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Contemporary observations suggest that water may disappear entirely from portions of some North Slope stream-beds during periods of drought or low flow. Climate models project even drier summers in the future. This could pose a problem for migrating fish that must be able to move back and forth from breeding and summer feeding areas to scarce overwintering sites. This work uses the best available long-term hydrologic data set for the North Slope (in the upper Kuparuk River watershed) to develop a model to assess the vulnerability of stream systems to periodic drought, and the vulnerability of migrating fish to a loss of stream connectivity.
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Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) have a life-history strategy specifically adapted to the extreme climate of the North. These fish migrate to spawning grounds just after breakup in the spring, then migrate to feeding sites in early summer, and finally in the fall migrate back to their overwintering sites. The Kuparuk River is a perennial stream originating in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range on the North Slope of Alaska. Sections of the Kuparuk are periodically intermittent in that, during low flows in the system, these channel reaches appear dry. The flow varies between surface and subsurface in this permafrost-dominated environment, with subsurface flow being limited to the unfrozen thaw bulb around...
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Watersheds draining the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska are dominated by permafrostand snowmelt runoff that create abundant surface storage in the form of lakes, wetlands, and beaded streams. These surface water elements compose complex drainage networks that affect aquatic ecosystem connectivity and hydrologic behavior. The 4676 km2 Fishand Creek drainage basin is composed of three watersheds that represent a gradient of theACP landscape with varying extents of eolian, lacustrine, and fluvial landforms. In each watershed, we analyzed 2.5-m-resolution aerial photography, a 5-m digital elevationmodel, and river gauging and climate records to better understand ACP watershed structureand processes. We show that...
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There are many challenges in detecting precipitation trends in Alaska. The most substantial are the small number of observations, inhomogeneities, differences among gridded data sets, and differentiating between long-term trends and decadal variability. Analyzing both station and regional products will increase our understanding of where local trends in precipitation may differ significantly from regional trends, providing key information for developing better downscaled climate projections. These in turn, will provide insight into fine scale heterogeneity in climate change that may be important in determining the stability of key habitat features, such as wetlands and insect avoidance areas. As a by-product of...
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There is a great deal of interest in whether and how Alaska’s precipitation is changing but little agreement in the existing peer-reviewed literature. To provide insight on this question, we have selected three commonly used 0.5° resolution gridded precipitation products that have long-term monthly data coverage (Climatic Research Unit TS3.10.1, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Reanalysis version 5, and University of Delaware version 2.01) and evaluated their homogeneity and trends with multiple methods over two periods, 1950–2008 and 1980–2008. All three data sets displayed common broadscale features of Alaska’s precipitation climatology, but there were substantial differences between them in terms...
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Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shapelowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceedslake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, decliningMIT since the1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity towinter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data.Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last30years (2.4°C), withMABT above freezing5 of the last 7years.This is incomparison to slower ratesofwarming...
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Our overarching questions are: (1) How much of the river water and water-borne constituents (i.e. sediment, nutrients, organic matter) from the Jago, Okpilak and Hulahula rivers are coming from glacier melt? (2) How do inputs from these rivers affect the downstream ecosystems? (3) How will loss of glaciers affect these ecosystems? The study will help elucidate how inputs from glacier-dominated arctic rivers differ from unglaciated rivers, through a combination of ground work, boat work, and remote sensing. In Phase One of this study, we intend to explore the relationship between glaciers and coastal ecosystems. Our goal in this phase-one study is not to answer these questions conclusively but rather improve our...
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LCC funding for this project helped maintain a network of hydrology monitoring sites in a representative watershed of the Arctic Coastal Plain. The work was conducted within the context of climate change and impending oil and gas activities in the region, the latter of which is the impetus for focusing on the Fish Creek watershed. The project included two monitoring components:1) Beaded Stream & Lake Hydrology Monitoring (dominant habitat type within the watershed): in 6 stream/lake complex watersheds (Redworm, Hannahbear, Blackfish, Crea, Oil, and Bills creeks), continuous water level and temperature (in lakes, streams, and confluences), discrete discharge measurements, and continuous water quality (specific conductivity,...
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Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factorsis a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicitCormack–Jolly–Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010–2014. We tested for effects ofenvironmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in thespatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus truesurvival. Our...
