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Strong indicators of species’ sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability to climate change are provided by changes in phenology, the timing of recurring life events (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003). We possess poor information on climate induced shifts in phenology of marine organisms, especially top predators. The Gulf of Maine (GOM) Seasonal Migrants Project is an ongoing effort to determine the phenological changes occurring in the GOM across marine mammals, sea turtles, and other marine species of conservation concern. As part of that study, stranding data of injured or dead animals was explored for its utility to serve as supplemental data to amend more traditional survey data where observations are...
New study offers insights to minimize projected climate impacts through proactive land-management activities.
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Climate in the southeastern U.S. is predicted to be changing at a slower rate than other parts of North America. However, land use change associated with urbanization is having a significant effect on wildlife populations and habitat availability. We sought to understand the effect of global warming on both beneficial and pest insects of trees. We used urban warming as a proxy for global warming as many cities have already warmed as much, due to heat island effects, as they are expected to warm due to climate change by 2050 or even 2100. We were able to develop good predictive models of how warming influences beneficial and pest insects for cities in the Southeast and across the east coast more generally. We were...
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Urbanization in the Southeast U.S. is among the fastest in the nation, and represents a primary threat to threatened and endangered species. As urbanized areas expand, they are encroaching on preserved areas, like national wildlife refuges, and are dividing forests into smaller fragments. Forests that are located next to cities and suburbs are exposed to high temperatures, pollution, insect pests, invasive plants, and other factors that threaten forest health. However, forests located within urban and suburban areas – “urban forests” are capable of supporting diverse plant and animal life, and could play an increasingly important role in conservation as urbanization continues. Little is currently known about how...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112717303249): Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests have been extensive and severe. Understanding the climate influences on these outbreaks is essential for developing management plans that account for potential future mountain pine beetle outbreaks, among other threats, and informing listing decisions under the Endangered Species Act. Prior research has focused on one geographic region, but geographic variability in beetle and tree physiological responses to climate conditions have been documented. Here we evaluate geographic variability in climate influences on recent beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine and estimate...
Across the Northeast, 14 States’ Wildlife Action Plans have identified climate change as one of the top five threats to fish and wildlife and their habitats. They further indicate that climate change exacerbates the other four priority threat impacts of pollution, disease, invasive species, and development in the region. This project aims to provide the information and tools to state fish and wildlife agencies to help them address this formidable challenge by working with the NE CASC to fill important data gaps and inform development and implementation of effective fish and wildlife adaptation strategies. Recent surveys show that state fish and wildlife agencies across the nation lack the resources (funding and...
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Since time immemorial, the nearshore habitats of the Salish Sea, the shared estuarine waters between coastal British Columbia and Washington State, have provided crucial habitats for many culturally important species: nursery areas for Dungeness crab, critical juvenile rearing areas for migrating Pacific salmon, and sedimentary deltas laden with clams and oysters. Together these animals form the basis of indigenous Salish People’s food sovereignty and help define their way of life. Yet today, these resources are at risk from the invasive European green crab (EGC), which was brought to the area under oceanic conditions exacerbated by climate change and is thriving due to the crabs’ ability to quickly adapt. The EGC...
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Native mussels are in precipitous decline across North America. As part of the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation’s (CTUIR) First Foods management framework that places significant value on the cultural importance of traditional food resources, they have been identified as a top conservation priority in the Pacific Northwest. Freshwater mussels are a vital component of river ecosystems, a historic food resource, and were used for adornment, jewelry, tools, and trade. Yet, little is known about the basic biology and ecology of these organisms, including where they are, how many of them remain, and what habitat characteristics (e.g., water temperature, flow, etc.) are important to them. There is...
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The Monarch’s View of a City project will lay the groundwork for design principles to guide the development, testing and deployment of future urban conservation for the Monarch butterfly across the Eastern half of the country. This strategy will need to reflect an integrated and interdisciplinary approach, one that includes ecological and social dimensions specific to an urban landscape. Pilot design projects at various scales in at least two cities will advance the state of science for developing landscape conservation design (LCD) guidelines for monarch butterfly conservation in urban areas as described below. While the ETPBR LCC, working through US Fish & Wildlife Service staff, will select cities and manage...
With the extensive loss and fragmentation of most native habitats, connectivity has become increasingly important for sustaining wildlife populations and communities. Connectivity can be defined as the extent to which the landscape facilitates or impedes the movement of organisms among patches of habitat. The goal of this project was to evaluate terrestrial connectivity across the South Central United States. We addressed this goal using a variety of approaches, including evaluating connectivity of major habitats (grasslands and forests), predicting future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species under future land-use change scenarios, assessing terrestrial vertebrate diversity in relation to habitat...
This dataset addresses the question of how future shifts in the climate and land use patterns of the South Central United States are likely to affect the distributions of important species and habitat crucial to the conservation of wildlife. It also addresses the integration of knowledge on climate change effects into management strategies and policy by enhancing the functionality of decision support systems (DSS; i.e., CHATs). CHATs are being designed for states across the western U.S. to facilitate landscape-scale conservation, project planning, and climate adaptation and are intended for use by decision-makers at all levels of government. Climate change, and its effects on individual species and biological communities,...
