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Summary The Hydrologic Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF) was applied to the Illinois River Basin using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA) Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) system. Values of the HSPF model parameters were based on the calibrations of three representative watersheds within the basin. Over the 1985–1995 simulation period, monthly and annual mass balances correlated well with observed discharges at three gaging stations along the Illinois River. However, poor correlation of daily flows was due largely to the weakness of the HSPF model in routing dynamic flows through the complicated Illinois River system. To address this problem, a one-dimensional...
Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement (“downscaling”), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less...