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The objective of this project is to map the supply of ecosystem services (where natural ecosystems have the capacity to provide a certain product or service that could be of use to people), use of those services (where people or other entities that use the product or service exist), and the condition of ecosystems providing these services over time. The resulting datasets were used to generate metrics for pilot ecosystem accounts for the southeast – part of natural capital accounts that assess ecosystems’ contributions to the economy in order to help governments better understand their reliance on natural systems and manage natural resources to ensure their benefits are sustained into the future. These data were...
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Maintaining the native prairie lands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), which provide an important habitat for declining grassland species, requires anticipating the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and climate change on the region’s vegetation. Specifically, climate change threatens NGP grasslands by increasing the potential encroachment of native woody species into areas where they were previously only present in minor numbers. This project used a dynamic vegetation model to simulate vegetation type (grassland, shrubland, woodland, and forest) for the NGP for a range of projected future climates and relevant management scenarios. Comparing results of these simulations illustrates...
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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
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Grasslands in the northern Great Plains are important ecosystems that support local economies, tribal communities, livestock grazing, diverse plant and animal communities, and large-scale migrations of big game ungulates, grassland birds, and waterfowl. Climate change and variability impact how people and animals live on and interact with grasslands, and can bring more frequent droughts, fires, or new plant species that make managing these landscapes challenging. Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century first requires a synthesis of what is known across all of these scales and a gap analysis to identify key areas of focus for future...
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Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, and will likely trigger significant and permanent changes in both ecological and human communities. Such transformations are already occurring in the Arctic region of Alaska, where temperatures are warming at twice the global average and causing some ecosystems to transition to new states. Arctic warming has led to coastal erosion that has forced human communities to relocate and a loss of sea ice that has forced marine mammals, such as polar bears and walrus, to adapt to a more terrestrial mode of living. Meanwhile, in the Great Plains of the U.S., past interactions between land and water use during the Dust Bowl and recent high rates of depletion of the Ogallala...
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Wildfires scorched 10 million acres across the United States in 2015, and for the first time on record, wildfire suppression costs topped $2 billion. Wildfire danger modeling is an important tool for understanding when and where wildfires will occur, and recent work by our team in the South Central United States has shown wildfire danger models may be improved by incorporating soil moisture information. Advancements in wildfire danger modeling may increase wildfire preparedness, and therefore decrease loss of life, property, and habitat due to wildfire. Still, soil moisture—an important determinant of wildfire risk—is not currently used for wildfire danger assessments because data are generally unavailable at the...
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Prairies were once widespread across North America, but are now one of the most endangered and least protected ecosystems in the world. Agriculture and residential development have reduced once extensive prairies into a patchwork of remnant prairies and “surrogate” grasslands (e.g., hayfields, planted pastures). Grassland ecosystems and many grassland-dependent birds are also particularly vulnerable to rapid shifts in climate and associated changes in drought and extreme weather. The Central Flyway is a vast bird migration route that comprises more than half of the continental U.S., and extends from Central America to Canada, and harbors the greatest diversity of grassland birds in North America. Throughout this...
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This data set includes a dropped-edge analysis of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on land cover data from 2006 and graph theory to evaluate Landscape Resistance to Dispersal (LRD). LRD represents the degree to which habitat availability limits species movement. LRD decreases as habitat availability increases and increases as habitat availability decreases. This data set includes a range of LRD thresholds to represent species with different dispersal abilities and responses to landscape structure. A threshold indicates the highest LRD that still allows dispersal by a particular group of species. LRD thresholds are included in the data set, with low values representing connectivity...
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We used land cover projections for 2011 and 2050 of two scenarios derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Scenario A1B emphasizes economic growth with a global orientation and scenario B2 focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view. Our study area included counties within the southern Great Plains ecoregion in Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico. We calculated changes in landscape connectivity (dECA) between 2011 and 2050 for different species groups and landscape scenarios. We also calculated changes in habitat suitability (dA). We assessed the degree to which changes in landscape connectivity were influenced by changes in grassland...
