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In southwestern Colorado, land managers anticipate the impacts of climate change to include higher temperatures, more frequent and prolonged drought, accelerated snowmelt, larger and more intense fires, more extreme storms, and the spread of invasive species. These changes put livelihoods, ecosystems, and species at risk. Focusing on communities in southwestern Colorado’s San Juan and Gunnison river basins, this project will expand opportunities for scientists, land managers, and affected residents to identify actions that can support resilience and adaptation in the face of changing climate conditions. This project builds on the project “Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in southwestern...
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Researchers with the North Central Climate Science Center have made substantial progress in assessing the impacts of climate and land use change on wildlife and ecosystems across the region. Building on this progress, researchers will work with stakeholders to identify adaptation strategies and inform resource management in the areas that will be most affected by changing conditions. There are several components of this project. First, researchers will use the Department of Interior “resource briefs” as a mechanism to communicate information to resource managers on climate and land use change and their impacts to resources. These briefs will support coordinated management of ecosystems that contain public, private,...
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Covering 120 million acres across 14 western states and 3 Canadian provinces, sagebrush provides critical habitat for species such as pronghorn, mule deer, and sage-grouse – a species of conservation concern. The future of these and other species is closely tied to the future of sagebrush. Yet this important ecosystem has already been affected by fire, invasive species, land use conversion, and now, climate change. In the western U.S., temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing. However, there is currently a limited ability to anticipate the impacts of climate change on sagebrush. Current methods suffer from a range of weakness that limits the reliability of results. In fact, the current uncertainty...
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One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as scenario planning, in which climate models are used to identify different plausible climate conditions, known as “scenarios”, for a particular area. In a previous project, researchers with the North Central Climate Science Center worked with natural resource managers at Badlands National Park and on surrounding federal lands to model how different climate scenarios and management activities would impact the area’s resources. The model that was developed answers critical “what if” questions...
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The goal of this project was to identify climate-related scientific information needs in the North Central region that will support the management of key species and help avoid species declines. Researchers worked closely with state fish and wildlife agencies, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, tribes, and other relevant natural resource management and conservation agencies to identify priority information needs and to design and implement studies that will address these needs. Researchers identified stakeholders, including those engaged by the North Central Climate Science Center USGS Liaisons project. Researchers worked with stakeholders to identify priority conservation targets. Selected targets were those...
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In the North Central U.S., drought is a dominant driver of ecological, economic, and social stress. Drought conditions have occurred in the region due to lower precipitation, extended periods of high temperatures and evaporative demand, or a combination of these factors. This project will continue ongoing efforts to identify and address climate science challenges related to drought, climate extremes, and the water cycle that are important for natural resource managers and scientists in the North Central region, to support adaptation planning. To accomplish this goal, researchers sought to (1) provide data and synthesis on drought processes in the region and on how evaporative stress on ecosystems will change during...
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In the North Central U.S., the rate and extent of changing climate conditions has been increasing in recent decades. These changes include shifting precipitation patterns, warming temperatures, and more frequent extreme events, such as droughts and floods. As these changes occur, managers face different challenges and have different needs, depending on the resources they manage. For example, water managers are focused on responding to changes in water availability, while wildlife managers may be more concerned with changing habitat conditions – whether it be for migratory waterfowl, coldwater fish, or large mammals. In the face of these changes, managers are seeking effective strategies for managing resources....
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The U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains support a large number of native wildlife species, and survival of these populations depends on connected landscapes to support current migration and dispersal, as well as future shifts in species’ ranges. However, habitat fragmentation and loss threaten these connections. Land and wildlife managers across the U.S. are faced with decisions focused on reducing risks, like those from habitat fragmentation, to wildlife, ecosystems, and landscapes. Establishing connections between natural landscapes is a frequently recommended strategy for these managers to help wildlife adapt to changing conditions. Working in partnership with state and federal resource managers and private land...
