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The Klamath Basin in Oregon and California is home to a rich abundance of natural and cultural resources, many of which are vulnerable to present and future climate change. Climate change also threatens traditional ways of life for tribal communities, who have deep connections to the region. This project sought to increase the effectiveness of regional climate change adaptation and planning by (1) developing ways to integrate traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) with western science in decision making, (2) building partnerships between tribal, academic, and government institutions, and (3) increasing future capacity to respond to climate change by engaging tribal youth. Through this project, the Quartz Valley...
A warming climate, fire exclusion, and land cover changes are altering the conditions that produced historical fire regimes and facilitating increased recent wildfire activity in the northwestern United States. Understanding the impacts of changing fire regimes on forest recruitment and succession, species distributions, carbon cycling, and ecosystem services is critical, but challenging across broad spatial scales. One important and understudied aspect of fire regimes is the unburned area within fire perimeters; these areas can function as fire refugia across the landscape during and after wildfire by providing habitat and seed sources. With increasing fire activity, there is speculation that fire intensity and...
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Mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) on February 20, the date of peak basin-integrated mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) for the T4 climate change scenario. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T4 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +4°C to each daily temperature record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
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UW_Olallie_photo_metadata & image files: These are the raw timelapse photographs. The date/time stamp is inaccurate for the camera deployed in the open (at the SNOTEL) due to a programming error. This timestamp is one day early (i.e., subtract 1 day from the timestamp when using these data). Also available is metadata for two timelapse cameras and their associated snow depth poles (two visible in each camera's field of view) deployed at Olallie Meadows SNOTEL during water year 2015. One camera was deployed in the open area that is the Olallie Meadows SNOTEL station (the snow pillow is in the field of view). The other camera was deployed in the adjacent forest, approximately 60 m to the southeast of the SNOTEL....
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The percentage difference between mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) on April 1 for the reference (1989-2011) climate period and mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on April 1 for the T4 climate change scenario. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T4 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +4°C to each daily temperature record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
Abstract (from http://www.nature.com/articles/srep24441): The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity...
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Data points intensively sampling 46 North American biomes were used to predict the geographic distribution of biomes from climate variables using the Random Forests classification tree. Techniques were incorporated to accommodate a large number of classes and to predict the future occurrence of climates beyond the contemporary climatic range of the biomes. Errors of prediction from the statistical model averaged 3.7%, but for individual biomes, ranged from 0% to 21.5%. In validating the ability of the model to identify climates without analogs, 78% of 1528 locations outside North America and 81% of land area of the Caribbean Islands were predicted to have no analogs among the 46 biomes. Biome climates were projected...
This recorded presentation is from the April 17, 2014 workshop for the "Integrated Scenarios of the Future Northwest Environment" project. The recording is available on YouTube. The Integrated Scenarios project is an effort to understand and predict the effects of climate change on the Northwest's climate, hydrology, and vegetation. The project was funded by the Northwest Climate Science Center and the Climate Impacts Research Consortium.
Wildfire refugia are forest patches that are minimally-impacted by fire and provide critical habitats for fire-sensitive species and seed sources for post-fire forest regeneration. Wildfire refugia are relatively understudied, particularly concerning the impacts of subsequent fires on existing refugia. We opportunistically re-visited 122 sites classified in 1994 for a prior fire refugia study, which were burned by two wildfires in 2012 in the Cascade mountains of central Washington, USA. We evaluated the fire effects for historically persistent fire refugia and compared them to the surrounding non-refugial forest matrix. Of 122 total refugial (43 plots) and non-refugial (79 plots) sites sampled following the 2012...
This management brief summarizes the results of a project evaluating the scientific body of research on climate adaptation actions relevant to ecological drought. This adaptation science assessment evaluated strategies developed and prioritized by participants at regional adaptation workshops by synthesizing supporting evidence from the literature. The brief presents findings on the benefits and limitations of these climate adaptation options from the accompanying report, Extremes to Ex-Streams: Ecological Drought Adaptation in a Changing Climate.
This dataset is a continuous parameter grid (CPG) of normal (average) annual precipitation data for the years 1981 through 2010 in the Pacific Northwest. Source precipitation data was produced by the PRISM Climate Group at Oregon State University.
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004–2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography...
Monthly temperature and precipitation data from 41 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were compared to observations for the 20th century, with a focus on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and surrounding region. A suite of statistics, or metrics, was calculated, including correlation and variance of mean seasonal spatial patterns, amplitude of seasonal cycle, diurnal temperature range, annual- to decadal-scale variance, long-term persistence, and regional teleconnections to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Performance, or credibility, was assessed based on the GCMs' abilities to reproduce the observed metrics. GCMs were ranked in their credibility using two...
These datasets are continuous parameter grids (CPG) of first-of-month snow water equivalent data for March through August, years 2004 through 2016, in the Pacific Northwest. Normal (average) first-of-month values for the same months, averaged across all years, are also located here. Source snow water equivalent data was produced by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Abstract (from SpringerOpen): Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA) have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public. This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs. Large and severe fires in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warm and dry conditions, and such...
Tribal nations have been actively engaged in efforts to understand climate risks to their natural and cultural resources, and what they can do to prepare. We have carefully selected a suite of resources that may be useful to tribes at each stage in the process of evaluating their vulnerability to climate change—from tribes just getting started to those well on their way.
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Estimates of the probability of mortality in whitebark pine from mountain pine beetles as determined from a logistic generalized additive model of the presence of mortality as functions of the number of trees killed last year, the percent whitebark pine in each cell, minimum winter temperature, average fall temperature, average April - Aug temperature, and cummulative current and previous year summer precipitation. Analysis was done at a 1 km grid cell resolution. Data are a list of points in comma separated text format. Point coordinates are the center of each 1 km grid cell.


map background search result map search result map Probability of Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle, 1997-2009, Northern Rockies Study Area Modeled snow-water-equivalent, percent difference between historical and projected April 1 values under T4 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, projected seasonal peak values under T4 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Timelapse photos at SNOTEL station, locations, and associated metadata, Ollalie Meadows, Wash., 2015 North American vegetation model data for land-use planning in a changing climate: Streamflow Permanence Probability rasters, 2004-2011, Version 2.0 (PROSPER) Timelapse photos at SNOTEL station, locations, and associated metadata, Ollalie Meadows, Wash., 2015 Modeled snow-water-equivalent, percent difference between historical and projected April 1 values under T4 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, projected seasonal peak values under T4 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Probability of Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle, 1997-2009, Northern Rockies Study Area North American vegetation model data for land-use planning in a changing climate: Streamflow Permanence Probability rasters, 2004-2011, Version 2.0 (PROSPER)