models are used to make predictions on a fine spatial grid, giving a forecast (and hindcast) of the spread of white-nose syndrome at any location. The code relies on the GRTS grid for model prediction, which is publicly accessible at https://doi.org/10.5066/p9o75ydv.
Categories: Data;
Tags: Cave-hibernating bats,
Disease spread,
Epidemiology,
Gaussian process,
Pseudogymnoascus destructans,
This code supports the manuscript "Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030." The code is used to fit Gaussian process models to publicly accessible monitoring data on the spread of white-nose syndrome in North America. These models are used to make predictions on a fine spatial grid, giving a forecast (and hindcast) of the spread of white-nose syndrome at any location. Also contained in the code is a retrospective cross validation experiment, producing parameter estimates and model scoring over time. The code also relies on the GRTS grid for model prediction, which is publicly accessible at https://doi.org/10.5066/p9o75ydv. Shapefiles such as administrative...
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