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Estuaries are located at the interface where rivers meet the sea, creating unique ecosystems with complex physical and biological processes. Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem services to people, including flood protection from high tides and storm surges, commercial fisheries, carbon sequestration, improved water quality, and wildlife food and habitat. Coastal wetlands are also home to hundreds of migratory and resident wildlife species including threatened and endangered species of management concern. Wetlands also have the unique ability to increase their elevation relative to sea-level rise, therefore protecting nearby communities from flooding. In California, prolonged drought and extreme storm events...
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Mountain ecosystems are at risk from climate change and may be experiencing accelerated warming relative to lower environments. Understanding climatic and ecosystem processes at meso-, topo-, and micro-scales is limited, and constrains our ability to accurately evaluate vulnerability, and assess responses under future climates. Of special interest for climate studies are upper subalpine forests, the alpine treeline ecotone, and the alpine zones. We will use case-study ecosystems to address climatic processes and ecological responses at topo- and micro-scales, including: 1) treeline ecotone and role of phenotypic plasticity in Pinus albicaulis, 2) rocky ecosystems and Ochotona princeps, 3) demography of subalpine...
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Fire size, frequency, overall area burned, and severity are increasing across many vegetation types in the southwestern U.S. In many cases, large contiguous areas are burning repeatedly at high severity, triggering vegetation type conversions (VTC), where once-dominant coniferous forests fail to return to their pre-fire state, often transitioning to shrub- or grass-dominated systems. Loss of these forests affects biodiversity, ecosystem services, and culturally-valued resources. The science and management communities, however, currently lack a comprehensive understanding of VTC in this region. This study will help identify and fill sizable research gaps by synthesizing manager observations and the current scientific...
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Native Americans are one of the most vulnerable populations to climate change in the United States because of their reliance upon the natural environment for food, livelihood, and cultural traditions. In the Southwest, where the temperature and precipitation changes from climate change are expected to be particularly severe, tribal communities may be especially vulnerable. Through this project, researchers sought to better understand the climate change threats facing the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe of northwestern Nevada. Researchers found that the Tribe’s vulnerability to climate change stems from its dependence on Pyramid Lake, which may experience reduced water supply in the future. This will potentially have negative...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CASC, Completed, Federal, Fish, All tags...
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Aspen is a highly valued tree species in western forests, but it has been declining due to drought, herbivory, and fire suppression. Fire suppression has contributed to aspen’s decline because post-fire environments provide more opportunities for aspen to regenerate, both by resprouting and by seed. Regeneration from seed in these post-fire settings is particularly valuable because it increases aspen population genetic diversity and resilience. However, natural seeding events are not common, and mortality rates for seedlings are quite high. Nursery-grown seedlings provide a promising alternative and an opportunity for assisted migration, but planting protocols have not been well developed and mortality rates for...
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Sagebrush steppe is one of the most widely distributed ecosystems in North America. Found in eleven western states, this important yet fragile ecosystem is dominated by sagebrush, but also contains a diversity of native shrubs, grasses, and flowering plants. It provides critical habitat for wildlife like pronghorn and threatened species such as the greater sage-grouse, and is grazed by livestock on public and private lands. However, this landscape is increasingly threatened by shifts in wildfire patterns, the spread of invasive grasses, and changing climate conditions. While sagebrush is slow to recover after fires, non-native grasses such as cheatgrass thrive in post-fire conditions and the spread of these species...
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The California Coast has hundreds of tree groves where dual management practices aim to reduce the risk of fire and to conserve habitat for overwintering monarch butterflies. As the climate changes, longer high-intensity droughts can increase mortality and/or limb loss in grove trees which causes an accumulation of fire-prone fuels. Moreover, these trees provide the critical habitat for overwintering monarch butterflies. Every year only certain trees in certain groves accumulate clusters of thousands of monarch butterflies. Should trees die or important roosting branches collapse, monarchs may not return in the future. The overall goal of this project is to understand how the dual management goals of fire management...
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Wildfire burn areas are increasing in the western U.S., a change that has been linked to increased fuel aridity caused by climate change. Recognizing that there will likely be even more large fires in the future presents an opportunity to prepare and adapt to the expected climatic changes. This project addresses three key science questions: 1) Is there a specific level (threshold) of fuel aridity below which large fires more likely, and levels of temperature and humidity that don’t change how these fires begin and spread? 2) if there is a fuel aridity threshold, how often has that level been exceeded in the past? 3) Do climate models predict this threshold will be exceeded more or less often in the future? ...
