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Fire is critical to maintaining and restoring temperate ecosystems in the South Central U.S. As precipitation patterns and temperatures change in the region, managers require information on how these changes will impact fire frequency, and thus the species and ecosystems within the landscape. To address this need, researchers will use climate model data to predict and map future changes in fire frequency for Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Researchers will then examine species and ecosystem distribution data to understand the relationship between climate, fire frequency, and species occurrence. This analysis will enable researchers to identify potential future distributions of woody ecosystems and species such...
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Estuaries support valuable recreation, fisheries, and aquaculture and are dependent on healthy and vibrant ecosystems. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, estuaries sustain local economies through their high productivity. They also receive over 50% of the United States watershed discharge, and water quality within these estuaries is impacted by local management actions. Within these estuaries, eastern oysters serve as both a critical fishery and ecosystem engineers, providing vital habitat and filtering water which improves water quality. Ensuring resilient oyster populations is critical to the functioning of these estuaries, which support many species such as blue crabs, brown shrimps, and white shrimps. However,...
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Healthy wetlands provide buffers against drought, flooding, pollution, and other threats to humans and nature. Climate change imperils wetland health, including impacting the connections among wetlands that facilitate movements and prevent extinctions of wetland-dependent wildlife. One wildlife group of considerable conservation concern and vulnerability to climate induced wetland changes is migratory shorebirds (a diverse group that includes sandpipers and plovers). Many shorebirds undertake long-distance migrations and have experienced sharp population declines, partly from loss of migratory stopover sites. During stopovers, shorebirds are thought to need a regional network of wetlands, with connections among...
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The greater Mississippi River Basin drains 3.2 million square kilometers of land and spans 31 U.S. states. Ninety percent of all U.S. agricultural exports are grown in the Mississippi River Basin, and about 40 percent of the nation's total exports are transported through its major rivers. About 1.3 million people, accounting for $405 billion in annual revenues, work in river-related jobs across the basin. Ecologically, the Mississippi River Basin supports about 100 amphibious, reptile, and mammal species and provides habitat for almost 250 fish and 50 mussel species. Its floodplain supports about 40 percent of North America’s wading birds and waterfowl and over 180 National Wildlife Refuges. Yet, even with engineered...
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Integrating climate change into place-based conservation (i.e. focusing efforts on a specific place or region) presents a pressing challenge in the future success of biodiversity conservation. In particular, the broad effects of climate change can make it difficult to prioritize specific actions in specific places. Currently, Natural Heritage New Mexico, along with state and federal partners, has developed Conservation Opportunity Areas for New Mexico representing locations where limited conservation funds can be effectively used for the preservation of sensitive species. Although the existing Conservation Opportunity Areas represent a best estimate of where conservation activities are most likely to have favorable...
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The South Central CASC has made it a priority to focus on working with the many Tribes and Pueblos located within their region. Many of these Tribes and Pueblos have already experienced the effects of climate change and have found ways to adapt over time. With Tribes and Pueblos representing a major landowner group in the region having a significant role in water management due to tribal treaty water rights, it is crucial that they be involved in CASC work. The Chickasaw Nation and the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma became consortium members at the South Central CASC conception. Under this arrangement, the South Central CASC employs a full-time Tribal Liaison through the Chickasaw Nation and a New Mexico Tribal Liaison...
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Across the Southern Great Plains, increasing temperatures are expected to alter the hydrological functioning of the region by contributing to severe droughts, more intense rainfall events, and more severe flooding episodes. These changes could adversely affect human and ecological communities. The ability to better predict future changes in precipitation and the response of hydrologic systems in the region could help mitigate their negative impacts. Yet while today’s global climate models provide large-scale projections of future temperature and precipitation patterns that can be broadly useful for large-scale water resource planning, they are often not appropriate for use at a smaller, more local scale. This research...
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Investigating the complex natural and cultural resource management challenges we face today requires building diverse, interdisciplinary research teams. Robust stakeholder engagement is also critical for ensuring that publicly funded science answers questions that are relevant to natural and cultural resource management decisions. Early career scientists who learn how to engage with multi-disciplinary research teams and stakeholders in the early stages of their career have a competitive advantage in the workforce and can help develop actionable science that addresses critical management questions. This project built upon the successes of the 2014 Early Career Training to develop and host a week-long professional...
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The need to improve fire weather predictions for the southern Great Plains has grown in recent years, following a number of extreme fire events. While on-the-ground conditions that promote fire development in the region are still not well understood, research suggests that fire-friendly conditions are determined by more than just precipitation amounts or wind speeds. They are also influenced by soil characteristics such as moisture content, temperature, and human use. Therefore, fire weather forecast predictions could be improved by developing a better understanding of the relationship between soil characteristics and fire occurrence. With a hotter and drier future unfolding in the southern Great Plains, the time...