Abstract (from RMetS): The cumulative distribution function transform (CDFt) downscaling method has been used widely to provide local‐scale information and bias correction to output from physical climate models. The CDFt approach is one from the category of statistical downscaling methods that operates via transformations between statistical distributions. Although numerous studies have demonstrated that such methods provide value overall, much less effort has focused on their performance with regard to values in the tails of distributions. We evaluate the performance of CDFt‐generated tail values based on four distinct approaches, two native to CDFt and two of our own creation, in the context of a “Perfect Model”...
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Scientists and resource managers are in need of a better understanding of the status and trends of wildlife species and the vulnerability of these species to climate change. Effective prioritization of species and habitats for climate adaptation, endangered species management, and recreational and cultural hunting and fishing will require development, testing, and application of comprehensive strategies for conducting climate change vulnerability assessments. This project aims to build and test a method for more consistently assessing species vulnerability to climate change on a national scale. Project researchers will develop an indicator of species vulnerability that can be applied nationwide to support a...
Abstract (from http://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_gradthes/2396/): Many effects of a changing climate for organisms, communities, and ecosystems are already apparent. Less studied are the effects of increases in temperature on species interactions. While warming may potentially disrupt interactions among species, species interactions may also mediate individual species responses to ongoing climatic change. In this experiment we manipulated temperature in field-based, open-top chambers for three years to examine the relationship between biotic interactions and climatic warming on the population dynamics of seedlings of Quercus alba. We investigated the effect of warming on rates of insect herbivory on Q. alba seedlings....
Coral reefs are degrading on a global scale, and rates of reef-organism calcification are predicted to decline due to ocean warming and acidification. Systematic measurements of calcification over space and time are necessary to detect change resulting from environmental stressors. We established a network of calcification monitoring stations at four managed reefs along the outerFlorida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT) from Miami to the Dry Tortugas. Eighty colonies (in two sequential sets of 40) of the reef-building coral, Siderastrea siderea, were transplanted to fixed apparatus that allowed repetitive detachment for buoyant weighing every 6 months. Algal-recruitment tiles were also deployed during each weighing interval...
New research from North Carolina State University finds that urban warming reduces growth and photosynthesis in city trees. The researchers found that insect pests are part of the problem, but that heat itself plays a more significant role.
Effects of climate warming on wild populations of organisms are expected to be greatest at higher latitudes, paralleling greater anticipated increases in temperature in these regions. Yet, these expectations assume that populations in different regions are equally susceptible to the effects of warming. This is unlikely to be the case. Here, we develop a series of predictive models for physiological thermal tolerances in ants based on current and future climates. We found that tropical ants have lower warming tolerances, a metric of susceptibility to climate warming, than temperate ants despite greater increases in temperature at higher latitudes. Using climatic, ecological and phylogenetic data, we refine our predictions...
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The North Carolina Natural and Working Lands Action Plan, part of the North Carolina Climate Risk Assessment and Resilience Plan, was created in response to Executive Order 80 to identify opportunities for North Carolina’s natural and working lands (NWL), including farms, forests, and wetlands, to sequester carbon, support ecosystem and community resilience, and enhance the state’s economy. In collaboration with the North Carolina’s Natural and Working Lands stakeholder group, the Nicholas Institute helped to develop maps and recommendations for the Natural and Working Lands Action Plan (PDF) related to managing lands in the state to enhance these benefits. Opportunity maps identified the geographic scope of many...
map background search result map search result map Tree Eaters: Predicting the Response of Herbivores to the Integrated Effects of Urban and Global Change A Monarch’s View of Urban Landscapes: Pilot City Design Projects Effects of Urbanization on the Conservation Value of Forests Developing an Indicator of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change to Support a Consistent Nationwide Approach to Assessing Vulnerability Maximizing Trap Efficiency on Lummi Nation Estuarine Habitats to Reduce Ecosystem Impacts from Invasive European Green Crab Native and Invasive Bivalves in the Pacific Northwest: Co-occurrence, Habitat Associations and Potential Competition in the Face of Climate Change Natural and Working Lands Planning in North Carolina Maximizing Trap Efficiency on Lummi Nation Estuarine Habitats to Reduce Ecosystem Impacts from Invasive European Green Crab Natural and Working Lands Planning in North Carolina Native and Invasive Bivalves in the Pacific Northwest: Co-occurrence, Habitat Associations and Potential Competition in the Face of Climate Change A Monarch’s View of Urban Landscapes: Pilot City Design Projects Effects of Urbanization on the Conservation Value of Forests Developing an Indicator of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change to Support a Consistent Nationwide Approach to Assessing Vulnerability Tree Eaters: Predicting the Response of Herbivores to the Integrated Effects of Urban and Global Change