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Alien plants invade many ecosystems worldwide, often having substantial negative effects on ecosystem structure and functioning. The apparent complexity of invasions has impaired the development of a predictive framework of alien plant spread. Such a framework requires both a conceptual understanding of the ecology of invasions and appropriate modelling tools. We demonstrate, using a simple conceptual model and illustrative examples from the literature, that a predictive understanding of invasions can be established. Potential modelling tools are reviewed by categorizing models of plant spread as either simple-demographic, spatial-phenomenological or spatial-mechanistic, based on the model's data inputs and outputs....
A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species....
Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species’ range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species’ range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8175 observations of year-to-year change in...
There has been uncertainty in the national gap analysis program about including non-breeding birds in distribution models because of concerns that distributions of migrant and winter birds are difficult to predict and are not necessary to assess biodiversity patterns. New Mexico gap analysis included migrant and non-breeding birds assuming that distributions could be predicted using habitat associations, and that excluding non-breeding bird habitat from avian richness projections potentially underestimates community types important to birds. We compared biodiversity estimates including non-breeding birds (inclusive estimate - 324 species) to estimates including only breeding birds (breeding bird estimate - 257 species)...
This publication identifies areas where big sagebrush populations are most and least vulnerable to climate change and demonstrates where continued investment in sagebrush conservation and restoration could have the most impact.
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815215300621): Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models at plot and regional scale in longer timeframe (i.e. decades). We compared model predictions of aboveground carbon by one representative model of each model type (PnET-II, ED2 and LINKAGES v2.2, respectively) with field data (19–77 years) at both scales in the Central...