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Natural resource managers are confronted with the pressing challenge to develop conservation plans that address complex ecological and societal needs against the backdrop of a rapidly changing climate. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) provide valuable information that helps guide management and conservation actions in this regard. An essential component to CCVAs is understanding adaptive capacity, or the ability of a species to cope with or adjust to climate change. However, adaptive capacity is the least understood and evaluated component of CCVAs. This is largely due to a fundamental need for guidance on how to assess adaptive capacity and incorporate this information into conservation planning...
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Invasive species have increasingly severe consequences for ecosystems and human communities alike. The ecological impacts of invasive species are often irreversible, and include the loss of native species and the spread of disease. Implications for human communities include damaged water transportation systems, reduced crop yields, reduced forage quality for livestock, and widespread tree death - which can lead to increases in wildfire and loss of biodiversity. Changing climate conditions may facilitate the spread of invasive species, making this a key management and conservation concern across the United States. This project will synthesize what we know about how climate change impacts the spread of invasive...
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The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) seek to enhance scientific understanding of how climate trends and variability are linked to phenology across spatial scales, with the ultimate goal of being able to understand and predict climate impacts on natural resources. A key step towards achieving this long-term goal is connecting local observations (individual plants or animals) of phenology with those at regional to continental scales (10 km to 10,000 km), which may ultimately be used to better understand phenology across ecosystems and landscapes and thereby inform natural resource management. The specific shorter-term goals of this effort are to process...
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The pine rockland ecosystem is found only in south Florida and the Bahamas and provides important habitat for numerous rare and endemic plants and animals. These include 18 species that are already federally listed as threatened or endangered and four other species petitioned for listing that are scheduled for development of Species Status Assessments (SSAs). Today, south Florida’s pine rockland ecosystem represents less than 3 percent of its original extent. Threats such as saltwater intrusion from hurricanes and sea-level rise pose the greatest risk to the longevity of this ecosystem. For the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to make decisions about the potential listing of a species, they must be able to forecast...
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Climate in the southeastern U.S. is predicted to be changing at a slower rate than other parts of North America; however, land use change associated with urbanization is having a significant effect on wildlife populations and habitat availability. We sought to understand the effect of global warming on both beneficial and pest insects of trees. We used urban warming as a proxy for global warming in as much as many cities have already warmed as much, due to heat island effects, as they are expected to warm due to climate change by 2050 or even 2100. We were able to develop good predictive models of how warming influences beneficial and pest insects for cities in the Southeast and across the east coast more generally....
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As the climate continues to change, vulnerable wildlife species will need management strategies to help them adapt to these changes. One specific management strategy is based on the idea that in certain locations, climate conditions will remain suitable for species to continue to inhabit into the future. These locations are known as climate “refugia”. In contrast, other locations may become too hot, dry, or wet for species to continue to inhabit. When wildlife managers are considering protecting land for vulnerable species, it can be helpful for them to understand where these climate refugia are located, so that they can be prioritized for conservation. However, most tools used by resource managers to manage these...
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Amphibians in the US Caribbean, like the well-known coquí frog, are particularly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Coquí frogs are represented by 17 species across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands and include several mountainous and coastal species that are threatened by extreme heat and drying, loss of coastal freshwater marshes through saltwater intrusion, or both. Over the past decade, the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center has invested in several scientific investigations to understand how global climate change is likely to affect the local climate of the US Caribbean and how sensitive different coquí species are to changes in local climate and habitat conditions in Puerto Rico. This project...
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In the Southeast, where rapid human development is increasingly dividing natural areas, habitat fragmentation and loss threaten the health and even genetic viability of wildlife populations, and interrupt migration routes. Climate change is projected to exacerbate fragmentation by further disrupting landscapes. To make matters worse, it is also expected to shift the range of many species, forcing animals capable of adapting by moving to expand into new areas to find more suitable temperatures and adequate food supplies – a challenge made difficult, if not impossible, by disconnected landscapes. Maintaining connectivity between habitats is a key strategy for conserving wildlife populations into the future, and sound...