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The Rio Grande-Rio Bravo River is the second longest river in the US and is a critical drinking water source for more than 13 million people. It flows south from the snow-capped mountains of Colorado through the New Mexico desert, forms the border between Texas and Mexico, and empties into the Gulf of Mexico at Brownsville, Texas. The multi-national, multi-state, ecologically diverse nature of this river makes management of the resource a complex task, especially in the context of more frequent droughts, changes in land use patterns, and increasing water use needs. The purpose of this project was to review scientific monitoring and research reports and provide an overview of the state of the knowledge of the Upper...
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Over two-thirds of all landbirds (i.e. birds that spend the majority of their lives in terrestrial environments) in North America migrate long-distances to areas in Mexico, Central and South America and the Caribbean islands. Habitats within Texas and Louisiana support high numbers of birds when they interrupt their migratory journeys through the Gulf of Mexico region to “stopover” for resting and refueling. These stopover habitats are often in areas experiencing human population growth and are impacted by natural disturbances and climate change. Predicted habitat loss from sea level rise and extreme weather events coupled with mismatches in the timing of peak bird migration and peak food abundance may limit the...
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The Bonnet Carré spillway (BCS) is a flood-control structure along the Lower Mississippi River designed to prevent flooding in the city of New Orleans by diverting excess water into the nearby Lake Pontchartrain estuary. Alarmingly, the BCS was opened as many times over the past decade (2011–2020) as it had been over the six prior decades combined (1951–2010), with devastating effects on the estuary’s valuable fisheries. Because the BCS was rarely used in the past, there is little science-based guidance for state agencies to consult when trying to manage these events. In light of the unprecedented increase in BCS operation, this project will conduct research to understand (1) how opening the BCS affects Lake Pontchartrain...
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Climate change threatens to damage historical sites and disrupt cultural practices in communities around the world, including the South-Central United States. Researchers are now paying greater attention to the impact of climate change on these cultural resources, but currently little guidance exists for decision makers who are interested in protecting them. Because communities value and interact with cultural resources in different ways, effectively planning for their protection requires broad public participation. In the planning phase, this project will focus on (1) building relationships with researchers and professionals working to protect cultural resources, (2) identifying and engaging with tribal and marginalized...
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Since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost approximately 1,900 mi2 of land due to coastal erosion, land subsidence, and sea-level rise exacerbated by climate change, putting Native American archaeological sites along Louisiana’s Gulf Coast in danger of being destroyed. These cultural resources are crucial sources of information and represent the unique heritage of coastal Louisiana. Federal and State agency resource managers, coastal communities, and regional stakeholders would benefit from up-to-date science-based information on these endangered cultural resources and on climate-informed management options. In partnership with the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana, a team of University archaeologists, climate scientists,...
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Soil moisture is a critical variable for understanding the impacts of drought on ecological, hydrological, and agricultural systems. Yet, key research gaps currently prevent existing soil moisture measurements from being used to assess drought conditions and mitigate drought impacts such as wildfire outbreaks, lost agricultural production, and degraded wildlife habitat. In fact, most scales used to characterize the severity of drought, known as “drought indices”, don’t include soil moisture measurements, relying instead on atmospheric data. Current barriers to the incorporation of soil moisture data include a lack of consensus regarding how to best construct soil moisture-based drought indices, the challenges associated...
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Actionable science has evolved rapidly over the last decade, and the Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) network has established itself as a leader in the field. The practice of actionable science is generally described as user-focused, action-oriented science that addresses pressing real-world climate adaptation challenges. It is also sometimes referred to as usable science, translational ecology, and coproduction. Successfully carrying out actionable science projects requires a range of skills, mindsets, and techniques in addition to scientific knowledge. Those skills can include mutual learning with stakeholders, attention to social and political context, iterative creative problem-solving, and interdisciplinary...
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Drought is a common result of climate variability in the south-central United States. With increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation patterns expected in the future, drought will continue to stress water quantity and quality in this region. University of Oklahoma researchers have demonstrated that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a measure of long-term drought conditions, can help predict drought patterns at multi-county scales in south-central Oklahoma. The model forecasts future PDSI using larger-scale climate drivers, commonly referred to as “teleconnections,” such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These teleconnections...
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There is a growing movement within natural resource management to view wildlife health as a cumulative outcome of many different factors, rather than simply the absence of disease. This inclusive understanding of health opens the door to management options that are more creative than traditional techniques aimed at preventing or mitigating pathogens. The public health field uses a related concept known as the “health gradient” that suggests that the ease or difficulty with which an individual successfully fends off various health hazards depends on external determinants-of-health, such as income, education, and surrounding community. This perspective facilitates a harm reduction strategy that emphasizes actions...
