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A table is presented listing: (1) USGS Gage Station Numbers, (2) Model Identification Tags, (3) Model Term Estimates, (4) Model Term Fit Statistics, and (5) Model Performance Indices for Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression (MLLR) Models estimating hydrological drought probabilities in the United States. Models were developed using streamflow daily values (DV) readily available from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System (NWIS) and mean monthly streamflows readily computed from NWIS streamflow DV. Models were prepared for 9,144 sites throughout the United States as described in: Modeling Summer Month Hydrological Drought Probabilities In The United States Using Antecedent Flow Conditions...
Water-resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water-resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within...
Human activities that may affect the flow of water through river systems include diversion of water from one river basin to another, creation of artificial reservoir storage, destruction of natural wetland storage, and land changes that alter rates of erosion, infiltration, overland flow, or evapotranspiration. The effects of these human actions influence not only long-term average flows, but the magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods and year-to-year and season-to-season flow variations. These effects, in turn, have a variety of direct effects on man, related to availability of reliable water supplies for in-stream and withdrawal uses and to magnitude and frequency of flood damages. They also affect geomorphic...
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This metadata record describes monthly estimates of natural baseflow for 15,866 stream reaches, defined by the National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2.0 (NHDPlusV2), in the Delaware River Basin for the period 1950-2015. A statistical machine learning technique - random forest modeling (Liaw and Wiener, 2018; R Core Team, 2020) - was applied to estimate natural flows using about 150 potential predictor variables (Miller and others, 2018). Calibration data used for the random forest model are available from (Foks and others, 2020). Each model was run twice, first using all potential predictor variables, which represents a "full" model run, and a second time using the top 20 predictors from the original run, which...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169414010087): Monthly calibrated values of the Hamon PET coefficient ( C) are determined for 109,951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The calibrated coefficient values are determined by matching calculated mean monthly Hamon PET to mean monthly free-water surface evaporation. For most locations and months the calibrated coefficients are larger than the standard value reported by Hamon. The largest changes in the coefficients were for the late winter/early spring and fall months, whereas the smallest changes were for the summer months. Comparisons of PET computed using the standard value of C and computed...
This article describes the development of a calibrated hydrologic model for the Blue River watershed (867 km2) in Summit County, Colorado. This watershed provides drinking water to over a third of Colorado?s population. However, more research on model calibration and development for small mountain watersheds is needed. This work required integration of subsurface and surface hydrology using GIS data, and included aspects unique to mountain watersheds such as snow hydrology, high ground-water gradients, and large differences in climate between the headwaters and outlet. Given the importance of this particular watershed as a major urban drinking-water source, the rapid development occurring in small mountain watersheds,...
This paper describes how a hydrologic model proved to be a valuable tool to help interested parties understand impacts to four threatened and endangered fish species in the Upper Colorado River. In 1994, the Ute Water Conservancy District initiated permitting and design of the Plateau Creek pipeline replacement. The project was considered a major Federal action and therefore subject to the National Environmental Policy Act. Under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) entered the process to develop a Biological Opinion (BO) and determined that the project could potentially impact the endangered fish in the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River. The Section 7 consultation...
We review published analyses of the effects of climate change on goods and services provided by freshwater ecosystems in the United States. Climate-induced changes must be assessed in the context of massive anthropogenic changes in water quantity and quality resulting from altered patterns of land use, water withdrawal, and species invasions; these may dwarf or exacerbate climate-induced changes. Water to meet instream needs is competing with other uses of water, and that competition is likely to be increased by climate change. We review recent predictions of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in eight regions of North America. Impacts include warmer temperatures that alter lake mixing regimes and...
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Tables are presented listing parameters and fit statistics for 25,453 maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR) models describing hydrological drought probabilities at 324 gaged locations on rivers and streams in the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Data from previous months are used to estimate chance of hydrological drought during future summer months. Models containing 1 explanatory variable use monthly mean daily streamflow data (DV) to provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of monthly mean DV from the previous 11 months. Outcomes are estimated 1 to 12 months ahead of their occurrence. Models containing 2 explanatory variables use monthly mean daily...
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Tables are presented listing parameters used in logistic regression equations describing drought streamflow probabilities in the Northeastern United States. Streamflow daily data, streamflow monthly mean data, maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR) equation explanatory parameters, equation goodness of fit parameters, and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) AUC values identifying the utility of each relation, describe each model of the probability (chance) of a particular streamflow daily value exceeding or not exceeding an identified drought streamflow threshold.
    map background search result map search result map Terms, Statistics, and Performance Measures for Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression Models Estimating Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States (2017) Terms, Statistics, and Performance Measures for Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression Models Estimating Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the Northeastern United States (2019) Monthly estimates of natural baseflow for 15,866 stream reaches, defined by the National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2.0 (NHDPlusV2), in the Delaware River Basin for the period 1950-2015 Terms, Statistics, and Performance Measures for Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression Models Estimating Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the Delaware River Basin (2020) Terms, Statistics, and Performance Measures for Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression Models Estimating Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the Delaware River Basin (2020) Monthly estimates of natural baseflow for 15,866 stream reaches, defined by the National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2.0 (NHDPlusV2), in the Delaware River Basin for the period 1950-2015 Terms, Statistics, and Performance Measures for Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression Models Estimating Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the Northeastern United States (2019) Terms, Statistics, and Performance Measures for Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression Models Estimating Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States (2017)