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In the Pacific Northwest, land and resource managers strive to make decisions that benefit both natural and human communities, balancing ecological and economic demands including wildlife habitat, forest products, forage for grazing, clean water, and wildfire control. Climate change adds a layer of complexity to the planning process because of its uncertain effects on the environment. In order to make sound decisions, managers need information about how climate change will affect wildlife habitat, both on its own and in conjunction with management actions. The goal of this project was to explore how future climate may interact with management alternatives to shape wildlife habitat across large landscapes. Scientists...
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Habitat fragmentation, modification, and loss have been implicated in the decline of many species, including more than 85% of those considered threatened or endangered. Therefore, connectivity, or the ability of organisms to move among habitat patches, is a critical component of landscape health. In addition to influencing the sustainability of wildlife populations and communities, connectivity also contributes to the availability of ecosystem services. The goal of this project was to evaluate terrestrial connectivity across the South Central United States, with a focus on the impact of projected climate and land use changes. The researchers addressed this goal using a variety of approaches, including evaluating...
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The desert grasslands of the southwestern United States support many wildlife species of management concern and economic value. The American pronghorn, for example, is a game species that contributes to local and state economies. Climate extremes, including severe droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are expected to occur more frequently in the Southwest. These extremes can affect the availability of food and water needed by wildlife. Wildlife management agencies and conservation organizations need information on resource availability for wildlife under future climate scenarios to design effective management strategies to sustain wildlife populations. Project scientists are working with the Arizona...
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The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) seek to enhance scientific understanding of how climate trends and variability are linked to phenology across spatial scales, with the ultimate goal of being able to understand and predict climate impacts on natural resources. A key step towards achieving this long-term goal is connecting local observations (individual plants or animals) of phenology with those at regional to continental scales (10 km to 10,000 km), which may ultimately be used to better understand phenology across ecosystems and landscapes and thereby inform natural resource management. The specific shorter-term goals of this effort are to process...
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The Prairie Pothole Region spans parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Montana, Iowa and south-central Canada and contains millions of wetlands that provide habitat for breeding and migrating birds. Because it is the continent’s most important breeding area for waterfowl, conservation and management largely focuses on protecting habitat for nesting ducks. However, other wetland-dependent birds also rely on this region, and it is important to understand the degree to which habitat conserved for ducks provides habitat for other species, and how the quality of this habitat will be affected by climate change. Project researchers tested whether waterfowl are effective representatives, or surrogates, for other wetland-dependent...
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This data set includes a dropped-edge analysis of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on land cover data from 2006 and graph theory to evaluate Landscape Resistance to Dispersal (LRD). LRD represents the degree to which habitat availability limits species movement. LRD decreases as habitat availability increases and increases as habitat availability decreases. This data set includes a range of LRD thresholds to represent species with different dispersal abilities and responses to landscape structure. A threshold indicates the highest LRD that still allows dispersal by a particular group of species. LRD thresholds are included in the data set, with low values representing connectivity...
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Over the last half-century, grassland bird populations have declined far more than any other bird group in North America. This is because native grasslands were largely replaced with croplands, and many remaining prairies are degraded. Land managers and conservation organizations are racing to preserve and restore these ecosystems to stem further loss of grassland birds. Given limited resources, bird habitat models are needed to help managers prioritize where conservation efforts will be most effective. In addition to habitat loss and degradation from land use change, altered fire regimes, and woody encroachment, increasing greenhouse gas emissions will likely change temperatures and rainfall patterns across North...
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Prescribed burning – planned, controlled fires conducted under weather and fuel conditions designed for safety and effectiveness – is a common practice used to maintain and restore native prairies in the Northern Great Plains. However, climate change will affect the number of days in a year, and when, suitable conditions for prescribed fires occur. For instance, warmer temperatures may shift these “good prescribed-fire days” earlier in the spring and later in the fall, but uncertainty about future climate makes it hard to predict how large shifts will be and if the number of good fire days each year will generally increase or decrease. Further, it’s hard to know whether prescribed fires will continue to achieve...
