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Understanding the physiological impacts of climate change on arid lands species is a critical step towards ensuring the resilience and persistence of such species under changing temperature and moisture regimes. Varying degrees of vulnerability among different species will largely determine their future distributions in the face of climate change. Studies have indicated that Northern Mexico and the Southwestern United States are likely to become climate change hotspots, experiencing significantly drier and warmer average conditions by the end of the 21st century. However, relatively few studies have examined specifically the physiological effects of climate change on species inhabiting this region. This manuscript...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: California, New Mexico, plants, Baja California, adaptation, All tags...
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Forests are of tremendous ecological and economic importance. They provide natural places for recreation, clean drinking water, and important habitats for fish and wildlife. However, the warmer temperatures and harsher droughts in the west that are related to climate change are causing die-offs of many trees. Outbreaks of insects, like the mountain pine beetle, that kill trees are also more likely in warmer, drier conditions. To maintain healthy and functioning forest ecosystems, one action forest managers can take is to make management decisions that will help forests adapt to future climate change. However, adaptation is a process based on genetic change and few tools are currently available for managers to use...
Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0173844): Urban habitats are characterized by impervious surfaces, which increase temperatures and reduce water availability to plants. The effects of these conditions on herbivorous insects are not well understood, but may provide insight into future conditions. Three primary hypotheses have been proposed to explain why multiple herbivorous arthropods are more abundant and damaging in cities, and support has been found for each. First, less complex vegetation may reduce biological control of pests. Second, plant stress can increase plant quality for pests. And third, urban warming can directly increase pest fitness and abundance. These...
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Estimates of the probability of mortality in whitebark pine from mountain pine beetles as determined from a logistic generalized additive model of the presence of mortality as functions of the number of trees killed last year, the percent whitebark pine in each cell, minimum winter temperature, average fall temperature, average April - Aug temperature, and cummulative current and previous year summer precipitation. Analysis was done at a 1 km grid cell resolution. Data are a list of points in comma separated text format. Point coordinates are the center of each 1 km grid cell.
Five alcoves (rock shelters) in the Forty-Mile Canyon—Willow Gulch area of the Escalante River Basin in southeastern Utah yielded rich deposits of late Quaternary macrobotanical remains. The deposits were sampled and the contents identified in order to construct a chronology of vegetational change. Fourteen radiocarbon dates indicate that the fossils were deposited between 12,690 and 7510 yr B.P. (years before present). Ninety-one plant taxa were identified, 62 to species. Six species were common to all alcoves: Gambel oak (Quercus gambelii), box-elder (Acer negundo), prickly pear (Opuntia subgenus Platyopuntia), skunkbush (Rhus aromatica var. trilobata), serviceberry (Amelanchier utahensis), and Indian ricegrass...
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Determining which species, habitats, or ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate change enables resource managers to better set priorities for conservation action. To address the need for information on vulnerability, this research project will leverage the expertise of university partners to inform the North Central Climate Science Center on how to best assess the vulnerability of elements of biodiversity to climate and land use change in order to inform the development and implementation of management options. Outcomes from this activity will include 1) a framework for modeling vegetation type and species response to climate and land use change, 2) an evaluation of existing alternative vegetation and species...
Exposure (vulnerability) index for the future time period (2061-2080) representing projected climate conditions from the Meteorological Research Institute's Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, version 3, and the rcp85 emissions scenario. The exposure model uses LANDFIRE vegetation data and Worldclim climate data .The raster values represent exposure scores for the corresponding vegetation type. The modeled vegetation types can be spatially associated with the exposure values by overlaying them with the "landfire_veg_sw_300m.tif" raster.Exposure values represent where the location falls in climate space relative to its recent historical distribution:5 (core 5% of historical climate space); 10 (5 -...
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Covering 120 million acres across 14 western states and 3 Canadian provinces, sagebrush provides critical habitat for species such as pronghorn, mule deer, and sage-grouse – a species of conservation concern. The future of these and other species is closely tied to the future of sagebrush. Yet this important ecosystem has already been affected by fire, invasive species, land use conversion, and now, climate change. In the western U.S., temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing. However, there is currently a limited ability to anticipate the impacts of climate change on sagebrush. Current methods suffer from a range of weakness that limits the reliability of results. In fact, the current uncertainty...
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Hawaiʻi is considered a worldwide biodiversity hotspot, with nearly 90 percent of its native plants found nowhere else in the world. However, about half of these native plants are imperiled by threats including human development, non-native species, and climate change. Through this project, scientists modeled the relative vulnerability of over 1,000 native plant species to the effects of climate change. A panel of experts in Hawaiian plant species assisted with the development of the model and verified its results. From the model, researchers were able to develop a vulnerability score for each plant species and identify categories of species with high, medium, and low vulnerability to climate change. This information...
Abstract (from http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/11-2296.1): Physiological tolerance of environmental conditions can influence species-level responses to climate change. Here, we used species-specific thermal tolerances to predict the community responses of ant species to experimental forest-floor warming at the northern and southern boundaries of temperate hardwood forests in eastern North America. We then compared the predictive ability of thermal tolerance vs. correlative species distribution models (SDMs) which are popular forecasting tools for modeling the effects of climate change. Thermal tolerances predicted the responses of 19 ant species to experimental climate warming at the southern site,...
The Hawaiian Islands are home to a variety of native species that have been subject to numerous threats including development of habitat for human use, predation by introduced herbivores, and competition with invasive plant species. In addition to these threats global climate change is expected to increase temperature and alter patterns of precipitation in Hawaii. This project models the relative vulnerability of native plant species to the effects of climate change, in order to assist resource managers in effectively allocating limited resources to efficiently preserve and protect current and future habitat for native plants. We modeled vulnerability by creating an expert system – a network model linking biological...
Population changes and shifts in geographic range boundaries induced by climate change have been documented for many insect species. On the basis of such studies, ecological forecasting models predict that, in the absence of dispersal and resource barriers, many species will exhibit large shifts in abundance and geographic range in response to warming. However, species are composed of individual populations, which may be subject to different selection pressures and therefore may be differentially responsive to environmental change. Asystematic responses across populations and species to warming will alter ecological communities differently across space. Common garden experiments can provide a more mechanistic understanding...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0088.1): A comprehensive understanding of the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal patterns in cloud cover frequency over the Hawaiian Islands was developed using high-resolution image data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. The Terra and Aqua MODIS cloud mask products, which provide the confidence that a given 1-km pixel is unobstructed by cloud, were obtained for the entire MODIS time series (10-plus years) over the main Hawaiian Islands. Monthly statistics were generated from the daily cloud mask data, including mean cloud cover...
(1) This written report summarizes and synthesizes results of literature review, interviews, and workshops, providing the scientific basis for and extension strategies for the management recommendations provided in the "green website" [Data Input New Collection]. The report includes an addendum regarding reference bibliographies and a references list with citations. (2) Selected, unusual references that are not readily available online or through standard academic sources were collected by the project. (3) Selected photographs are retained by the project in electronic form.


map background search result map search result map Assessing the Vulnerability of Vegetation to Future Climate in the North Central U.S. Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Probability of Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle, 1997-2009, Northern Rockies Study Area Physiological Effects of Climate Change on Species within the Desert LCC Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Probability of Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle, 1997-2009, Northern Rockies Study Area Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Physiological Effects of Climate Change on Species within the Desert LCC Assessing the Vulnerability of Vegetation to Future Climate in the North Central U.S.