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The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska is an important region for millions of migrating and nesting shorebirds. However, this region is threatened by climate change and increased human development (e.g., oil and gas production) that have the potential to greatly impact shorebird populations and breeding habitat in the near future. Because historic data on shorebird distributions in the ACP are very coarse and incomplete, we sought to develop detailed, contemporary distribution maps so that the potential impacts of climate-mediated changes and development could be ascertained. To do this, we developed and mapped habitat suitability indices for eight species of shorebirds (Black-bellied Plover [Pluvialis squatarola],...
The Adapt Alaska Collaborative grew out of a set of initiatives to promote climate resilience and adaptation in Alaska. On May 24 and 25, 2017 a group of participants (including representatives of Alaska regional, state and federal agencies and organizations) gathered at a work session to identify next steps to build on the momentum generated by these initiatives toward a more resilient Alaska. At the work session, three working groups formed around specific areas of effort, including a Planning Working Group with the task of identifying ways to streamline the many planning requirements associated with implementing climate resilience and adaptation strategies.The Adapt Alaska Planning Working Group looked at a range...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Aleutian Bering Sea Islands LCC data.gov, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE INDICATORS, All tags...
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This project provides a better understanding how linkages among surface-water availability, connectivity, and temperature mediate habitat and trophic dynamics of the Fish Creek Watershed (FCW). These interrelated processes form a shifting mosaic of freshwater habitats across the landscape that can be classified, mapped, understood, and modeled in response to past and future climate and land-use change in a spatial and temporal context. Developing scenarios of freshwater habitat change in this context provides managers and scientists with a flexible template to evaluate a range of potential responses to climate and land-use change. Applying this approach in the FCW is made feasible because of the availability of...
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This paper explores the impacts of shrinking glaciers on downstream ecosystems in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Glaciers here are losing mass at an accelerating rate and will largely disappear in the next 50–100 years if current trends continue. We believe this will have a measurable and possibly important impact on the terrestrial and estuarine ecosystems and the associated bird and fish species within these glaciated watersheds.
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Historically, available polar bear den habitat models have been based primarily on the presence of topographic features capable of capturing drifting snow. In any given season, however, the availability and precise location of snowdrifts of sufficient size to accommodate a bear den depends on the antecedent snowfall and wind conditions, and these vary from one year to the next. Thus, suitable topography is a necessary pre-condition, but is not sufficient to accurately predict potential den sites in a given year. To satisfy the requirements of agency and industry managers what is needed is a user-friendly decision-support tool that takes into account the current fall and early-winter meteorological conditions, and...
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Lakes are dominant and diverse landscapefeatures in the Arctic, but conventional land coverclassification schemes typically map them as a singleuniform class. Here, we present a detailed lake-centricgeospatial database for an Arctic watershed in northernAlaska. We developed a GIS dataset consisting of 4362lakes that provides information on lake morphometry,hydrologic connectivity, surface area dynamics,surrounding terrestrial ecotypes, and other importantconditions describing Arctic lakes. Analyzing thegeospatial database relative to fish and bird survey datashows relations to lake depth and hydrologic connectivity,which are being used to guide research and aid in themanagement of aquatic resources in the NationalPetroleum...
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The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaskaconsists of an extremely low gradient, lake-richlandscape that is characterized by a complex networkof aquatic habitats and surface features stronglyinfluenced by permafrost dynamics. Much is unknownabout the form, function, and ecological conditions inthis unique hydrologic setting. Amplified climatechange and landscape responses in the Arctic furthercomplicate the capacity to separate natural variabilityfrom land use effects that may occur with petroleumdevelopment. A comprehensive, multi-disciplinaryreview and analysis of recent studies and initialinventory and monitoring in the Fish Creek watershedon the ACP provided guidance to develop a frameworkfor future aquatic...
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Numerous studies have evaluated precipitation trends in Alaska and come to different conclusions. These studies differ in analysis period and methodology and do not address the issue of temporal homogeneity. To reconcile these conflicting results, we selected 29 stations with largely complete monthly records, screened them for homogeneity, and then evaluated trend over two analysis periods (1950–2010 and 1980–2010) using three methods: least absolute deviation regression, ordinary least squares regression (with and without transformation), and Mann-Kendall trend testing following removal of first-order autocorrelation. We found that differences in analytical period had a significant impact on trends and that the...