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Invasions of exotic annual grasses (EAGs like cheatgrass have caused major losses of native shrubs and grasses in western U.S. rangelands. They also decrease the productivity and carbon storage in these ecosystems, which is expected to create dryer soils that may cause further losses in plant productivity. This cycle is the hallmark of desertification – or, fertile lands turning into deserts. Management actions that target EAGs are one of the most widespread land management actions taken in Western U.S. rangelands, but it is unclear which specific actions can simultaneously enhance drought resilience of native plant communities and increase carbon sequestration and storage. This project aims to identify the restoration...
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A change in wildfire regimes and the expansion of invasive grasses are degrading sagebrush ecosystems, altering wildlife habitats, and threatening property and human livelihoods. In response, land managers often treat large areas of land with fuel reduction or post-fire seeding treatments in an attempt to reduce these risks. However, the trajectories of ecosystem change following treatment are inconsistent across the sagebrush steppe. In some places, treatments are successful, leading to a decrease in invasive grasses which allows native plants to recover. In other places, treatments either have no effect or they facilitate the spread of invasive grasses. Under some climate conditions, native grasses and forbs do...
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The National Park Service (NPS) is responsible for managing livestock grazing in 94 units, and several park grazing management planning efforts are currently underway. However, there is a recognized need to update grazing management practices to address potential future effects of management practices and climate change. The goal of this project is to outline the steps required for developing NPS grazing management plans, to identify information needs and availability for these planning processes, and to initiate a scenario-based pilot project for meeting these needs at a given park unit. This will serve as an important step toward developing a transferable process to help parks ensure that grazing management practices...
map background search result map search result map Climate, Land Management and Future Wildlife Habitat in the Pacific Northwest Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Terrestrial Connectivity Across the South Central United States: Implications for the Sustainability of Wildlife Populations and Communities Understanding How Climate and Land Use Change Will Impact Wetland-Dependent Birds: Are Waterfowl Effective Surrogates for Other Species? Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Forecasting Resource Availability for Wildlife Populations in Desert Grasslands under Future Climate Extremes Wildfire Probability Mapping Based on Regional Soil Moisture Models Future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species in the southern Great Plains based on a scenario of future land-use change that focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view Dropped-edge analysis of terrestrial connectivity of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on the National Land Cover Database from 2006 Dropped-edge analysis of terrestrial connectivity of grassland networks in the South Central United States based on the National Land Cover Database from 2006 Integrating Climate Considerations into Grazing Management Programs in National Parks Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Incorporating USGS Web Cameras into the Phenocam Network to Enhance Scientific Understanding of Phenological Trends and Variability Trajectories of Change: How Climate, Wildfire, and Management Drive Shrubland Ecosystem Transitions Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie What Will Grassland Bird Communities Look Like Under a Changing Climate? Assessing the Impacts of Rangeland Restoration on Carbon Sequestration and Co-Benefits for Drought Resilience in the Sagebrush Steppe and Mixed Grass Prairie Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Integrating Climate Considerations into Grazing Management Programs in National Parks Climate, Land Management and Future Wildlife Habitat in the Pacific Northwest Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Trajectories of Change: How Climate, Wildfire, and Management Drive Shrubland Ecosystem Transitions Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Understanding How Climate and Land Use Change Will Impact Wetland-Dependent Birds: Are Waterfowl Effective Surrogates for Other Species? Future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species in the southern Great Plains based on a scenario of future land-use change that focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view Forecasting Resource Availability for Wildlife Populations in Desert Grasslands under Future Climate Extremes Assessing the Impacts of Rangeland Restoration on Carbon Sequestration and Co-Benefits for Drought Resilience in the Sagebrush Steppe and Mixed Grass Prairie Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie Dropped-edge analysis of terrestrial connectivity of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on the National Land Cover Database from 2006 Dropped-edge analysis of terrestrial connectivity of grassland networks in the South Central United States based on the National Land Cover Database from 2006 Wildfire Probability Mapping Based on Regional Soil Moisture Models Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains What Will Grassland Bird Communities Look Like Under a Changing Climate? Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Terrestrial Connectivity Across the South Central United States: Implications for the Sustainability of Wildlife Populations and Communities Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains Incorporating USGS Web Cameras into the Phenocam Network to Enhance Scientific Understanding of Phenological Trends and Variability