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Millions of acres of California’s forest cover have been lost due to severe wildfire and drought mediatedinsect outbreaks. These acres may not grow back as forests without management action, which could negatively impact carbon sequestration, access to clean drinking water, wildlife habitat and recreation opportunities. Various factors, including limited regeneration potential, hotter and more extreme climatic conditions, and the threat of reburning hinder forest recovery. In recent year researchers have developed numerous tools and resources to help forest managers prioritize where to reforest, and how to implement climate-adaptive strategies. However, forest managers lack the time and resources to review each...
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California is a world biodiversity hotspot, and also home to hundreds of sensitive, threatened, and endangered species. One of the most vulnerable ecosystems in California is the “sky island” montane forests of southern California, forests of conifers and hardwoods located only in high-elevation mountain regions. Montane forests serve many important ecosystem functions, including protecting the upper watersheds of all the major rivers in Southern California. Yet human use, invasive species, droughts, fires, and now climate change are increasingly threatening the sensitive ecosystem. A major obstacle to the sustainability of montane forests in southern California is the absence of a coordinated strategic conservation...
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Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as springtime flowering or migrations between summer and winter habitats, that are often strongly controlled by changes in environmental conditions, including climate. Because species interact, shifts in one species’ phenology can have cascading effects throughout entire food webs and ecosystems. Recent advances have helped grow the body of literature surrounding phenology. We now know, for example, that invasive species often show greater flexibility in the timing of their phenological events, enabling them to outcompete native species as climate and environmental conditions change. Natural resource managers recognize that changes in phenology...
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Polygon shapefile depicting the critical habitat for the southwestern willow flycatcher. The geographic extent includes counties in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico.
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Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Southwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and their associated disturbances, will change across the landscape. Decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about projected future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An accessible and forward-looking summary of what we know about the “future of fire” is urgently required in the Southwest and across the country...
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The Colorado River and its major tributaries provide a crucial water supply for more than 40 million people in the American Southwest and in California. This water supply is primarily used in irrigated agriculture but also provides essential drinking water to many large metropolitan areas. Hydropower is also produced at many of the large dams on the river. River flows have declined during the past 15 years due to decreasing watershed runoff associated with a warming climate and ongoing drought. Climate projections indicate a continued decrease in future water availability as runoff continues to decline and temperatures warm. Water-users in the Colorado River basin are concerned about this declining water availability...
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The Mediterranean ecosystems of southern California are some of the most ecologically diverse systems in the world. The diversity of plants and animals, as well as high rates of endemism, make the area a biodiversity hotspot. High diversity in plant and animal species contributes greatly to the health and productivity of ecosystems, and plays an important role in the local and state economy (e.g. tourism, food crops, etc.). San Diego County's complex topography, highly variable precipitation and climate play a large role in determining the biology of the region. Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns due to climate change would alter the region's climate and add to other stressors such as habitat fragmentation...
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Few evaluations of actual collaborative science or co-production processes have been undertaken that can point to specific outcomes for either resource management or science decisions. Project researchers will assess a sample of collaborative Southwest Climate Science Center (SW CSC) funded research projects in order to evaluate the approaches used by SW CSC investigators to collaborate with agency managers and stakeholders; assess the management outcomes of these collaborative processes; develop a tentative set of metrics to measure the effect of these collaborations on management outcomes and the research process; and distill a set of best practices that improve both management and collaborative research process-related...
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The impacts of climate change are already being observed and felt in our ecosystems and communities. Land and resource managers, planners, and decision-makers are looking for the best scientific information to guide their decisions about adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change now and in the future. To address this need, a primary goal of the Southwest Climate Science Center is to develop actionable science – scientific information that can be easily used to inform these decisions. Evidence shows that more collaborative forms of knowledge development and exchange between scientists and decision makers tend to produce information that is considered more trusted and usable, and lead to higher-quality...
