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A coupled hydrogeophysical forward and inverse modeling approach is developed to illustrate the ability of frequency-domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data to characterize subsurface physical properties associated with sublacustrine permafrost thaw during lake-talik formation. Numerical modeling scenarios are evaluated that consider non-isothermal hydrologic responses to variable forcing from different lake depths and for different hydrologic gradients. A novel physical property relationship connects the dynamic distribution of electrical resistivity to ice saturation and temperature outputs from the SUTRA groundwater simulator with freeze–thaw physics. The influence of lithology on electrical resistivity is...