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There are significant investments by states and resource agencies in the northeast U.S. for invasive aquatic species monitoring and management. These investments in jurisdictional waters help maintain their use for drinking, industry, and recreation. It is essential to understand the risks from invasive species, because once established, species can be costly to society and difficult or impossible to control. Identifying which species are most likely to move into a new region and cause harmful impacts can aid in preventing introductions and establishment. This is especially important in response to climate change as habitats potentially become usable to previously range-restricted species. Currently, hundreds...
Abstract: Freshwater mussels are among the most imperiled faunal groups globally, and relevant ecological information is urgently needed to guide their management and conservation in the face of global change. We explored the influence of species traits, host fishes, and habitat at three spatial scales (micro-, reach-, and catchment-scale) on the detection and occupancy of 14 species of freshwater mussels in the Tar River basin, North Carolina. Detection probability for all species was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.36 –0.47) with no species- or site-specific detection effects identified. Mean occupancy probability among species ranged from 0.04 (95% CI, 0.01 – 0.16) for Alasmidonta undulata, an undescribed Lampsilis sp., and...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12919/abstract;jsessionid=64EF530762E939D509B9B308CD377394.f03t04): Anthropogenic climate change has altered temperate forest phenology, but how these trends will play out in the future is controversial. We measured the effect of experimental warming of 0.6–5.0 °C on the phenology of a diverse suite of 11 plant species in the deciduous forest understory (Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA) in a relatively warm year (2011) and a colder year (2013). Our primary goal was to dissect how temperature affects timing of spring budburst, flowering, and autumn leaf coloring for functional groups with different growth habits, phenological niches, and xylem anatomy....
The research field of animal and plant symbioses is advancing from studying interactions between two species to whole communities of associates. High-throughput sequencing of microbial communities supports multiplexed sampling for statistically robust tests of hypotheses about symbiotic associations. We focus on ambrosia beetles, the increasingly damaging insects primarily associated with fungal symbionts, which have also been reported to support bacteria. To analyze the diversity, composition, and specificity of the beetles’ prokaryotic associates, we combine global sampling, insect anatomy, 454 sequencing of bacterial rDNA, and multivariate statistics to analyze prokaryotic communities in ambrosia beetle mycangia,...
Abstract from Journal of Applied Ecology: Urban forests provide important ecosystem services to city residents, including pollution removal and carbon storage. Climate change and urbanization pose multiple threats to these services. However, how these threats combine to affect urban trees, and thus how to mitigate their effects, remains largely untested because multi-factorial experiments on mature trees are impractical. We used a unique urban warming experiment paired with a laboratory chamber experiment to determine how three of the most potentially damaging factors associated with global change for urban and rural trees—warming, drought, and insect herbivory—affect growth of Quercus phellos(willow oak), the...
Abstract (from Nature Climate Change): Understanding global change processes that threaten species viability is critical for assessing vulnerability and deciding on appropriate conservation actions1. Here we combine individual-based2 and metapopulation models to estimate the effects of climate change on annual breeding productivity and population viability up to 2100 of a common forest songbird, the Acadian flycatcher (Empidonax virescens), across the Central Hardwoods ecoregion, a 39.5-million-hectare area of temperate and broadleaf forests in the USA. Our approach integrates local-scale, individual breeding productivity, estimated from empirically derived demographic parameters that vary with landscape and climatic...
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In the Northern Rockies, the annual area burned by wildfires has risen sharply in recent decades and is expected to continue growing. As a result, burned forests increasingly comprise a significant portion of the land base. However, burned areas represent a difficult paradox for land managers, especially in the context of other climate-linked disturbances (e.g., droughts, bark beetle outbreaks) that are also on the rise and may compound initial fire-induced stressors. While, burned areas have experienced major recent changes that may decrease their resilience to subsequent, compounding stressors, fire-induced changes can also lead to longer-term increases in resilience. The evolving landscape conditions triggered...
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Estimates of weather suitability for the occurrence of mortality in whitebark pine from mountain pine beetles as determined from a logistic generalized additive model of the presence of mortality as functions of the number of trees killed last year, the percent whitebark pine in each cell, minimum winter temperature, average fall temperature, average April - Aug temperature, and cummulative current and previous year summer precipitation. Analysis was done at a 1 km grid cell resolution. Weather suitability index was calculated by summing the weather terms in the model. Calculated for 1991 through 2009 based on 800 meter PRISM weather data. Data are a list of points in comma separated text format. Point coordinates...
