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A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
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The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) makes long-term seismic hazard forecasts that are used in building codes. The hazard models usually consider only natural seismicity; non-tectonic (man-made) earthquakes are excluded because they are transitory or too small. In the past decade, however, thousands of earthquakes related to underground fluid injection have occurred in the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS), and some have caused damage. In response, the USGS is now also making short-term forecasts that account for the hazard from these induced earthquakes. A uniform earthquake catalog is assembled by combining and winnowing pre-existing source catalogs. Seismicity statistics are analyzed to develop recurrence models,...
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A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
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This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. It represents the chance of experiencing damaging earthquakes for fixed ground shaking levels that corresponds with MMI = VI. The values are obtained by averaging the probability of experiencing MMI = VI based on a peak ground acceleration value of 0.1155 g for site class D, and the probability of experiencing MMI = VI based on 1.0-second spectral acceleration value of 0.102 g for site class D. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model.
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This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. It represents the average Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) with a 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. Using a topographic-based soil classification method, the ground motions are amplified for soil type. The MMI values are the average of the MMI values obtained by converting peak ground acceleration to MMI and 1.0-second spectral response acceleration to MMI. The data are for the Western United States and are based on the long-term 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model.
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This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model.
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A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
thumbnail
The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) makes long-term seismic hazard forecasts that are used in building codes. The hazard models usually consider only natural seismicity; non-tectonic (man-made) earthquakes are excluded because they are transitory or too small. In the past decade, however, thousands of earthquakes related to underground fluid injection have occurred in the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS), and some have caused damage. In response, the USGS is now also making short-term forecasts that account for the hazard from these induced earthquakes. A uniform earthquake catalog is assembled by combining and winnowing pre-existing source catalogs. Seismicity statistics are analyzed to develop recurrence models,...
thumbnail
The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) makes long-term seismic hazard forecasts that are used in building codes. The hazard models usually consider only natural seismicity; non-tectonic (man-made) earthquakes are excluded because they are transitory or too small. In the past decade, however, thousands of earthquakes related to underground fluid injection have occurred in the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS), and some have caused damage. In response, the USGS is now also making short-term forecasts that account for the hazard from these induced earthquakes. A uniform earthquake catalog is assembled by combining and winnowing pre-existing, authoritative source catalogs. Seismicity statistics are analyzed to develop recurrence...
thumbnail
A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
thumbnail
This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. It represents the average Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) with a 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. Using a topographic-based soil classification method, the ground motions are amplified for soil type. The MMI values are the average of the MMI values obtained by converting peak ground acceleration to MMI and 1.0-second spectral response acceleration to MMI. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model.
thumbnail
A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
thumbnail
A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
thumbnail
These data sets are the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. They represent the chance of experiencing potentially damaging ground shaking for fixed ground shaking levels that corresponds with MMI = VI. The values are obtained by averaging the probability of experiencing MMI = VI based on a peak ground acceleration value of 0.1155 g for site class D, and the probability of experiencing MMI = VI based on 1.0-second spectral acceleration value of 0.102 g for site class D. The data are for the Western United States.
thumbnail
The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) makes long-term seismic hazard forecasts that are used in building codes. The hazard models usually consider only natural seismicity; non-tectonic (man-made) earthquakes are excluded because they are transitory or too small. In the past decade, however, thousands of earthquakes related to underground fluid injection have occurred in the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS), and some have caused damage. In response, the USGS is now also making short-term forecasts that account for the hazard from these induced earthquakes. A uniform earthquake catalog is assembled by combining and winnowing pre-existing source catalogs. Seismicity statistics are analyzed to develop recurrence models,...
thumbnail
This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2-second period with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model.
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This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Western United States and are based on the long-term 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model.
thumbnail
This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2-second period with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Western United States and are based on the long-term 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model.


map background search result map search result map Modified Mercalli Intensity based on peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Chance of damage from an earthquake in 2016 based on peak ground acceleration for the Western United States Chance of damage from an earthquake in 2016 based on horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period for the Western United States Chance of damage from an earthquake in 2017 based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States 1.0-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States 1.0-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States 0.2-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States 0.2-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Chance of potentially minor-damage ground shaking in 2018 based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Chance of potentially minor-damage ground shaking in 2018 based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration for the Western United States Chance of damage from an earthquake in 2016 based on peak ground acceleration for the Western United States Chance of damage from an earthquake in 2016 based on horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period for the Western United States 1.0-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States 0.2-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States 1.0-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States 0.2-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Chance of damage from an earthquake in 2017 based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration for the Central and Eastern United States