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In the North Central U.S., temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing, with consequences ranging from more frequent and severe wildfires to prolonged drought to widespread forest pest outbreaks. As a result, land managers are becoming increasingly concerned about how climate change is affecting natural resources and the essential services they provide communities. The rates and ecological impacts of changing conditions vary across this diverse region, which stretches from the Great Plains to the High Rockies. The goal of this project was to understand how native grasslands, shrublands, and forests will respond to changing conditions. Researchers first modeled how these vegetation types have...
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Pinyon-juniper woodlands are a major part of western landscapes and are valued for recreational use, cultural resources, watershed protection, and wildlife habitats. These woodlands have been identified by several stakeholders, including natural resource management entities, federal and state agencies, and numerous tribal nations, as important ecosystems that are currently threatened by land treatments, changes in disturbance regimes such as drought and fire, and widespread tree mortality. Currently there exist competing objectives for the management of these systems, including the desire to preserve pinyon-juniper viability as climate conditions continue to shift, as well as the need to track these systems to ensure...
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Managing natural resources is fraught with uncertainties around how complex social-ecological systems will respond to management actions and other forces, such as climate. Modeling tools have emerged to help grapple with different aspects of this challenge, but they are often used independently. The purpose of this project is to link two types of commonly-used simulation models (agent-based models and state-and-transition simulation models) and streamline the handling of model inputs and outputs. This innovation will provide researchers with the capability to simulate the interactions of wildlife, vegetation, management actions, and other drivers, and thus answer questions and inform decisions about how best to...
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One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, and how climate change effects will unfold. While models can be used to predict the types of impacts that climate change might have on a landscape, uncertainty remains surrounding factors such as how quickly changes will occur and how specific resources will respond. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as scenario planning. In this approach, a subset of global climate model projections are selected that represent a range of plausible future climate scenarios for a particular area. Through a series of facilitated workshops, managers can then explore different management...
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The north-central region of the U.S. has experienced a series of extreme droughts in recent years, with impacts felt across a range of sectors. For example, the impacts of a 2002 drought are estimated to have resulted in a $3 billion loss to the agricultural sector in Nebraska and South Dakota. Meanwhile, the ecological impacts of drought in the region have included increased tree mortality, surges in the outbreak of pests, and intensifying forest fires. Located within this region is the Missouri River Basin, an important agricultural production area home to approximately 12 million people, including 28 Native American tribes. Tribal governments and multiple federal agencies manage land and natural resources in...
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The North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) is committed to bringing the best possible climate science to bear in order to inform decisions made by Department of the Interior (DOI) planners and other land and resource managers across the country. To help accomplish this mission, key partnerships have been established between the NC CSC and the DOI Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) in the North Central region of the U.S. Whereas the eight Climate Science Centers have a greater emphasis on climate science delivery, the LCCs focus more generally on defining research needs for conservation, and on science and tool delivery to support conservation outcomes. In order to help connect the landscape-scale...
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In the North Central U.S., drought is a dominant driver of ecological, economic, and social stress. Drought conditions have occurred in the region due to lower precipitation, extended periods of high temperatures and evaporative demand, or a combination of these factors. This project aimed to improve our understanding of drought in the North Central region and determine what future droughts might look like over the 21st century, as climate conditions change. Researchers evaluated, with the intent to improve, available and emerging data on climate conditions that influence drought (such as changes in temperature, precipitation, evaporative demand, snow and soil moisture), as well as datasets related to the surface...
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The Wind River Indian Reservation in west-central Wyoming is home to the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho tribes, who reside near and depend on water from the streams that feed into the Wind River. In recent years, however, the region has experienced frequent severe droughts, which have impacted tribal livelihoods and cultural activities. Scientists with the North Central Climate Science Center at Colorado State University, the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and several other university and agency partners are working closely with tribal water managers to assess how drought affects the reservation, integrating social, ecological, and hydro-climatological sciences...
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Climate change is poised to alter natural systems, the frequency of extreme weather, and human health and livelihoods. In order to effectively prepare for and respond to these challenges in the north-central region of the U.S., people must have the knowledge and tools to develop plans and adaptation strategies. This project was a continuation of an effort begun in 2013 to build stakeholders’ capacity to respond to climate change in the north-central U.S. During the course of this project, researchers focused on two major activities: Tribal Capacity Building: Researchers provided tribal colleges and universities with mini-grants to develop student projects to document climate-related changes in weather and culturally...