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Beaded streams are widespread in permafrost regionsand are considered a common thermokarst landform.However, little is known about their distribution, how andunder what conditions they form, and how their intriguingmorphology translates to ecosystem functions and habitat.Here we report on a circum-Arctic survey of beaded streamsand a watershed-scale analysis in northern Alaska using remotesensing and field studies.We mapped over 400 channelnetworks with beaded morphology throughout the continuouspermafrost zone of northern Alaska, Canada, and Russiaand found the highest abundance associated with mediumto high ground-ice content permafrost in moderately slopingterrain. In one Arctic coastal plain watershed, beaded...
Lack of complete snow cover for the past 3 winters in southwestern Alaska has forced agencies to postpone moose surveys due to the likelihood of underestimating the population/lack of comparability to previous surveys. Poor snow conditions lower the sightability of moose, yet, for most regions of Alaska, the variation in moose sightability during suboptimal conditions has not yet been quantified. Because scientists are predicting less snowfall in this region over the long term, we initiated research to estimate sightability correction factors (SCF_c) using radiocollared animals to apply to abundance estimates obtained via the GeoSpatial Population Estimator (GSPE) method. The Project Goal is to develop a model that...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2016, Academics & scientific researchers, Academics & scientific researchers, CALIBRATION/VALIDATION, CALIBRATION/VALIDATION, All tags...
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ire-induced permafrost degradation is well documented in boreal forests, but the role of fires in initiating thermokarst development in Arctic tundra is less well understood. Here we show that Arctic tundra fires may induce widespread thaw subsidence of permafrost terrain in the first seven years following the disturbance. Quantitative analysis of airborne LiDAR data acquired two and seven years post-fire, detected permafrost thaw subsidence across 34% of the burned tundra area studied, compared to less than 1% in similar undisturbed, ice-rich tundra terrain units. The variability in thermokarst development appears to be influenced by the interaction of tundra fire burn severity and near-surface, ground-ice content....
map background search result map search result map Fish Creek Watershed Hydrology Monitoring Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Operational Polar Bear Den Mapping FishCAFE: Response of an Arctic Freshwater Ecosystem to Climate and Land-use Change Linking North Slope of Alaska climate, hydrology, and fish migration Environmental and ecological conditions at Arctic breeding sites have limited effects on true survival rates of adult shorebirds Distribution and biophysical processes of beaded streams in Arctic permafrost landscapes Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate A lake-centric geospatial database to guide research and inform management decisions in an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska... Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 2. Gridded data analyses Predicting breeding shorebird distributions on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: Comparison of trends in gridded precipitation products and station records Drainage Network Structure and Hydrologic Behavior of Three Lake-Rich Watersheds on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska Predicting the Impact of Glacier Loss Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 1. Station-based analyses Recent Arctic tundra fire initiates widespread thermokarst development Developing a Long-term Aquatic Monitoring Network Developing a Long-Term Aquatic Monitoring Network in a Complex Watershed of the Alaskan Arctic Coast Integrating studies of glacier dynamics and estuarine chemistry in the context of landscape change in the Arctic Refuge Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Linking North Slope of Alaska climate, hydrology, and fish migration Operational Polar Bear Den Mapping Predicting the Impact of Glacier Loss Integrating studies of glacier dynamics and estuarine chemistry in the context of landscape change in the Arctic Refuge FishCAFE: Response of an Arctic Freshwater Ecosystem to Climate and Land-use Change Distribution and biophysical processes of beaded streams in Arctic permafrost landscapes Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate A lake-centric geospatial database to guide research and inform management decisions in an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska... Fish Creek Watershed Hydrology Monitoring Drainage Network Structure and Hydrologic Behavior of Three Lake-Rich Watersheds on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska Developing a Long-term Aquatic Monitoring Network Developing a Long-Term Aquatic Monitoring Network in a Complex Watershed of the Alaskan Arctic Coast Predicting breeding shorebird distributions on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska Recent Arctic tundra fire initiates widespread thermokarst development Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 2. Gridded data analyses Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: Comparison of trends in gridded precipitation products and station records Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 1. Station-based analyses Environmental and ecological conditions at Arctic breeding sites have limited effects on true survival rates of adult shorebirds