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Changing climate conditions such as increasing droughts, floods, and wildfires, hotter temperatures, declining snowpacks, and changes in the timing of seasonal events are already having an impact on wildlife and their habitats. In order to make forward-looking management decisions that consider ongoing and future projected changes in climate, managers require access to climate information that can be easily integrated into the planning process. Co-production, a process whereby scientists work closely with managers to identify and fill knowledge gaps, is an effective means of ensuring that science results will be directly useful to managers. Through a multi-phase project, researchers are implementing co-production...
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Forests are of tremendous ecological and economic importance. They provide natural places for recreation, clean drinking water, and important habitats for fish and wildlife. However, the warmer temperatures and harsher droughts in the west that are related to climate change are causing die-offs of many trees. Outbreaks of insects, like the mountain pine beetle, that kill trees are also more likely in warmer, drier conditions. To maintain healthy and functioning forest ecosystems, one action forest managers can take is to make management decisions that will help forests adapt to future climate change. However, adaptation is a process based on genetic change and few tools are currently available for managers to use...
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In this proposal we investigate how tree selection at the local scale affects biodiversity and ecosystem services (Obj. 1). We then look regionally to determine the extent to which trees in cities can be used to predict heat-related threats to rural forests (Obj. 2). We will leverage ongoing investigations of heat-related stress and pest outbreaks in urban and rural forests to develop management recommendations for both systems. These ongoing projects provide a knowledge-base, infrastructure (e.g. study sites), equipment (e.g. Li-Cor Photosynthesis System), and outreach opportunities that will extend the impact of this project (see Synergistic and Future Funding section below). We will also convene a working group...
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Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. In this study, we compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability....
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Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and spawning, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes and migratory...
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Habitat fragmentation, modification, and loss have been implicated in the decline of many species, including more than 85% of those considered threatened or endangered. Therefore, connectivity, or the ability of organisms to move among habitat patches, is a critical component of landscape health. In addition to influencing the sustainability of wildlife populations and communities, connectivity also contributes to the availability of ecosystem services. The goal of this project was to evaluate terrestrial connectivity across the South Central United States, with a focus on the impact of projected climate and land use changes. The researchers addressed this goal using a variety of approaches, including evaluating...
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A large portion of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean; however, our coasts are also home to many fish, wildlife, and plant species that are important for recreation, tourism, local economies, biodiversity, and healthy coastal ecosystems. Coastal habitats also provide protective ecosystem services to human communities, which are increasingly at risk to storms and sea level rise under future climate change. Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. In a collaborative project between the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative...
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Climate change will have sweeping impacts across the Northeast, yet there are key gaps in our understanding about whether species will be able to adapt to this changing environment. Results from this project will illuminate local and region-wide changes in forest ecosystems by studying the red-backed salamander, a species that is a strong indicator of forest conditions. This study identified habitat and forest characteristics that improve the resiliency of forest dwelling amphibians and other wildlife to climate change. Further, by studying a foundational species in forest floor ecosystems, the scientists can use the information to make inferences about rare and declining species. The researchers studied multiple...
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Coral reefs are some of the most biologically rich and economically valuable ecosystems in the world. They provide food, fishing, and recreation opportunities for millions of people, protect coastlines from storms, and shelter thousands of plant and animal species. However, climate change is contributing to the degradation of coral reefs in two significant ways: warming temperature and increasing acidification of ocean waters. Scientists are actively working to gather more specific information about how these factors will impact coral reef ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to identify differences in climate vulnerability among three important reef-building coral species in the Florida Keys. Researchers...
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Natural resource managers are confronted with the pressing challenge to develop conservation plans that address complex ecological and societal needs against the backdrop of a rapidly changing climate. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) provide valuable information that helps guide management and conservation actions in this regard. An essential component to CCVAs is understanding adaptive capacity, or the ability of a species to cope with or adjust to climate change. However, adaptive capacity is the least understood and evaluated component of CCVAs. This is largely due to a fundamental need for guidance on how to assess adaptive capacity and incorporate this information into conservation planning...
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Invasive species have increasingly severe consequences for ecosystems and human communities alike. The ecological impacts of invasive species are often irreversible, and include the loss of native species and the spread of disease. Implications for human communities include damaged water transportation systems, reduced crop yields, reduced forage quality for livestock, and widespread tree death - which can lead to increases in wildfire and loss of biodiversity. Changing climate conditions may facilitate the spread of invasive species, making this a key management and conservation concern across the United States. This project will synthesize what we know about how climate change impacts the spread of invasive...
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As the climate continues to change, vulnerable wildlife species will need management strategies to help them adapt to these changes. One specific management strategy is based on the idea that in certain locations, climate conditions will remain suitable for species to continue to inhabit into the future. These locations are known as climate “refugia”. In contrast, other locations may become too hot, dry, or wet for species to continue to inhabit. When wildlife managers are considering protecting land for vulnerable species, it can be helpful for them to understand where these climate refugia are located, so that they can be prioritized for conservation. However, most tools used by resource managers to manage these...
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The southeastern U.S. is home to more than half of the animal and plant species that are being reviewed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to determine if they are threatened or endangered due to losses or changes in habitat. The longleaf pine ecosystem, which is native to the southeastern U.S., supports several animal species that are considered a priority to be reviewed, based on significant threats, how much knowledge we have about the species, and opportunities for conserving them. These include the gopher tortoise, striped newt, gopher frog, southern hognose snake, and Florida pine snake. This ecosystem also supports a large number of priority plants. State wildlife agencies in the Southeast are...