Abstract (from Ecography): Climate change vulnerability assessments are an important tool for understanding the threat that climate change poses to species and populations, but do not generally yield insight into the spatial variation in vulnerability throughout a species’ habitat. We demonstrate how to adapt the method of ecological‐niche factor analysis (ENFA) to objectively quantify aspects of species sensitivity to climate change. We then expand ENFA to quantify aspects of exposure and vulnerability to climate change as well, using future projections of global climate models. This approach provides spatially‐explicit insight into geographic patterns of vulnerability, relies only on readily‐available spatial...
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These 1830 maps contain projected current and future change in habitat suitability for 366 species under the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM 3.1) and Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HADCM3). In support of the Pacific Northwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (www.climatevulnerability.org), we developed a method to model habitat suitability in which we built correlative climate suitability models for 366 terrestrial animal species at a relatively coarse spatial resolution for the entire North American continent using species range maps and 23 bioclimatic variables. We then applied the models to both current and projected future climate data downscaled to a moderately fine resolution...
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Moloka‘i has great wetland restoration potential in Hawaiʻi, but most remaining sites are highly degraded. The future of several endangered waterbirds and insects relies on restoring coastal wetland habitat that is resilient under sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Currently, managers lack background data on Molokaʻi to prioritize sites for restoration. In this project, Researchers will develop a comprehensive dataset and create a prioritization plan for coastal wetland restoration. The team will work closely with project partners and stakeholders to develop a well-vetted plan to support endangered species and meeting community needs. Existing maps and spatial data about the Molokaʻi landscape will be compiled...
Abstract: Rising environmental temperatures result from changes in land use and global climate and can cause significant shifts in the composition and distribution of species within communities. In freshwater systems, the larval life stage, glochidia, of Unionida mussels develops as an obligate parasite on host fish gills or fins before transforming into the juvenile stage and dropping to the sediment to complete the life cycle. Because of the relationship between freshwater mussels and their often specific host fish species, mussels are not only limited by their own variable thermal tolerances, but also by those of their host fish. Our intent was to compile data from available literature regarding thermal sensitivities...
map background search result map search result map Understanding How Warming Temperatures Will Impact Trees and Insects Using Cities as a Proxy Understanding Habitat Connectivity to Inform Conservation Decisions Weather Suitability for the Occurrence of Mortality in Whitebark Pine from Mountain Pine Beetles, 1901-2009, Northern Rockies Study Area Projected past and future habitat suitability for 366 species, 1961-2099, using CGCM31 and HADCM3 climate models Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Developing Future Habitat Condition Scenarios for Wildlife in the Imperiled Pine Rockland Ecosystem of South Florida Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Incorporating USGS Web Cameras into the Phenocam Network to Enhance Scientific Understanding of Phenological Trends and Variability Tracking Forest and Hydrological Resilience to Compound Stressors in Burned Forests Under a Changing Climate A Prioritization Plan for Coastal Wetland Restoration on Moloka‘i Future Aquatic Invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How Climate Change, Human Vectors, and Natural History Could Bring Southern and Western Species North Advancing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for High Elevation and Endangered Lowland Coquí Frogs in the U.S. Caribbean A Prioritization Plan for Coastal Wetland Restoration on Moloka‘i Developing Future Habitat Condition Scenarios for Wildlife in the Imperiled Pine Rockland Ecosystem of South Florida Understanding How Warming Temperatures Will Impact Trees and Insects Using Cities as a Proxy Weather Suitability for the Occurrence of Mortality in Whitebark Pine from Mountain Pine Beetles, 1901-2009, Northern Rockies Study Area Tracking Forest and Hydrological Resilience to Compound Stressors in Burned Forests Under a Changing Climate Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. Future Aquatic Invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How Climate Change, Human Vectors, and Natural History Could Bring Southern and Western Species North Understanding Habitat Connectivity to Inform Conservation Decisions Projected past and future habitat suitability for 366 species, 1961-2099, using CGCM31 and HADCM3 climate models Incorporating USGS Web Cameras into the Phenocam Network to Enhance Scientific Understanding of Phenological Trends and Variability