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A central goal of the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) is to bring together the latest data, tools, and knowledge on the impacts of climate change to the hands of the region’s natural and cultural resource managers. To meet this goal, the NC CSC implemented three sub-projects which (1) organized a workshop aimed at developing an information technology framework for data integration related to climate change impacts on ecosystems and landscape conservation; (2) evaluated data and information exchange protocols and identified analytical needs; and (3) coordinated an assessment of the impacts of climate change across the Great Plains region, which contributed to the identification of potential adaptation...
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The conversion of grassland to cropland in the Dakotas could imperil wildlife such as nesting waterfowl and contribute to the degradation of water quality in the Mississippi River watershed. However, high crop prices in recent years have contributed to a high rate of grassland to cropland conversion on private lands. In addition to these economic factors, changes in climate could exacerbate the challenge of protecting grasslands, as conditions may become more amenable to row crop production. The goal of this project was to work with grassland conservation managers to better target the use of funds allocated toward incentivizing grassland preservation in the Dakotas. Researchers identified the vulnerability of...
    map background search result map search result map Evaluating Data Needs and Capacity in the North Central Region and Coordinating an Assessment of Regional Climate Impacts Foundational Science Area: Developing Climate Change Understanding and Resources for Adaptation in the North Central U.S. Foundational Science Area: Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S. Foundational Science Area: Helping People and Nature Adapt to Climate Change in the North Central U.S. Informing Adaptation Strategies for Maintaining Landscape Connectivity for Northern Rockies Wildlife Informing the Identification of Economically Effective Targets for Grassland Conservation in the Dakotas The Wind River Indian Reservation’s Vulnerability to the Impacts of Drought and the Development of Decision Tools to Support Drought Preparedness Model-Based Scenario Planning to Inform Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Continued Capacity Building in the North-Central U.S.: Tribal Engagement and PhenoCam Analysis Building Collaboration Between the North Central CSC and Regional Partners Through Liaison Teams Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 2 Enabling Climate-Informed Planning and Decisions about Species of Conservation Concern in the North Central Region: Phase 1 Foundational Science Area: Climate Adaptation Strategies for Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S. Foundational Science Area: Maximizing Stakeholder Engagement to Support Climate Adaptation in the North Central U.S. Foundational Science Area: Ecological Drought, Climate Extremes, and the Water Cycle in the North Central U.S. Informing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in National Parks Ecology and Management of Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands: State of the Science Improving Projections of Wildlife and Landscapes for Natural Resource Managers Improving Projections of Wildlife and Landscapes for Natural Resource Managers The Wind River Indian Reservation’s Vulnerability to the Impacts of Drought and the Development of Decision Tools to Support Drought Preparedness Informing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in National Parks Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 2 Model-Based Scenario Planning to Inform Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains Foundational Science Area: Helping People and Nature Adapt to Climate Change in the North Central U.S. Informing Adaptation Strategies for Maintaining Landscape Connectivity for Northern Rockies Wildlife Informing the Identification of Economically Effective Targets for Grassland Conservation in the Dakotas Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Evaluating Data Needs and Capacity in the North Central Region and Coordinating an Assessment of Regional Climate Impacts Foundational Science Area: Developing Climate Change Understanding and Resources for Adaptation in the North Central U.S. Continued Capacity Building in the North-Central U.S.: Tribal Engagement and PhenoCam Analysis Building Collaboration Between the North Central CSC and Regional Partners Through Liaison Teams Enabling Climate-Informed Planning and Decisions about Species of Conservation Concern in the North Central Region: Phase 1 Foundational Science Area: Climate Adaptation Strategies for Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S. Foundational Science Area: Maximizing Stakeholder Engagement to Support Climate Adaptation in the North Central U.S. Foundational Science Area: Ecological Drought, Climate Extremes, and the Water Cycle in the North Central U.S. Ecology and Management of Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands: State of the Science Foundational Science Area: Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S.