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Every 10 years, state fish and wildlife management agencies must comprehensively review, and if necessary revise, their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs). These are important planning documents that serve as blueprints for conserving fish, wildlife, and their habitat, and for preventing species listings in each state. These plans focus on species that have been identified as being of greatest conservation need, but also address the full array of wildlife and wildlife-related issues in a state. States last reviewed and revised their SWAPs in 2015, and will do so again in 2025. In 2016-2017, the Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) synthesized the 14 SWAP reports from the Northeast region....
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Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as springtime flowering or migrations between summer and winter habitats, that are often strongly controlled by changes in environmental conditions, including climate. Because species interact, shifts in one species’ phenology can have cascading effects throughout entire food webs and ecosystems. Recent advances have helped grow the body of literature surrounding phenology. We now know, for example, that invasive species often show greater flexibility in the timing of their phenological events, enabling them to outcompete native species as climate and environmental conditions change. Natural resource managers recognize that changes in phenology...
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The impacts of climate change are widespread and accelerating. As natural resource managers are tasked with maintaining and protecting species and ecosystems, options for minimizing the impacts of climate change are needed. One option for climate adaptation focuses on resistance, which seeks to preserve, as much as possible, the historical structure, composition, and function of an ecosystem in the face of changing climate conditions. One of the primary resistance strategies is to identify and conserve what are known as climate change refugia. These refugia represent areas that remain relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time and therefore enable the persistence of valued physical, ecological,...
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The Mediterranean ecosystems of southern California are some of the most ecologically diverse systems in the world. The diversity of plants and animals, as well as high rates of endemism, make the area a biodiversity hotspot. High diversity in plant and animal species contributes greatly to the health and productivity of ecosystems, and plays an important role in the local and state economy (e.g. tourism, food crops, etc.). San Diego County's complex topography, highly variable precipitation and climate play a large role in determining the biology of the region. Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns due to climate change would alter the region's climate and add to other stressors such as habitat fragmentation...
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Whitebark pine is a high-elevation, important tree species that provides critical habitat for wildlife and supplies valued ecosystem services. These trees currently face multiple threats, including attack by the mountain pine beetle, which has recently killed whitebark pines over much of the western U.S. Climate is an important factor in these outbreaks, and future warming is expected to affect epidemics. Our project developed statistical models of outbreaks in whitebark pine for three regions: the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, the Northern U.S. Rocky Mountains, and the Cascade Range. We used these models to understand climate/beetle outbreak relationships, evaluate climatic causes of recent outbreaks, and estimate...
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The northeastern U.S. is highly exposed to climate change; in fact, the rate of change is higher than most places on earth (Karmalkar and Bradley 2017). The forests of the Northeast CASC region, and the wildlife that inhabit them, are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In particular, the boreal forests, a biome that reaches from Alaska to the Northeast, and the northern hardwoods, including sugar maple and paper birch, are expected to be intolerant of climate warming. Likewise, many of the birds, mammals, amphibians, fish, and insects that inhabit these forest ecosystems are at their southern range edges here and are considered sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, local species’ adaptive capacity...
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The objective of this study was to determine why certain stream insects tend to be found in certain temperature ranges. Many federal, state and local agencies use stream insects to monitor the health of freshwater ecosystems. While the temperature ranges for some insects are often inferred from the temperature of the waters where they were collected, this inference is coarse at best and problematic at worst. Stream temperatures fluctuate a lot during the year and temperature may or may not control where an insect lives. Field insects were collected and sent to a laboratory for testing several temperature endpoints, particularly at higher temperatures. Respiration, breathing rate, and some physical activities were...
map background search result map search result map Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks and Subsequent Threats to Whitebark Pine Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Identification and Laboratory Validation of Temperature Tolerance for Macroinvertebrates: Developing Vulnerability Prediction Tools Impact of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Growth of Reef-Building Corals Terrestrial Connectivity Across the South Central United States: Implications for the Sustainability of Wildlife Populations and Communities Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Providing Science for the Conservation of Animals in the Southeastern Longleaf Pine Ecosystem Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County Enabling Climate-Informed Planning and Decisions about Species of Conservation Concern in the North Central Region: Phase 2 Increasing the Resilience and Resistance of Climate-Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems Assessing Climate Change Threats and Adaptation Strategies in Northeast State Wildlife Action Plans Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs Developing A National Framework for Incorporating Climate Change Refugia into Conservation and Adaptation Planning Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks and Subsequent Threats to Whitebark Pine Impact of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Growth of Reef-Building Corals Providing Science for the Conservation of Animals in the Southeastern Longleaf Pine Ecosystem Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs Assessing Climate Change Threats and Adaptation Strategies in Northeast State Wildlife Action Plans Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. Enabling Climate-Informed Planning and Decisions about Species of Conservation Concern in the North Central Region: Phase 2 Terrestrial Connectivity Across the South Central United States: Implications for the Sustainability of Wildlife Populations and Communities Identification and Laboratory Validation of Temperature Tolerance for Macroinvertebrates: Developing Vulnerability Prediction Tools Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Increasing the Resilience and Resistance of Climate-Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Developing A National Framework for Incorporating Climate Change Refugia into Conservation and Adaptation Planning