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This management brief summarizes the results of a project evaluating the scientific body of research on climate adaptation actions relevant to ecological drought. This adaptation science assessment evaluated strategies developed and prioritized by participants at regional adaptation workshops by synthesizing supporting evidence from the literature. The brief presents findings on the benefits and limitations of these climate adaptation options from the accompanying report, Extremes to Ex-Streams: Ecological Drought Adaptation in a Changing Climate.
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004–2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography...
Abstract (from SpringerOpen): Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA) have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public. This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs. Large and severe fires in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warm and dry conditions, and such...
Tribal nations have been actively engaged in efforts to understand climate risks to their natural and cultural resources, and what they can do to prepare. We have carefully selected a suite of resources that may be useful to tribes at each stage in the process of evaluating their vulnerability to climate change—from tribes just getting started to those well on their way.
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The Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (NW CASC) organizes an annual Deep Dive into an emerging climate risk. The NW CASC convenes researchers, practitioners and students to assess the state of knowledge and practice associated with managing that risk. Each Deep Dive aims to facilitate community development of an Actionable Science Agenda that outlines knowledge gaps and research needs and identifies opportunities to advance adaptation by linking science and practice. Deep Dive topics include managing western Washington wildfire risk in a changing climate, managing climate-driven post-fire vegetation transitions, and managing climate change effects on stream drying in the Northwest. To learn more about...
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Road crossings at rivers and streams can create barriers to the movement of migratory fish when they are improperly designed or constructed. Washington State is home to several threatened species of salmon and trout, including bull trout, and recovery plans for these fish include repairing or replacing culverts that currently block their passage. The state is currently looking to replace approximately 1,000 culverts at an estimated cost of $2.45 billion. As engineers re-design these culverts, which typically have a service life of 50-100 years, it will be important to consider how changing climate conditions will impact streams in the region. Climate change is projected to increase peak streamflows, and therefore...
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A rapidly changing climate and expanding human footprint is driving increased rates of landscape change in the Pacific Northwest. This makes it challenging for managers to know if and to what extent recovery goals and conservation plans for at-risk species need to be modified to account for changing habitat conditions. Addressing this challenge requires accurate, up-to-date information about landscape change and how it affects the habitat and viability of at-risk species. In addition, managers need to be alerted when trends in habitat conditions approach key ecological thresholds, in order to determine if management goals and plans need to be modified in response to these changes. The goal of this project is to...
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Scientific information about the risks of climate change to important natural and cultural resources is crucial for developing and implementing climate adaptation plans and management actions. Tools that incorporate both science and expert knowledge on adaptation actions can greatly benefit municipal, regional, and other decision makers, as they develop and implement their adaptation plans. In 2018, EcoAdapt created the Climate Change Adaptation Certification Tool, which was designed to support the implementation of climate adaptation plans. Discussions with the Washington State Interagency Climate Adaptation Network have confirmed that this tool was ideal for supporting decision making in the natural and cultural...
Abstract (from PLoS ONE): To develop effective long-term strategies, natural resource managers need to account for the projected effects of climate change as well as the uncertainty inherent in those projections. Vegetation models are one important source of projected climate effects. We explore results and associated uncertainties from the MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade crest. We compare model results for vegetation cover and carbon dynamics over the period 1895–2100 assuming: 1) unlimited wildfire ignitions versus stochastic ignitions, 2) no fire, and 3) a moderate CO2 fertilization effect versus no CO2fertilization effect. Carbon stocks decline in all scenarios,...
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The sagebrush rangelands of the Great Basin provide crucial habitat for a diversity of wildlife, including the pronghorn and the greater sage-grouse. These water-limited, highly-managed ecosystems have already been degraded by wildfires, the expansion of invasive grasses, and livestock grazing, and are expected to experience additional stress as climate and land use conditions change. Effective management of sagebrush ecosystems in the future will require the ability to understand and predict these future changes. To address this need, researchers will identify historical rates and causes of vegetation change in shrubland ecosystems, then use this information to develop potential future climate and land use scenarios...
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Within the Yurok Tribe’s territory in northwest California, tribal, public, and private land managers share the overlapping goal of promoting forests that are more resilient to climate-related disturbances through the implementation of forest treatments that are based on traditional tribal knowledge. Managers seek to understand how restoration strategies such as prescribed burning, tree harvesting, and fuel reduction can promote more resilient forests and increase the capacity of forests and human communities to adapt to extreme weather events, drought, fire, and pests and diseases. Very few existing studies of forest vulnerability and resilience have incorporated indigenous or tribal knowledge. In order to promote...
Climate change may facilitate the expansion of non-native invasive species (NIS) in aquatic and terrestrial systems. However, empirical evidence remains scarce and poorly synthesized at scales necessary for effective management. We conducted a literature synthesis to assess the state of research on the observed and predicted effects of climate change on a suite of 398 aquatic and terrestrial NIS now present in or a major threat to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA and British Columbia. Surprisingly, very few studies (n = 15) have investigated the observed effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance, spread, or impact of the focal NIS, with only five studies focusing...
Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) has increased the extent and frequency of fire and negatively affected native plant and animal species across the Intermountain West (USA). However, the strengths of association between cheatgrass occurrence or abundance and fire, livestock grazing, and precipitation are not well understood. We used 14 years of data from 417 sites across 10,000 km(2) in the central Great Basin to assess the effects of the foregoing predictors on cheatgrass occurrence and prevalence (i.e., given occurrence, the proportion of measurements in which the species was detected). We implemented hierarchical Bayesian models and considered covariates for which > 0.90 or < 0.10 of the posterior predictive mass...
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The Northwest and North Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers (NW and NC CASCs) work in partnership with regional natural resource management communities to provide high priority science information and products needed for climate adaptation. In parallel with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Region 6, the NW and NC CASCs prioritize science to inform sagebrush steppe and grassland ecosystem conservation, emphasizing the application of climate adaptation strategies that support at-risk populations and human-ecological communities within these ecosystems. To improve their ability to deliver effective and actionable science, the NW and NC CASCs must continually engage with regional partners and stakeholders...
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Climate change threatens many wildlife species across the Pacific Northwest. As the climate continues to change, wildlife managers are faced with the ever-increasing challenge of allocating scarce resources to conserve at-risk species, and require more information to prioritize sites for conservation. However, climate change will affect species differently in different places. In fact, some places may serve as refuges for wildlife—places where animals can remain or to which they can easily move to escape the worst impacts of climate change. Currently, different datasets exist for identifying these resilient landscapes, known as climate refugia, but they are often not readily useable by wildlife managers. To address...
As the Earth’s climate changed in the ancient past, many species moved across the landscape to track adequate environmental conditions. Some species took shelter in remaining pockets of suitable climates, referred to as refugia. For example, refugia harbored species when vast glaciers covered much of the land, allowing them to survive and migrate again across the landscape as temperatures warmed and ice melted. Modern changes in climate are similarly compelling species to move, and some of those species may seek shelter from increasingly hostile conditions in refugia. Modern climate refugia will likely take many different forms. For example, larger-scale macrorefugia may be areas of relative climate stability that...
This fact sheet was prepared by Jessica Halofsky, David Peterson and Brian Harvey, University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences. Editorial assistance from Patti Loesche and Darcy Widmayer. Funding for this work provided by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center. This fact sheets goes with the following synthesis paper: https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-019-0062-8.
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Surface-water availability has been identified as one of the biggest issues facing society in the 21st century. Where and when water is on the landscape can have profound impacts on the economy, wildlife behavior, recreational use, industrial practices, energy development, and many other aspects of life, society, and the environment. Projections indicate that surface-water availability will be generally reduced in the future because of multiple factors including climate change, increased drought frequency and severity, and altered water and land use. Thus, it is important resource managers understand which areas are most vulnerable to reduced water availability impacts, and to what extent current conditions may...
Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges on natural and cultural resource management and conservation practice. Resource managers and conservation planners are addressing these challenges by revising current plans and practices with increased attention on potential climate impacts to natural resources, communities, and socioeconomic values to better meet long-term goals. However, decision-making is complicated by uncertainty in terms of which adaptation actions are best suited for different implementation conditions and supported by scientific evidence (Sutherland et al. 2004; Cook et al. 2009; Eriksen et al. 2011; Bayliss et al. 2012; Cross et al. 2012). The purpose of this and other EcoAdapt adaptation...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Altered climate and changing fire regimes are synergistically impacting forest communities globally, resulting in deviations from historical norms and creation of novel successional dynamics. These changes are particularly important when considering the stability of a keystone species such as quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), which contributes critical ecosystem services across its broad North American range. As a relatively drought intolerant species, projected changes of altered precipitation timing, amount, and type (e.g. snow or rain) may influence aspen response to fire, especially in moisture-limited and winter precipitation-dominated portions of its range. Aspen is...
map background search result map search result map Supporting Climate-Resilient Design for In-Stream Restoration and Fish Passage Projects Climate Refugia and Resilience Atlas: Identifying Priority Areas for Conserving Species of Concern in a Changing Climate Identifying Historical Drivers of Vegetation Change to Inform Future Management of Federal Lands in the Northern Great Basin An Alert System for Managing At-Risk Species in Cascadia under Climate Change Promoting Resilience and Adaptive Capacity of Forests and Tribal Communities in Northern California Developing a Climate Adaptation Checklist to Inform Natural Resource Management NW CASC Deep Dives: Actionable Science Agendas for Emerging Climate Risks Development of a Surface Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) Database to Assess Surface Water Availability for Ecohydrological Refugia Partnerships to Inform Climate Adaptation and Natural Resource Management in the Northwest and North Central U.S. Identifying Historical Drivers of Vegetation Change to Inform Future Management of Federal Lands in the Northern Great Basin Promoting Resilience and Adaptive Capacity of Forests and Tribal Communities in Northern California Supporting Climate-Resilient Design for In-Stream Restoration and Fish Passage Projects NW CASC Deep Dives: Actionable Science Agendas for Emerging Climate Risks Climate Refugia and Resilience Atlas: Identifying Priority Areas for Conserving Species of Concern in a Changing Climate Development of a Surface Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) Database to Assess Surface Water Availability for Ecohydrological Refugia Developing a Climate Adaptation Checklist to Inform Natural Resource Management An Alert System for Managing At-Risk Species in Cascadia under Climate Change Partnerships to Inform Climate Adaptation and Natural Resource Management in the Northwest and North Central U.S.