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The warming climate combined with a century of fuel build up (i.e. burnable plant materials found in the forest) due to fire suppression are driving megafires that threaten life and property and are severely altering ecosystems. Many of these fires are converting large areas of forest to shrub fields or grasslands, termed “ecological transformations.” Although uncharacteristically severe fires are contributing to these changes, lower intensity fire is a key ecological process that sustains native ecosystems, increases ecological resilience, and guides climate change adaptation. Planned fires (e.g., prescribed fire) are the most efficient management activity that can be performed at scales large enough to address...
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Large, hot, fast-moving wildfires are an increasing threat to communities and to the watersheds they rely upon. Forest managers work to reduce the risk from these fires using forest thinning and prescribed burning to reduce the amount of fuel in the forest. However, these activities are expensive, and it can be challenging to identify which acres of forest should be targeted with thinning and burning treatments. The goal of this research is to improve an existing modeling tool that helps forest managers find the ‘right acres’ to target with treatments to help to reduce wildfire risk. Focusing on the Santa Fe Fireshed, researchers will first use different numbers of forest inventory plots to estimate how the forest...
map background search result map search result map Understanding Future Fire Frequency and Impacts on Species Distribution in the South Central U.S. Examining Soil and Drought Dynamics to Improve Fire Forecasting in the Southern Great Plains Soil Moisture-Based Drought Monitoring for the South Central Region Regional Graduate Student and Early Career Researcher Training II Informing Hydrologic Planning in the Red River Valley through Improved Regional Climate Projections Assessing the State of Water Resource Knowledge and Tools for Future Planning in the Upper Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin The Impact of Future Climate Variability on Shorebirds and Their Wetland Habitats in the South Central U.S. Developing a Climate Change-Informed “Conservation Opportunity Area” Portfolio for Sensitive Species’ Preservation Adapting to Climate Change: Trends and Severe Storm Responses by Migratory Landbirds and Their Habitats Assessing the Impact of Changing Water Resources on Migratory Bird Health and Management in the Central Flyway Developing and Testing a Drought Early Warning Product in the South-Central United States A Roadmap for Developing Resilient Coastal Shellfish Populations: Using Spatial and Process-Based Modelling for Restoration Under Current and Predicted Future Water Quality Conditions Tribal Engagement Program Building Capacity for Actionable and Interdisciplinary Science Across the Climate Adaptation Science Center Network Using Precipitation Climatology to Examine the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Events of the Mississippi River Basin Next Generation Fire Modeling to Inform the Management of Climate and Fire Driven Ecological Transformations in the Rio Grande Basin Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Loss on Native American Archaeological Sites in Coastal Louisiana Informing Forest Treatment Placement to Mitigate High-Severity Wildfire Risk A Fresh Set of Tools: New Information for Managing Fisheries During Changes in River Discharge Integrating Cultural Resources into Adaptation Planning in Tribal and Marginalized Communities A Fresh Set of Tools: New Information for Managing Fisheries During Changes in River Discharge Next Generation Fire Modeling to Inform the Management of Climate and Fire Driven Ecological Transformations in the Rio Grande Basin Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Loss on Native American Archaeological Sites in Coastal Louisiana Developing a Climate Change-Informed “Conservation Opportunity Area” Portfolio for Sensitive Species’ Preservation Assessing the State of Water Resource Knowledge and Tools for Future Planning in the Upper Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin Integrating Cultural Resources into Adaptation Planning in Tribal and Marginalized Communities Examining Soil and Drought Dynamics to Improve Fire Forecasting in the Southern Great Plains Soil Moisture-Based Drought Monitoring for the South Central Region Understanding Future Fire Frequency and Impacts on Species Distribution in the South Central U.S. Adapting to Climate Change: Trends and Severe Storm Responses by Migratory Landbirds and Their Habitats A Roadmap for Developing Resilient Coastal Shellfish Populations: Using Spatial and Process-Based Modelling for Restoration Under Current and Predicted Future Water Quality Conditions Regional Graduate Student and Early Career Researcher Training II Tribal Engagement Program The Impact of Future Climate Variability on Shorebirds and Their Wetland Habitats in the South Central U.S. Assessing the Impact of Changing Water Resources on Migratory Bird Health and Management in the Central Flyway Developing and Testing a Drought Early Warning Product in the South-Central United States Informing Hydrologic Planning in the Red River Valley through Improved Regional Climate Projections Using Precipitation Climatology to Examine the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Events of the Mississippi River Basin Building Capacity for Actionable and Interdisciplinary Science Across the Climate Adaptation Science Center Network