Riparian ecosystems are vital components of aridlands within the southwestern United States. Historically, surface flows influenced population dynamics of native riparian trees. Many southwestern streams has been altered by regulation, however, and will be further affected by greenhouse warming. Our analysis of stream gage data revealed that decreases in volume of annual discharge and mean peak discharge and a shift to earlier peak discharge will occur in the Southern Rockies region of Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah. These changes will likely decrease rates of reproduction and survival of cottonwood (Populus fremontii and Populus deltoides ssp. wislizenii), Goodding’s willow (Salix gooddingii), and boxelder (Acer...
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These data are daily climate, water balance, and soil moisture data for 270 plots in the National Park Service (NPS) Southern Colorado Plateau Network (SCPN) Inventory & Monitoring (I&M) network. Climate data was collected from a gridded, daily climate dataset, Daymet (https://daymet.ornl.gov/). Climate, alongside field-collected soils (SoilDepthsByPlot.csv) and vegetation information, were then used to drive a point based, daily, multi soil-layer, ecosystem water-balance model, SOILWAT2 (https://github.com/DrylandEcology/SOILWAT2). SCPN plots were established to capture the range of ecosystem conditions present in this network. Plant communities of the SCPN are a vital sign for this region, enhancing habitat, stabilizing...
Categories: Data; Tags: Arizona, Aztec Ruins National Monument, Bandelier National Monument, Chaco Culture National Monument, Colorado, All tags...
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The complex mountain and valley chains of the Southwest exert a strong influence on precipitation and wind patterns. Atmospheric rivers deliver some of the most extreme precipitation events to west-southwest-facing slopes of the mountains where strong gusty downslope winds can also spread wildfires. Climate change is making the southwest warmer and dryer resulting in more fire-prone vegetation and more frequent and extreme atmospheric rivers. Understanding this changing system is critical for managing water resources and wildfire in the region. This project will study how climate change is impacting precipitation and winds to create fire weather and drive fire spread on heavily vegetated slopes of coastal mountains....
map background search result map search result map Climate Change Vulnerability of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe in the Southwest Evaluating the Impact of Climate Science Produced by the Southwest CSC on Resource Management Agency Decisions Southwestern Willow Flycatcher Critical Habitat, Proposed 2011, Southwest USA Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Evaluating Current Projects to Inform Future Development of Actionable Science in the Southwest Improving the Success of Post-Fire Adaptive Management Strategies in Sagebrush Steppe Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs Understanding Fire-caused Vegetation Type Conversion in Southwestern Conifer Forests under Current and Future Climate Conditions The Impacts of Climate Change and Water Supply Management on Fish in the Colorado River A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests Daily Climate and Soil Moisture Data for the Southern Colorado Plateau Network Parks, 1980 – 2018 (ver. 1.1, November 2023) Future of Fire in the Southwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate California Reforestation Management Toolshed: A Web-Based Dashboard of Integrating Existing Resources Modeling Large Fires in Response to Potential Tipping Points in Fuel Dryness Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast Assessing Post-Fire Aspen Seedling Success on the Colorado Plateau How do Atmospheric Rivers and Downslope Winds Affect Wildfire Risk and Water Resources in the Arid Southwest? Climate Change Vulnerability of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe in the Southwest Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County Daily Climate and Soil Moisture Data for the Southern Colorado Plateau Network Parks, 1980 – 2018 (ver. 1.1, November 2023) Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Southwestern Willow Flycatcher Critical Habitat, Proposed 2011, Southwest USA Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests California Reforestation Management Toolshed: A Web-Based Dashboard of Integrating Existing Resources Improving the Success of Post-Fire Adaptive Management Strategies in Sagebrush Steppe The Impacts of Climate Change and Water Supply Management on Fish in the Colorado River Assessing Post-Fire Aspen Seedling Success on the Colorado Plateau Evaluating Current Projects to Inform Future Development of Actionable Science in the Southwest Future of Fire in the Southwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate How do Atmospheric Rivers and Downslope Winds Affect Wildfire Risk and Water Resources in the Arid Southwest? Modeling Large Fires in Response to Potential Tipping Points in Fuel Dryness Evaluating the Impact of Climate Science Produced by the Southwest CSC on Resource Management Agency Decisions Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs Understanding Fire-caused Vegetation Type Conversion in Southwestern Conifer Forests under Current and Future Climate Conditions