Filters: Tags: Journal of Hydrometeorology (X)
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The timing of snowmelt runoff (SMR) for 84 rivers in the western United States is examined to understand the character of SMR variability and the climate processes that may be driving changes in SMR timing. Results indicate that the timing of SMR for many rivers in the western United States has shifted to earlier in the snowmelt season. This shift occurred as a step change during the mid-1980s in conjunction with a step increase in spring and early-summer atmospheric pressures and temperatures over the western United States. The cause of the step change has not yet been determined. Published in Journal of Hydrometeorology, volume 6, issue 4, on pages 476 - 482, in 2009.
Temporal and spatial differences in snow-water equivalent (SWE) at 240 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) and at 500 snow course sites and a subset of 93 collocated sites were evaluated by examining the correlation of site values over the snow season, interpolating point measurements to basin volumes using hypsometry and a maximum snow extent mask, and variogram analysis. The lowest correlation at a point (r = 0.79) and largest interpolated volume differences (as much as 150 mm of SWE over the Gunnison basin) occurred during wet years (e.g., 1993). Interpolation SWE values based on SNOTEL versus snow course sites were not consistently higher or lower relative to each other. Interpolation rmse was comparable for both datasets,...
Linkages between tropical Pacific Ocean monthly climatic variables and the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) hydroclimatic variations from 1909 to 1998 are analyzed at interseasonal timescales. A study of the changes in these linkages through the years and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is also investigated. Tropical Pacific climate variations were represented by atmospheric/oceanic ENSO indicators. For the UCRB, warm season (April–September) streamflow totals at Lee’s Ferry, Arizona, and precipitation averages at different periods (cold season: October–March; warm season: April–September; and annual: October– September) were used to study the UCRB’s response to tropical Pacific climatic...
The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system, developed by the National Weather Service (NWS), uses conceptual hydrologic models and historical data to generate a set, or ensemble, of possible streamflow scenarios conditioned on the initial states of a given basin. Using this approach, simulated historical probabilistic forecasts were generated for 14 forecast points in the Colorado River basin, and the statistical properties of the ensembles were evaluated. The median forecast traces were analyzed using "traditional'' verification measures; these forecasts represented "deterministic ESP forecasts.'' The minimum-error and historical traces were examined to evaluate the median forecasts and the forecast system....
To test the accuracy of statistically downscaled precipitation estimates from numerical weather prediction models, a set of experiments to study what space and time scales are appropriate to obtain downscaled precipitation forecasts with maximum skill have been carried out. Fourteen-day forecasts from the 1998 version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model were used in this study. It has been previously found that downscaled temperature fields have significant skill even up to 5 days of forecast lead time, but there is practically no valuable skill in the downscaled precipitation forecasts. Low skill in precipitation forecasts revolves around two main issues....
Recent research has suggested that changes in temperature and precipitation events due to climate change have had a significant impact on the availability and timing of streamflow. In this study, monthly temperature and precipitation data collected over 29 climate divisions covering the entire Colorado River basin and monthly natural flow data from 29 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauge locations along the Colorado River are investigated for trend or step changes using parametric and nonparametric statistical tests. Temperature increases are persistent (at least 10 climate divisions over 6 months in trend analysis) throughout the year over the Colorado River basin, whereas precipitation only notably increased over...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation,
Journal Citation;
Tags: Journal of Hydrometeorology,
North America,
climatology,
hydrology,
regional effects,
This paper examines the accuracy of high-resolution nested mesoscale model simulations of surface climate. The nesting capabilities of the atmospheric fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)?National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to create high-resolution, 5-yr climate simulations (from 1 October 1994 through 30 September 1999), starting with a coarse nest of 20 km for the western United States. During this 5-yr period, two finer-resolution nests (5 and 1.7 km) were run over the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado. Raw and bias-corrected daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from the three MM5 nests were used as input to the...
Extreme precipitation events, and the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) associated with them, are examined. The study uses data from the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT), which conducted its first field study in California during the 2005/06 cool season. National Weather Service River Forecast Center (NWS RFC) gridded QPFs for 24-h periods at 24-h (day 1), 48-h (day 2), and 72-h (day 3) forecast lead times plus 24-h quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) fromsites in California (CA) and Oregon?Washington (OR?WA) are used. During the 172-day period studied, some sites received more than 254 cm (100 in.) of precipitation. The winter season produced many extreme precipitation events, including 90 instances...
In a water-stressed region, such as the southwestern United States, it is essential to improve current seasonal hydroclimatic predictions. Typically, seasonal hydroclimatic predictions have been conditioned by standard climate indices, for example, Ni�o-3 and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In this work, the statistically unique relationships between sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and particular basins? hydroclimates are explored. The regions where global SSTs are most correlated with the Little Colorado River and Gunnison River basins? hydroclimates are located throughout the year and at varying time lags. The SSTs, from these regions of highest correlation, are subsequently used as hydroclimatic predictors...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation,
Journal Citation;
Tags: Journal of Hydrometeorology,
North America,
Seasonal cycles,
climate variability,
hindcasts,
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